The Presidency of Condoleezza Rice

[GoTfan]

Who do you all think will emerge as an early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination against Pres. Rice?

I think "Dean fatigue" will take hold. If Ellison runs, he'd be the left-wing flagbearer. O'Malley I think will represent the Democratic establishment. Warren wil be able to simultaneously appeal to left-wing voters and Hillary supporters. If Gabbard runs, I think she will be able to appeal to the left and Hillary supporters as well, in addition to being the "face" of the next generation of Democrats.

[Kingpoleon]

If Dean runs for Senate to replace a retiring Sanders, he might. Otherwise, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar are both pretty left wing, and I could see them fading out Rand Paul/Bobby Jindal style.

[Progressive]

2018 MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS

CONDI CATCHES HEAT, BUT NOT HELL, AND LOSES HELLER

2018 Senate Races

ARIZONA

JEFF FLAKE* (R)            50%
KIRSEN SYNEMA (D)      49%

CALIFORNIA 

JULIAN CASTRO (D)        53.5%
ROBERT REICH (D)                 46.5%

FLORIDA

PATRICK MURPHY (D) 49%
CARLOS CUBELO (R)        48%

INDIANA

JOE DONNELLY* (D)  51%
MIKE PENCE (R)              48%

MASSACHUSETTS

ELIZABETH WARREN* (D)   66%
CURT SCHILLING (R)                  29%

MISSOURI

CLAIRE MCCASKILL* (D)    50%
ANN WAGNER (R)                   49%

MONTANA

JON TESTER* (D)          53%
MARC RACICOT (R)            44%

NEVADA +1 D

LUCY FLORES (D)      49%
DEAN HELLER* (R)        47%

NEW JERSEY

MILLY SILVA (D)   52%
TOM KEAN, JR. (R)    47%

NORTH DAKOTA

HEIDI HEITKAMP* (D)   53%
DREW WRIGLEY (R)           46%

OHIO

SHERROD BROWN* (D)   53%
MIKE DEWINE (R)                45%

PENNSYLVANIA

JOHN FETTERMAN (D)       51%
JIM CAWLEY (R)                    47%

TEXAS

TED CRUZ* (R)    55%
WENDY DAVIS (D)      42%

VIRGINIA

TIM KAINE* (D)         54%
KEN CUCCINELLI (R)  44%

WEST VIRGINIA

JOE MANCHIN* (R)  53%
NATALIE TENNANT (D)  43%

WISCONSIN

TAMMY BALDWIN* (D)   52%
SCOTT WALKER (R)             48%

2018 Governor Races

ARIZONA

DOUG DUCEY* (R)          50%
RICHARD CARMONA (D)         47%

CALIFORNIA

GAVIN NEWSOM (D)       59%
PETER THIELE (R)                 41%

COLORADO

MICHAEL HANCOCK (D)     48%
KEN BUCK (R)                        47%

CONNECTICUT +1 R

TOM FOLEY* (R)          49%
NANCY WYMAN (D)           49%

FLORIDA +1D

GWEN GRAHAM (D)      52%
PAM BONDI (R)                  47%

ILLINOIS +1D

Penny Pritzker (D)        53%
BRUCE RAUNER (R)           46%

IOWA

KIM REYNOLDS (R)       54%
ROB HOGG (D)                  46%

MASSACHUSETTS

CHARLIE BAKER* (R)     55%
SETTI WARREN (D)             44%

MARYLAND

LARRY HOGAN* (R)    53%
TOM PEREZ (D)               46%

MAINE

SUSAN COLLINS (R)     52%
MIKE MICHAUD (D)            46%

MICHIGAN +1 D

GRETCHEN WHITMER (D)  51%
BILL SCHUETTE (R)                48%

MINNESOTA

LORI SWANSON (D)    54%
MICHELE BACHMANN (R) 45%

NEVADA

CATHERINE CORTEZ-MASTO (D)  52%
MARK AMODEI (R)                           48%

NEW MEXICO +1D

HECTOR BALDERAS (D)     53%
JOHN SANCHEZ (R)                47%

NEW YORK +1R

DONALD TRUMP (R)       40% 
ANDREW CUOMO* (D)        40%
ZEPHYR TEACHOUT (WFP)   20%

OHIO

MARY TAYLOR* (R)   52%
JOHN CRANLEY (D)       47%

PENNSYLVANIA

TOM WOLF* (D)      54%
RICK SANTORUM (R)    43%

VERMONT

NINA TURNER (D)   46%
PHIL SCOTT (R)*         45%

WISCONSIN

KATHLEEN FALK (D)     49%
DAVID A CLARKE, JR. (R)  48%

Analysis: The biggest story line of Election Night 2018 was not necessarily the make up of Congress. Republicans only lost a few seats in the House, and now have a 53-47 lead in the Senate, shaved 1 seat from 54-46, with the loss of Dean Heller to Lucy Flores in Nevada. Instead, the biggest story was the election of 'outsider' candidates to prominent office. From 'carpetbaggers' to 'average Joes,' candidates on the Democratic line won prominent offices around the country.

Some shocking results include the election of Lucy Flores, John Fetterman and Milly Silva to the U.S. Senate, as well as Nina Turner elected governor of her newly adopted home state of Vermont.

In addition, Republicans lost numerous governorships, perhaps indicting her administration's handling of executive policies.

These results will have some certain effects on the impending 2020 primary elections. Voters on Election Night 2018 had a 45% approval rating for Rice, while 51% disapprove.

[Progressive]

CAN CONDI KEEP UP?

WINTER 2019
 PREZ SIGNALS APPREHENSION TO RUN AGAIN; WARREN JUMPS IN!

Rice sends 2020 signals to GOP leaders

In private conferences with top Republican leaders in the winter of 2019, President  Rice signaled that she may opt to not run for a second term in 2020. Citing her successes in transportation, infrastructure, health care, and national security, President Rice argued with Republican leaders that she did not need another term, since she "reversed the country's track, for the better."

But Republican leaders were supposedly apprehensive about an impending open primary, and grew fearful of a lame duck presidency coupled with a scramble for candidates to run for the White House.

Meanwhile, Vice President Cory Gardner has met with top aides as well as aides to Rice about mounting a possible presidential campaign in 2020. In private, Gardner has been urging Rice to make a "firm and final" decision by the summer of 2019. RNC Chair Reince Priebus has suggested to party leaders that the party could coalesce around Gardner in the way that Democrats rallied around Clinton in 2016.

Other potential candidates for the GOP nomination include close allies to Rice, such as  Gov. Donald Trump (R-NY), Secretary of State John Kasich (R-OH), and Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV). Some potential conservative foes include Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).

Warren is in!

Ending months of speculation, Sen. Elizabeth Warren announced to thousands of supporters that she was running for president. Interestingly, Warren did not mention Rice by name, possibly alluding to the fact that President Rice might not run again. Instead, Warren dubbed "Our America, Our Revolution!" as the theme of her campaign, with a focus on economic populism and a refined focus on diplomatic international affairs.

More 2020 news

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) has opted against running for president, as has former Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD), who instead is urging Sen. Cory Cory Booker (D-NJ) to run for president.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) is officially exploring and Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA) has announced via a surprise Tweet that he is running for president!


2020 UPDATES


Officially Exploring

- Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN)
- Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D-CA)
- Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)

Officially Running

- Former Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
- Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA)
- U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
- Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA)


Not Officially Exploring but thought to be seriously considering

- NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)
- U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
- Former Sec. of State John Kerry (D-MA)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
- Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
- DNC Chair and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)

EARLY POLLS SHOW A HEALTHY WARREN LEAD NATIONALLY, IN IOWA, AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

UP NEXT: CONDI RICE MAKES HER DECISION ON WHETHER TO RUN

[Kingpoleon]

I would support Secretary of State Kasich.

[Progressive]

ONE TIME WONDER

SPRING 2019 - RICE WON'T RUN FOR A SECOND TERM

In a live address to the nation and press, Pres. Condi Rice announced that she would not seek a second term as president.

Here is her speech in pertinent part:

"Americans know that I did not enter presidential politics to become, well, a political! Instead, I entered the race, and won the race, to secure America's future abroad and at home. I'm pleased to say that as of this point in my term, my administration and I have put America on the right track. We have largely beaten back terror cells and ISIS, we have restored America's faith in our once crumbling infrastructure, we have renewed America's promise to keep its citizens healthy, and we have reinvigorated the trust that American has for her leaders. Having accomplished what I set out to get done as president, I can say with gratitude and deep honor, that after careful reflection and prayer, I will not once again be a candidate for the presidency.

REPUBLICANS GEAR UP

GARDNER IS IN!

After Pres. Rice's announcement, Vice President Cory Gardner (R-CO) tweeted at @POTUS that he planned to continue her legacy hopefully as the 46th president of the United States. Gardner hopes to secure much of the Rice campaign apparatus, and end a potentially brutal Republican primary quickly by cutting off life to other campaigns.

KASICH READIES FOR THE RACE!

Secretary of State John Kasich (R-OH) announced plans to end his tenure at State in the fall of 2019, gearing up for a possible bid for the presidency. Kasich, whose ties to the Washington, D.C. establishment run deeper than do Gardner's, is hoping to catch early endorsements in Iowa and New Hampshire. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has already expressed potential support for Kasich.

CAN THE ESTABLISHMENT BE 'TRUMPED?'

Despite approval ratings in the low 30s, Gov. Donald Trump (R-NY) has signaled interest in the presidential race. In a shock move, the unpopular governor and business mogul took to Twitter to call Gardner and Kasich "nice guys, but lightweights."

--2020 CANDIDATE UPDATES (GOP)--


Officially Exploring

- Secretary of State John Kasich (R-OH)

Officially Running

- Vice President Cory Gardner (R-CO)

Not Officially Exploring but thought to be seriously considering

- Gov. Donald Trump (R-NY)
- Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)
- Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)
- Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)
- Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
- Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE)
- Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)
- Dr. Ben Carson (R-MD)
 
DEMOCRATS DIG IN

'HIZZONER' GOES FOR IT

To the chagrin of establishment Democratic types in New York, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY) has thrown his hat into the ring for president. He will forego an exploratory committee and instead will run full throttle with a focus on income inequality, possibly eating into Sen. Warren's message.

GABBARD, DEAN, ELLISON WON'T RUN

DNC Chair and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT), and Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) will not run for president.

KERRY SEEING DOUBLE

Former Secretary of State John Kerry (D-MA) is officially exploring a second bid for the White House. The 2004 Democratic candidate signaled to aides and press that he wants to potentially emerge as the "adult in the room option" to more populist candidates such as Warren or de Blasio.

TIM RYAN MIGHT RUN

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) who unsuccessfully challenged Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi in 2016, is considering a bid for president.

--2020 CANDIDATE UPDATES (DEM)--


Officially Exploring

- Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D-CA)
- Former Sec. of State John Kerry (D-MA)

Officially Running

- Former Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
- Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA)
- U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
- Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA)
- NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)


Not Officially Exploring but thought to be seriously considering

- U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
- Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
- Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH)

[Kingpoleon]

So, Kasich is the only person to be to Gardner's left, of those even considering running?

I am hopeful he or JBE wins the nomination.

[Progressive]

So, Kasich is the only person to be to Gardner's left, of those even considering running?

I am hopeful he or JBE wins the nomination.

There is a situation somewhat similar here to the Hillary Clinton vs. Joe Biden 2016 Democratic primary. It appears that much of the energy in the center/center-right has been sucked up. Watch for stars to emerge from the right, and not the left, in the GOP primary for 2020.

[Kingpoleon]

Great:
1. John Bel Edwards
2. John Kasich
Pretty Good:
3. Kirsten Gillibrand
Good, would probably vote for:
4. Cory Booker
5. Andrew Cuomo
6. Eric Garcetti
Would vote for if they chose a very moderate/good running mate:
7. Tom Vilsack
8. John Kerry
9. Xavier Beceera
10. Tom Cotton/Kamala Harris

The rest would probably motivate me to vote for the Libertarian ticket or something.

[bagelman]

2018 maps:

Senate: R+4 -> R+3

Gov

[Progressive]

2018 maps:

Senate: R+4 -> R+3

Gov

Awesome, thanks for doing that!

[Progressive]

MORE CANDIDATES? YOU BETCHA!

SUMMER 2019

Sarah Palin (R-AK), the former half-term governor of Alaska and 2008 GOP vice presidential pick, announced her candidacy for president along the US-Mexico border, promising to build a giant wall along the border, end hawkish military policies, and lift all moratoriums on domestic drilling.

When it comes to finding domestic energy, drill baby drill! When it comes to taking out ISIS, kill baby kill! And when it comes to building a wall along this lonely empty border with our friends in Mexico, I say fill baby fill!

Kasich Commits

Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kasich (R-OH) has officially entered the race for the Republican nomination, though to little fanfare. Republican insiders are growing concerned that the current GOP crop, consisting of three candidates (Gardner, Kasich, and Palin) has split the "moderate" or "centrist" vote, giving way to a strong Palin lead.

Polls show Palin leading nationally with 34% of the vote, compared to 25% for Gardner, and 15% for Kasich.

On the Democratic side, Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) has officially launched his bid for the presidency, and will reportedly focus primarily on Nevada and South Carolina, hoping to match an expected big win in Iowa for Vilsack and for Warren in New Hampshire with a surprise caucus win in South Carolina a la Obama in 2008.

According to rumors in Democratic circles, both the Obamas and Clintons prefer Booker to Obama, and Booker has soaked up numerous Obama and Clinton campaign alumni including Valerie Jarrett who will serve as a senior strategist and campaign chairwoman, as well as David Plouffe who will serve as campaign manager.

Final Crop

RUNNING (DEMS): Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Tom Vilsack, John Bel Edwards, Xavier Becerra, and Bill de Blasio.

Summer Aggregate Polling

IOWA GOP

Palin        36%
Gardner   20%
Kasich     11%
Undecided 33%

IOWA DEMOCRATS

Vilsack      22%
Warren      16%
Booker       11%
Becerra       4%
de Blasio     4%
Edwards      3%
Undecided  40%

NEW HAMPSHIRE GOP

Gardner      29%
Kasich        28%
Palin          14%
Undecided  29%

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATS

Warren       35%
Booker       14%
de Blasio      7%
Becerra        4%
Edwards       3%
Vilsack         1%
Undecided    36%

UP NEXT: FIRST DEBATES

[bagelman]

What? Nobody has cared about Palin in years. What is this?

[Progressive]

What? Nobody has cared about Palin in years. What is this?

She hit a nerve with angry, working class voters, so it seems

[Progressive]

SPRINTING TOWARD IOWA!

FALL 2019

The Republican Field is Set: a Primer

After President Rice's shocking announcement that she would not seek a second term, just three Republicans ultimately entered (and remained in) the race.

Vice President Cory Gardner (R-CO) expected to freeze out the primary competition, serving a the incumbent Republican vice president. But growing economic angst across the party, particularly among lower-educated white voters, dampened enthusiasm for his campaign. Vice President Gardner remains the overwhelming frontrunner in terms of fundraising, and he has soaked up many major endorsements, but not that of Pres. Rice.

Secretary of State John Kasich (R-OH) The former Ohio governor has found a niche of support among moderate and high income Republicans in and around large cities, particularly in wealthier coastal cities. Kasich is hoping that a win in one of the early four states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) will boost momentum.

Former Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) Perhaps the biggest surprise of the election cycle has been the support that the former governor has received in her bid. Initially thought to be part of a 'joke candidacy,' Palin has enjoyed support at the top or near the top of most polls.

Final Democratic Field: includes Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Tom Vilsack, John Bel Edwards, Xavier Becerra, and Bill de Blasio.

Iowa Analysis and Polling

Republicans

With the Iowa caucuses just weeks away, all three Republican candidates are scrambling for support in Iowa. The stakes are particularly high for Vice President Gardner and Governor Palin. With Secretary Kasich leading in New Hampshire, a win for either Gardner or Palin prove extremely helpful for improving momentum in the race. Gov. Palin has received the support of Rep. Steve King and Bob Van der Plaats, buoying her support among staunch conservatives and evangelicals. She was also recently endorsed by Dr. Ben Carson.

Final Selzer Poll:                39% Gardner, 38% Palin, 15% Kasich, 8% undecided
Total Aggregate Polling:      40% Gardner, 35% Palin, 17% Kasich, 8% undecided

Democrats

Sen. Elizabeth Warren appears to have a monopoly on the Democratic field. She has led in virtually every early state poll as well as national polls. Different candidates have had 'flavor of the month' moments. Earlier in September, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio was gaining momentum in South Carolina especially among black voters, though his momentum seems to have capped off. Sen. Cory Booker has returned to Iowa, where Sen. Elizabeth Warren maintains a lead despite favorite son Sec. Tom Vilsack remaining in the race. Is the race basically over for the Democrats?

Final Selzer Poll:               28% Warren, 25% Booker, 25% Vilsack, 9% de Blasio, 5% Bel Edwards,    2% Becerra, 6% undecided

Final Aggregate Poll:        30% Warren, 24% Vilsack, 21% Booker, 10% de Blasio, 5% Bel Edwards, 3% Becerra, 7% undecided

NEXT UP: IOWA CAUCUSES 2020!