The Presidency of Condoleezza Rice

[Progressive]

And so it began. After a devastating blow to Democrats on November 8, 2016, the former Secretary of State under George W. Bush, Condi Rice, revived Republican national political ambition by snagging a slim electoral vote majority and winning the popular vote by three points. Buoyed by the unpopularity of her rival, Condi Rice vowed to create an administration that was "effective, efficient, and swift."

And so it dawned on her. First woman president. First black woman president. First president in decades to not have held elected office prior to running for president. The gravity and weight of the office dawned on her.

Vice President-elect Cory Gardner resigned from the Senate effective November 15, 2016 to help his partner create an emerging agenda for their emerging administration. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) was licking his chops at the opportunity to appoint a Democrat to the seat. Sen. Chuck Schumer, incoming Senate Minority Leader urged Hickenlooper to consider former U.S. Sen. Mark Udall or U.S. Rep. Jared Polis. But Hickenlooper was considering appointing a candidate who could boost his national prominence by naming a senator who would make history. These include Colorado State Sen. Lucia Guzman, Colorado AFL-CIO President Jason Wardrip, and even soon to be former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, who was thought to be shopping around for a new opportunity. Hickenlooper is also considering appoint himself.

Meanwhile, Todd Young, Indiana Republican, won the senate seat in Indiana by 95 votes.

Total Senate makeup: GOP 53 - Democrats 47

NEXT UP: Demcember 2016 - Condi Rice and Cory Gardner Announce Cabinet plus Eye on 2018 and 2020

[Progressive]

THE ADMINISTRATION OF CONDOLEEZZA RICE

DECEMBER 2016

Throughout the month of December, President-elect Condi Rice and Vice President-elect Cory Gardner began to announce the formation of a new cabinet. Positions have been doled out as follows:

RICE CABINET

Vice President: Cory Gardner
Secretary of the Treasury: Carly Fiorina
Secretary of State: John Kasich
Secretary of Defense: Ash Carter
Attorney General: Kelly Ayotte
Secretary of the Interior: George P. Bush
Secretary of Agriculture: Kelly Schmidt
Secretary of Commerce: Mike Leavitt
Secretary of Labor: Hector Barreto
Secretary of HUD: Ivanka Trump
Secretary of HHS: Dan Benishek
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee
Secretary of Energy: Linda Stuntz
Secretary of Transportation: Marion Blakey
Secretary of Homeland Security: Peter King
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Lindsey Graham
UN Ambassador:  Shirin R. Tahir-Khel
Chief of Staff: John Weaver

EYE ON POLITICS

President-elect Rice's cabinet picks, all of whom were confirmed (Ivanka Trump had narrowest confirmation strictly on party lines 53-47) consisted of many sitting elected officials whose offices would now be vacated, including: Secretary John Kasich, Secretary Dan Benishek, Secretary Lindsey Graham, and Secretary Peter King, and of course, Vice President Cory Gardner. 

Therefore, the 2017 elections will include special elections for Ohio governor, senator in South Carolina, and member of the House in Michigan and New York, while the  Colorado U.S. Senate election will take place in 2018.  Other elections in 2017 include NYC mayoral election, where there is wide speculation that Mayor Bill de Blasio will be challenged by a strong Democrat and a strong Republican, including possibly Donald J. Trump. The Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are also heating up.

UP NEXT: Profile of big 2017 races, inauguration, and in the implementation of Condi Rice's First Hundred Days Agenda

[Kingpoleon]

Who does Hickenlooper appoint? Joe Garcia? Bill Ritter?

[Progressive]

THE RICE PRESIDENCY BEGINS

The First 100 Days

Nominations

All of Condi Rice's cabinet selections were nominated with full Republican and some Democratic support, except for Ivanka Trump, the controversial pick to lead HUD. Rice and her staff argued that Trump's leadership at the Trump Organization and her family foundations in New York City--and her keen understanding of urban issues--qualified her for the position. Ivanka Trump was confirmed 51-47, with the abstention of Sen. Joe Heck (R-NV) and the no vote of Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA).

Senate Appointments and Other Replacements

Colorado: In a shocking move, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) has named himself as the replacement for Sen. Cory Gardner, moving the balance of power to 52-48 in favor of Republicans in the U.S. Senate. For weeks, Gov. Hicknelooper was rumored to be set to nominate Rep. Jared Polis (D) or former Lt. Gov. Joe Garcia (D) to the seat. Already, there is rampant speculation that Hickenlooper could face a serious primary challenge from both men in 2018, though Lt. Gov. Garcia is mulling a gubernatorial race. Other candidates potentially include former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar and former Gov. Bill Ritter, who supposedly asked Hickenlooper to appoint him as an interim replacement for the seat.

South Carolina: Gov. Nikki Haley has appointed Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) to serve as U.S. Senator, replacing Veterans Affairs Secretary Lindsey Graham. According to numerous sources familiar with the move, Haley is fully expected to run for the U.S. Senate in 2018, and McMaster is expected to run for governor, as Haley is term-limited.

Congressional vacancies: MI-01, formerly represented by Secretary Benishek, and NY-02, formerly represented by Secretary King are considered pick up opportunities for Democrats, and may be top targets to determine the political pulse of the country come Nov. 2017, when there is a special election.

Ohio Governor: John Kasich, the former governor and now Secretary of State, was replaced by his Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R) who is expected to run for full term in 2018.

National Infrastructure Reinvestment Act ("NIRA" prenounced Nee-ruh)

In what many consider a surprise move, President Rice's first national initiative would be a 50-state infrastructure and transportation revitalization bill designed to repair crumbing infrastructure across the country and prove badly needed jobs to skilled and semi-skilled workers.

ORIGINAL DRAFT OF THE BILL: was supported by many Democrats in the Senate as well as the House because, in addition to the $229 billion in actual infrastructure projects, the bill included $22.5 billion in infrastructure retrofitting for climate change. But the Freedom Caucus of the U.S. House and numerous U.S. senators threatened to not vote for NIRA, denying the votes the bill needed and providing what would have been an embarrassment to the Rice administration, and to Speaker Ryan.

FINAL DRAFT OF NIRA: The revised bill was a $236 billion spending project in all 50 states heavy in rural infrastructure development, devoid of any retrofitting upgrades for climate change. Democrats in the U.S. House and Senate staged symbolic protests in the Capitol over the plan. Rice was heavily criticized in newspaper editorial boards for providing infrastructure that would now be unsustainable and susceptible to the dangers of climate change.

NIRA PASSES THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE, SIGNED INTO LAW BY MARCH 2017.

Carnival Freedom Oil Rig Crisis

On February 1, 2017, the Carnival Freedom cruise liner hit an oil rig and oil spilled out into the Gulf of Mexico, causing yet another ecological disaster for the reason. Making matters worse, the 2,701 guests on board and 1,150 crew members were in danger as rescue boats were unable to reach the cruise liner for weeks due to the danger of igniting a fire in or around the cruise liner. On February 19, 2017, the liner had eventually been able to make its way to Galveston, Texas. Two passengers on board passed away, and the extent and cause of their injuries was unclear.

Lifting Moratoriums on Drilling

In March 2017, President Rice and Energy Secretary Linda Stuntz announced financial incentives for states that lifted local moratoria on hydraulic fracking and other forms of drilling for energy resources. This highly controversial move is intended to relieve oil prices in the U.S. and create less dependency on hostile foreign sources of fuel. In a press conference, President Rice explained that this was the first step in winning the war on terror.

ISIS and the Middle East

President Rice instructed military forces to continue a heavy bombing campaign in and around Raqqa, the ISIS capital. In doing so, a U.S. fighter jet was shot down and one of the surviving pilots was held captive and tortured by ISIS rebels, in a gruesome video made public, leaving a stain on Rice's ISIS strategy. Still, despite the heavy civilian death toll, and unfortunate demise of the pilot, Rice acknowledged that ISIS' capacity in the region had become substantially weakened, and that the U.S. had cut off its major artery of weapons and energy supplies.

END OF 100 DAYS APPROVAL RATING (APRIL 2017): 53%

NEXT UP: FIRST DECLARATION FOR PRESIDENT IN 2020, PRIMER ON 2018 MIDTERMS

[Kingpoleon]

Ritter lives in Polis's district, right?

[Progressive]

THE RICE PRESIDENCY BEGINS

Spring 2017: A 'Supreme' Battle + 2018 Primer

In the wake of the Senate showdown over Obama SCOTUS pick Merrick Garland, President Rice nominated Viet Dinh, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney General under President George W. Bush to serve as the late Justice Scalia's replacement. But a battle brewed with Senate Democrats who decried Dinh as an "extremist" and a man who would put the United States on a dangerous path toward "ludicrous judicial policies."

The National Organization of Women (NOW) and Planned Parenthood (which could soon face the fiscal chopping block) staged a 1 million person march in Washington, D.C. protesting the nomination of Dinh who was thought to be anti-abortion and pro-traditional family values.

Ultimately, Dinh was confirmed 55-45, with Democratic Sens. Manchin, Casey, and Nelson voting to confirm, in addition to all Republican senators.

2018 Primer

A number of Senators have confirmed that they will retire in 2018:

* California - Sen. Dianne Feinstein(D): Former U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez, who lost to Sen. Kamala Harris in 2016, is considered a frontrunner, as is Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and on the Republican side, Treasury Secretary Carly Fiorina.

* Florida - Sen. Bill Nelson (D): On the Democratic side, former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) and U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist (D) are thought to be considering bids, as is former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) (and possibly his wife, Columba Bush) as well as U.S. Rep. Carlos Cubelo (R)

* Mississippi - Sen. Roger Wicker (R): no names have emerged yet as serious candidates.

* New Jersey - Sen. Bob Menendez (D): Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (D) and U.S. Rep. Frank Pallone (D) are considered frontrunners.

[Progressive]

Ritter lives in Polis's district, right?

Not sure, but, I will have a detailed primer on the 2018 Colorado Senate race shortly--including some possible surprise entries.

[Kingpoleon]

Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Tester did not vote to confirm Dinh? The former two are probably DOA then.

[Progressive]

HOT RICE

Summer 2017

Hurricane Gert - August 2017

A category 1 hurricane slammed into the eastern shore of Maryland and Virginia, bringing damaging winds and devastating storm surge to parts of Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia. Making matters worse, two drawbridges constructed as a result of the NIRA infrastructure bill were destroyed as they were not adequately retrofitted for hurricane-grade winds, a fact Democrats pounced on as a sign that Rice was out of touch on global warming.

While not quite as devastating as Superstorm Sandy, Gert packed a major punch to Washington, D.C. Schools in the District were closed for nearly two weeks, and the Capitol Rotunda sustained significant damage. HUD Secretary Ivanka Trump sustained substantial criticism for telling news reporters at a press conference that "D.C., in its effort for statehood, should prove its ability to address weather-related disasters." Speculation is swirling that Trump was fed the line by her father who contacted by Koch-related political activists in an effort to prepare the Trump family for a future in conservative Republican politics.

Meanwhile, 54% of Americans disapprove the Rice administration handling of the response, while just 35% approved. In the D.C., Maryland, Virginia area, 66% disapproved, and just 26% approved.

Community Agriculture and Family Farms Act ("CAFFA")

Rice signed into law that a bill that delivers massive subsidies to family and small farmers across the country for growing surplus staple crops in an effort to lower the cost of fundamental foods, offsetting, in theory, a reduction to foodstamps and social welfare spending.

In the U.S. Senate, the bill passed with the strong urging of Democrats Donnelly, Heitkamp, and Tester. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused Rice of "political payback" against cities and urban areas that largely went for Secretary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

The State of Politics

New Jersey Governor

Former U.S. Ambassador Phil Murphy (D) is locked in a tight battle with Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R), who has, somewhat successfully, distanced herself from her unpopular predecessor. Polls show Murphy with a slight advantage 46% - 43%.

NYC Mayor

Incumbent Bill de Blasio (D) is facing a very tough challenge from City Comptroller Scott Stringer (D) and Rev. Calvin Butts (D). Polls show de Blasio's lead shrinking. Meanwhile, businessman Paul Massey (R) seems headed for a big primary win. Massey is receiving substantial funding from business Donald Trump, who turned down a run, the father of HUD Sec. Ivanka Trump.

VA Governor

With incumbent Terry McAuliffe (D) unable to run for a second term, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) is the Democratic nominee and former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie (R) is his party's chair. Despite a strong performance for Gillespie in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against Mark Warner (D), Gillespie is substantially behind in polling. Northam's chances are likely buoyed with the failed response to Hurricane Gert by the Republican Rice administration.

[BuckeyeNut]

Congrats on creating such a disgusting Cabinet, Progressive. Also, well written!

[Progressive]

LEAVES OF CHANGE

Fall 2017

2017 Election Results

NYC Mayor:

Incumbent Bill de Blasio (D) survived a brutal primary challenge 54% to 43%, and went on to defeat businessman Paul Massey (R) with 56% of the vote, far less than the 75% he received in 2017.

NJ Governor:

Phil Murphy (D)   55.7%
Kim Guadagno (R)   42.5%

In what was seen as a rejection of the Christie years, Democrat Phil Murphy trounced Christie's would-be successor, Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno (R) by 13 points.

VA Governor:

Ralph Northam (D) 51.9%
Ed Gillespie (R)         46.4%

In what may be a troubling sign for national Republicans, Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam scored a six-point victory over Republican Ed Gillespie, signaling a potential favorability issue for the Rice GOP administration.

Manchin to Caucus with GOP; Remains a Democrat

In a move that shocked DC insiders, U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced on the steps of Capitol Hill that he would leave the Democratic minority caucus and instead caucus with the Republicans  and support Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to remain leader of the GOP-controlled Senate. Manchin, who was present on the steps with his family and Sen. McConnell, announced that he would "remain a registered Democrat." McConnell and other U.S. senators praised the move and touted the GOP caucus in the U.S. Senate as the "bipartisan coalition focused on making America work again."

It is unclear exactly what prompted the move, though sources have told CNN and other media outlets that Senate Republicans would not support a GOP challenger to Manchin in 2018. Democrats are actively searching for a primary challenger.

Shock Letter to Rice from GOP Freedom Caucus

In November 2017, 42 members of the U.S House Freedom Caucus sent a letter to President Rice, Vice President Gardner, and Speaker Paul Ryan demanding that Rice, Gardner, and Ryan work together to sign into law a repeal of Obamacare and defunding of Planned Parenthood.

Vice President Gardner signaled in an authorized interview to the press that the Rice administration would not focus on the "clunky bureaucratic maneuvering of undoing Obamacare," and instead focus on defunding and replacing Planned Parenthood money with an initiative known as Families First.

After the interview, Rice's approval rating took a nose dive.

RICE APPROVAL

September 2017: 50% Approve, 45% Disapprove
October 2017: 49% Approve, 46% Disapprove
November 2017: 45% Approve, 49% Disapprove
December (early) 2017: 44% Approve, 52% Disapprove [largest nose-dive among independent women who approved with 45% in November to 39% in December].

2018 and 2020 Speculation

*2018 N.Y. Gov: There is rampant speculation that Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) is gearing up to run for New York governor with the full weight and support of Rice and the national GOP. Supposedly, political insiders are egging on a liberal third-party to challenge Cuomo in both the primary and the general election.

*2018 V.T. Gov: After an embarrassing loss for Democrats in 2016, Democrats are left scrambling for a viable candidate to challenge moderate Republican Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT). Rumors are swirling that U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is recruiting T.V. personality Bill Maher to run for the seat. Maher, the sharp-tongued comedian would be making his first foray into politics.

*2020 U.S. President: Super PAC 'We Want Warren' has raised over $100 million dollars, none from Wall Street, trying to convince U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) to take a dive for president in 2020. Warren, who insists that such talk "just has to wait until after we win the Midterms" is widely expected to run.

Meanwhile, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) has formed an exploratory committee to run, as has former Obama Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (D-IA).

The following other people are thought to be seriously considering or have indicated positive steps toward running for president in 2020:

*NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)
*U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
*Former HUD Sec. Julian Castro (D-TX)
*Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
*Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)
*U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN)
*U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)
*Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D-CA)
*U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
*U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
*U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
*Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)
*U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
*Former Sec. of State John Kerry (D-MA)
*Former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-FL)
*U.S. Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO)
*Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
*Rev. Al Sharpton (D-NY)

NEXT: The full 2018 candidates list AND a major presidential announcement!

[Progressive]

Who do YOU think will run in 2018/2020?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Not bad, but how exactly does a Carnival cruise ship manage to hit an oil rig? Those things are kinda hard to ignore and the Gulf isn't exactly the snowy, foggy, iceberg ridden North Atlantic .

[Progressive]

ALWAYS AN ELECTION YEAR

2018 Begins

These are the final match ups, including post-primaries. There has been a relatively strong 2018 tilt against incumbents, though most incumbents have survived. It appears that voters are upset with the Rice administration. Pres. Rice has a 42% approval rating, with 52% disapproving.

2018 Notable Senate Races

AZ: Jeff Flake* (R) vs. Kirsten Synema (D)

Synema beat out Ann Kirkpatrick in a primary, 66% to 34%.

CA: Julian Castro (D) vs. Robert Reich (D)  

This Senate race is drawing attention for obvious reasons. Transplant ex-HUD Sec. Julian Castro, a newly-minited CA resident, beat out former Rep. Loretta Sanchez and L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti in an extremely grueling primary, but former Labor Secretary, Robert Reich (D) came in second place.

Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders has endorsed Robert Reich, also a transplant, run for U.S. Senate.

FL: Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Carlos Cubelo (R)

IN: Joe Donnelly* (D) vs. Mike Pence (R)

MA: Elizabeth Warren* (D) vs. Curt Schilling

MO: Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R)

MT: Jon Tester* (D) vs. Marc Racicot (R)

NV: Dean Heller* (R) vs. Lucy Flores (D)

Nevada Assembly Member Lucy Flores, an ex gang member and super-progressive, backed by Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, beat out former Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) for the seat in a primary.

NJ: Milly Silva (D) vs. Thomas Kean, Jr. (R)

In a shocker, labor activist and 2013 Democratic  Lt. Gov. candidate Milly Silva routed ex-Cong. Rush Holt and ex-Gov. Richard Codey. Silva (44%) + Codey (33%) + Holt (23%). Silva, with little name recognition, is not a prolific fundraiser and this raise is now considered a tossup.

ND: Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs. Drew Wrigley (R)

OH: Sherrod Brown* (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R)

PA: John Fetterman (D) vs. Jim Cawley (R)

Despite substantial support from popular Democrats including former Pres. Barack Obama and ex-VP Joe Biden, Sen. Bob Casey* (D) was defeated 51% to 49% by Braddock Mayor John Fetterman.

TX: Ted Cruz (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)

Ted Cruz defeated Cong. McCaul 57% to 43%. The NRSC has decided to not financially support Cruz.

VA: Tim Kaine* (D) vs. Ken Cuccinelli (R)

WV: Joe Manchin* (R) vs. Natalie Tennant (D)

After switching caucuses, Sen. Joe Manchin* was told by WV Democrats that he would be "primary bludgeoned" if he ran as a Democrat, so instead, he is running on the GOP line.

WI: Tammy Baldwin* (R) vs. Scott Walker (R)

2018 Notable Gubernatorial Races

MORE WILL BE DISCUSSED LATER, BUT.

New York: Andrew Cuomo* (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Zephyr Teachout (WFP)

2020 Presidential Election

Ex-Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack (D) and Louisiana Gov. Jon Bel Edwards (D) will run for president in 2020

[Kingpoleon]

Julian Castro can't win a primary like that. In California they have jungle primaries.

I'm looking forwards to seeing some Blue Dogs and moderates win across the board.

[Devout Centrist]

Julian Castro can't win a primary like that. In California they have jungle primaries.

I'm looking forwards to seeing some Blue Dogs and moderates win across the board.

Yes, only the top two move on. That race is impossible.

Plus Schwarzenegger is term limited.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Notable Senate races, unless I missed something, term limits have been added to the Senate and Schwarzenegger has reached said limit.

[Progressive]

Fixed...Schwarzenegger got the boot.

CA Senate: Castro (D) vs. Reich (D)

[Progressive]

INTERNAL STRUGGLES

Winter and Spring 2018

In the winter of 2018, President Rice began to receive a near-daily plea from Speaker Paul Ryan to complete the defunding of Planned Parenthood and fully fund the Families First Initiative. Members of the House Freedom Caucus, and other ultra-conservatives in the House, began putting pressure on Ryan to lobby the president to get this done, and Ryan in turn urged the president to follow through on her promise.

HHS Secretary Benishek urged members of Congress (both House and Senate) to "be patient" as the White House, Department of HHS, and state/local governments worked out a funding scheme to ensure that Families First could become operational.

Meanwhile, there is controversy over the logo of Families First, a partly government-funded, privately operated not-for-profit organization that provides breast exams, sexual and reproductive health information, and other things, but not abortion.
 
President Rice and Secretary Benishek's preferred logo:



Conservative interest group preferred logo (mother, father, child):



Campaign to end ISIS

Vice Preisdent Cory Gardner made a surprise trip to Iraq in March 2018 where he visited troops, placed on the ground, to destroy ISIS. In January 2018, President Rice and Defense Secretary Ash Carter deployed 15,000 troops. Thankfully, through March 2018, there have been no U.S. troop fatalities, and ISIS has indisputably lost ground.

Cyber Attacks in the U.S.

In April 2018, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced that cyber attackers based in Russia had hacked federal e-mail accounts in the Homeland Security, Energy, and Transportation departments. Attorney General Ayotte also conceded that the March 15, 2018 cyber attack that shut down the Wall Street trading floor for nearly six hours was sourced from a computer in Russia.

President Rice and Attorney General Ayotte announced the formation of a Cyber Protection Control Board, a joint agency between Homeland Security and the Attorney General, designed to protect major online assets. Still, Americans were growing anxious over the cyber attacks. Credit card information and social media pages have become increasingly vulnerable to hackers.

Americans overall disapprove of the way the Rice administration is handling the cyber attack issues. 55% disapprove, 38% approve. 65% say President Rice is not doing enough to address cyber security, while 31% say she is.

Department of Transportation Indictments Served

The doling out of resources from NIRA has not been going well. Several US DOT staff have been indicted over a scheme to curry favors from local elected officials in exchange for resources to repair infrastructure in various cities in Ohio and Kentucky. Neither Secretary Blakey nor Pres. Rice has been implicated.

Notable 2018 Governor Races *final matchups* * denotes incumbent

AZ: Doug Ducey (R)* vs. Richard Carmona (D)

CA: Gavin Newsom (D) vs. Peter Thiele (R)

CO: Michael Hancock (D) vs. Ken Buck (R)

CT: Nancy Wyman (D) vs. Tom Foley (R)

FL: Gwen Graham (D) vs. Pam Bondi (R)

Graham had no primary challenge but Pam Bondi beat out FL CFO Jeff Atwater, 59% to 41%

IL: Bruce Rauner (R) * vs. Penny Pritzker (D)

IA: Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Rob Hogg (D)

Gov. Branstad opted to not run for re-election

MA: Charlie Baker* (R) vs. Setti Warren (D)

MD: Larry Hogan* (R) vs. Tom Perez (D)

Perez beat out Heather Mizeur (who was endorsed by Sen. Sanders) 61% to 39%.

ME: Susan Collins (R) vs. Mike Michaud (D)

MI: Bill Schuette (R) vs. Gretchen Whitmer (D)

MN: Lori Swanson (D) vs. Michele Bachmann (R)

After a last minute entry, former Cong. Michele Bachmann entered the race to run for MN governor and won her primary handily, beating out a number of state legislators.

NV: Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) vs. Mark Amodei (R)

NM: John Sanchez (R) vs. Hector Balderas (D)

NY: Andrew Cuomo* (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Zephyr Teachout (WFP)

OH: Mary Taylor* (R) vs. John Cranley (D)

PA: Tom Wolf* (D) vs. Rick Santorum (R)

VT: Phil Scott* (R) vs. Nina Turner (D)

In a shock move, former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner, who purchased a summer home in Vermont in 2016, has run for governor of Vermont with the blessing of Sen. Sanders.

WI: David A. Clarke, Jr. (R) vs. Kathleen Falk (D)

Two controversial candidates have emerged as their party's standard-bearer for governor. More to come.

UP NEXT: 2020 Presidential Election news...

PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ASK FOR DETAILED BREAKDOWN OF A GUBERNATORIAL RACE INCLUDING PRIMARY, IF YOU'RE CURIOUS

[GoTfan]

Did Trump have a challeneger in the Republican NY primary?

[Progressive]

Did Trump have a challeneger in the Republican NY primary?

Yes.

NYS- GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Businessman Donald J. Trump                  66.4%

Chemung County Thomas J. Santulli         33.6%

Trump won heavily in NYC, Long Island, Hudson Valley, and Western New York (buoyed by friend Carl Paladino), while Santulli won several counties in the Southern Tier region.

[Progressive]

CONDICARE?

Summer 2018

President Rice's decision to (finally) sign the repeal of the Affordable Care Act was at first met with approval by the American people. After a drastic increase in premium costs, 50% of Americans supported a repeal, while 44% opposed. But by the end of summer 2018, the rate of uninsured Americans had increased dramatically. Initially, the uninsured rate dropped from 8.3% of Americans to 8.1% of Americans, but costs eventually increased again over the course of the summer, and the health insurance saving accounts began to cover an increasingly smaller amount of health care costs. By August 2018, 8.9% of Americans were again uninsured.

In other news, the U.S. military intervention in ISIS territory has largely been successful. Three U.S. soldiers died in combat operations, and two passed away from complications related to a deadly staph infection that spread through a camp in Iraq.

Rice approval: 43%
Rice disapproval: 52%

2018 Senate Race Rankings

AZ: Jeff Flake* (R) vs. Kirsten Synema (D)

LEAN REPUBLICAN

Rep. Synema has emerged as a tough challenger to Sen. Flake. Syneman has hammered Flake on Rice's ACA repeal, and has rallied Latino voters by citing Flake's failure to lead on immigration reform.

CA: Julian Castro (D) vs. Robert Reich (D) 

SAFE DEMOCRAT

Both Julian Castro and Robert Reich are Democrats. Neither of them have particularly close ties to California. Both were seemingly encouraged to run by outsiders. Fascinatingly, both men have earned very negative approval ratings, and a reputation as carpetbaggers.

Castro performs well in Los Angeles and southern California, while Reich leads heavily in northern California, and has received a base of financial support from Silicon Valley.

FL: Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Carlos Cubelo (R)

TOSSUP

This seat held by Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson may easily have turned Republican in a midterm election year. But the failures in the NIRA infrastructure law to address climate change have become a central issue in the campaign, and Rep. Cubelo (R) is on the defense.

IN: Joe Donnelly* (D) vs. Mike Pence (R)

TOSSUP

Sen. Donnelly, the incumbent, received accolades from white working class and rural Indiana voters for supporting the massive farm subsidies in the CAFFA law, passed earlier last year. But Mike Pence, the somewhat popular governor, has hit a nerve on issues of national security--Sen. Donnelly has consistently opposed military intervention in Iraq and Syria against ISIS, and Gov. Pence has gained enough ground on Donnelly, painting him as "weak," that the race is now a tossup.

MA: Elizabeth Warren* (D) vs. Curt Schilling


SAFE DEMOCRAT

Curt Schilling's campaign against incumbent Sen. Warren (D) has gained national attention not for his success, but for his vitriol and insult-driven effort to unseat her. He suggested in a radio interview that Sen. Warren was "an obvious lesbian" and ridiculed her "professorial, nerd style."

MO: Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R)


LEAN DEMOCRAT

Though she represents an increasingly conservative state, Sen. McCaskill (D) has neatly painted her opponent as a Condi Rice rubber stamp. Rice has a 46% approval, 49% disapproval rating in Missouri, and is likely providing Sen. McCaskill with her only shot of hanging on to the seat.

MT: Jon Tester* (D) vs. Marc Racicot (R)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Sen. Tester (D) has unveiled a very successful and notable populist message in Montana, which has been resonating with independent and Democratic voters very successfully. Tester painted his opponent, Marc Racicot (R), a former Montana governor, RNC Chair, and lobbyist, as a "Washington insider" and the "ultimate D.C. elitist." Needless to say, the NRSC laments that Racicot has failed to pick up momentum in this rather reliably Republican state.

Watch for Tester presidential rumblings.

NV: Dean Heller* (R) vs. Lucy Flores (D)


LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Nevada Assemblymember and political activist Lucy Flores (D), a protege of Sens. Sanders and Warren was considered the least electable of the Democratic primary bunch to face off against incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R). But Flores has struggled to raise funds and possibly made a fatal error when she snubbed a Spanish-speaking radio station debate with the incumbent.

NJ: Milly Silva (D) vs. Thomas Kean, Jr. (R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN

Labor activist Milly Silva (D) has trailed NJ Senate GOP Leader Tom Kean Jr by mid-high single-digits the entire campaign. 26% of Democrats opine that Silva is "too liberal" to their liking.

ND: Heidi Heitkamp (D) vs. Drew Wrigley (R)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT

Lt. Gov. Wrigley (R) has been dogged by admissions of extramarital affairs and paltry fundraising, combined with the fact that Sen. Heitkamp (D) has a record of bipartisan leadership on agriculture and infrastructure issues, as well as gun rights. The NRSC thinks it can pick up seats more easily elsewhere, and has pulled out of investing in the state.

OH: Sherrod Brown* (D) vs. Mike DeWine (R)

SAFE DEMOCRAT

If ever there were a troubling sign for the Rice administration, it probably exists in this Senate race. White working class independent voters hold just a 35% approval rating of President Rice, while 59% disapprove. The repeal of the ACA has negatively affected these voters, and Sen. Brown (D) is in a strong position to return to Washington, D.C. as a result.

PA: John Fetterman (D) vs. Jim Cawley (R)

LEAN DEMOCRAT

See the above analysis, despite Fetterman's low name-recognition. Plus, former Pres. Obama has campaigned for him twice in Philly.

TX: Ted Cruz (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

The most recent poll in this race had incumbent Ted Cruz (R) leading Wendy Davis 49% to 39%. These numbers are not exactly a clear blow out, but, Cruz holds the advantage in this deep red state. The NRSC has virtually refused to assist in any material way, and has not disbursed a penny of financial or in kind support.

VA: Tim Kaine* (D) vs. Ken Cuccinelli (R)

SAFE DEMOCRAT

Just like in 2008, in 2016 Sen. Kaine (D) emerged as the runner-up in the 2016 Democratic vice presidential search. With his eyes on 2020, Kaine seems headed for a landslide victory against the very unpopular former Attorney General.

WV: Joe Manchin* (R) vs. Natalie Tennant (D)


LIKELY REPUBLICAN

After switching parties, Sen. Joe Mancin (R) enjoyed Senate leadership posts and perks. But Natalie Tennant has put up a spirited challenge, considering the ACA repeal's devastating effect in West Virginia. Keep an eye out for Tennant.

WI: Tammy Baldwin* (D) vs. Scott Walker (R)

TOSSUP

Sen. Baldwin (D) has maintained very slim leads over Gov. Walker (R), and apparently has continued to lose steam heading into election day.

2020 UPDATES

Officially Exploring

- Former Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
- Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN)
- Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D-CA)
- Former Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)

Officially Running

- Former Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
- Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA)

Not Officially Exploring but thought to be seriously considering

- NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio (D-NY)
- Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO)
- U.S. Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
- U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
- Former Sec. of State John Kerry (D-MA)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
- Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
- DNC Chair and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
- Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)

NEXT UP: 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS

[Kingpoleon]

What are the details of CondiCare? Is it like Wyden-Bennett, BaucusCare, or its own thing entirely?

[Progressive]

What are the details of CondiCare? Is it like Wyden-Bennett, BaucusCare, or its own thing entirely?

CONDICARE BASICS

Condi Rice implemented Speaker Paul Ryan's 'Better Way Health Plan."

Mainly state innovation grants for each state to implement health care reform and market regulation plan. National health care exchanges were eliminated and automatically enrolled to federal-state partnership exchanges. The problem is that many of the state exchanges rollouts were bungled.

https://abetterway.speaker.gov/_assets/pdf/ABetterWay-HealthCare-PolicyPaper.pdf

[Progressive]

Who do you all think will emerge as an early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination against Pres. Rice?