Will Hillary reach 55%?
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  Will Hillary reach 55%?		 « previous next »
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Question: You know the Drill
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Author Topic: Will Hillary reach 55%?  (Read 2352 times)
I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« on: October 17, 2016, 12:47:30 PM »
I think it's certainly possible.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2016, 12:54:49 PM »
No, but I am guessing around 52% now
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Figueira
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2016, 12:55:12 PM »
Maybe, but probably not.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 12:56:31 PM »
Nope.

I think her ceiling is 51-52%.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 12:57:43 PM »
53.88% 
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2016, 12:57:46 PM »
No, not with third party support hovering around where it is right now.
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Cashew
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2016, 01:03:26 PM »
I would put it a tiny bit higher at 53%
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2016, 01:12:50 PM »
Yup. She's already at 50% in the polls, she'll be higher by election day, and GOTV will be worth another point or two. I expect her to finish at 55-56%.
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Spark
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2016, 01:20:37 PM »
She'd be lucky to break 45%
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2016, 01:23:03 PM »

pfff,  yeah right.

55% is kinda high, but not unthinkable.   Trump could go down into the low forties or even high thirties (maybe), but then there is the question of how much the third parties get.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2016, 01:27:18 PM »
No, too many people hate her because... reasons.
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Enduro
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2016, 01:42:05 PM »
No. Never.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2016, 01:48:48 PM »
Better question would be does Clinton surpass the:

Landon-FDR margin- 11,073,857
Goldwater- LBJ- 15,593-286
Mcgovern-Nixon- 17, 995,448
Mondale-Reagan- 16,878,120

If you assume a solid 04 type turnout with minor parties getting 5% total then you come up with about a 19M margin if HRC wins by 15 then the answer would be yes to all 4 but Im still thinking a high single digit win with a turnout closer to '12.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2016, 01:49:46 PM »
Will Trump break 38% would be a better question.
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SPQR
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2016, 01:51:01 PM »
No, but Trump will stay below 40%.
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Hammy
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2016, 04:21:50 PM »
No. Winning total will be between 47-49, regardless of who wins.
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AGA
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2016, 05:07:32 PM »
Of course not. Don't be silly.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 05:25:30 PM »
Very unlikely, but I think she'll break 51%.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2016, 05:36:37 PM »
Definitely not.

Too many voters are on to her outright dishonesty, her financial greed, and her raw lust for political power.

However, not enough voters to deny her the Presidency, since Trump has single handedly torpedoed his own campaign.

I would place her at 51-52%.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2016, 06:05:09 PM »
No way, there is too much support for third parties this time around.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2016, 08:58:44 PM »
No.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2016, 09:13:00 PM »
No. Her ceiling is 52-53%, I'd say she ends just around 50%.
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angus
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2016, 09:23:46 PM »
Who knows?  There's really only one poll that matters and that one is three weeks away yet.

I voted no, because I don't think any candidate will win a majority of the popular vote, although for at least six months I have thought that Clinton will win around 300 electoral votes.  Nothing has fundamentally changed over the last six months.  We have a relatively unpopular Democrat versus an extremely unpopular Republican, with alternates probably collectively collecting about double digits in the popular vote, all in an uncertain economic climate.  No one comes close to 55% of the popular vote.  Seems to me like 1992 redone, but maybe with a little more paranoia.  And drones.
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ursulahx
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2016, 06:05:12 AM »
I'll just be pleased if she tops 50%. Bill never did. JFK didn't. Truman didn't. Carter barely did.

Since about 6-7% of the vote is likely to go 3rd party, however, my reckoning is she'll just fall slightly short like many of her predecessors.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2016, 07:04:19 AM »
Will Trump fall below Goldwater's 38.47%?

And might he even sink below Landon's 36.54%?

(and no I don't think she will climb as high as 55%, though breaking 50% certainly seems possible by now)
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