Competitive House Predictions: NY-23 to PA-16 (+MI-08)

[ElectionsGuy]

One vote for each race.

Update/Vote in the previous threads. There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall results!

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6

Predictions



Safe R: 201
Safe D: 176

Competitive D: 24
Competitive R: 21

Republicans: 222✔
Democrats: 200

Gains

CA-25 (D+1)
CO-06 (D+1)
FL-02 (R+1)
FL-10 (D+1)
FL-13 (D+1)
IL-10 (D+1)
IA-01 (D+1)
MI-01 (D+1)
MN-02 (D+1)
NV-03 (D+1)
NV-04 (D+1)
NH-01 (D+1)
NJ-05 (D+1)
NY-19 (D+1)
NY-22 (D+1)

Overall: D+14

Cook has moved MI-08 out of the safe column.

My Predictions

MI-08: Mike Bishop (R)
NY-23: Tom Reed (R)
NY-24: Colleen Deacon (D)
NY-25: Louise Slaughter (D)
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R)
PA-08: Steve Santarsiero (D)
PA-16: Lloyd Smucker (R)

[Heisenberg]

Republican-friendly set.

One minor note. ElectionsGuy: You predicted John Plumb wins NY-24, and he's running for NY-23.

[Kingpoleon]

D: Colleen Deacon, Louise Slaughter, Christina Hartman
R: Mike Bishop, Tom Reed, Ryan Costello, Brian Fitzpatrick

[Xing]

Democrats pick up NY-24 and PA-08.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dems gain NY-23 (Plumb beating Reed is one of my upset picks) and PA-8, the rest are incumbent holds.

[Nyvin]

It'd be nice if Trump bombing hard in the Philly suburbs extended to the House races.

If it does then I'd say the Dems get NY-24, NY-25, PA-6, PA-8, and PA-16.   The rest go to GOP.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Gonna go bold and say no seats flip here.

[Maxwell]

Of the ones that matter -

Sadly, I think Katko holds on, potentially by a lot. He has done a good job of keeping the image of being moderate, while Democrats have not done a good job campaigning against his image.

Depending on how big of a wipeout 2016 is on the Presidential level, Costello will either be facing a close race or a knock out. My thoughts? 2016 will probably disappointingly not a landslide, and Costello narrowly hangs on.

In PA-08 and PA-16, for some reason I'm deciding to pick the Dems here, as it's probably easier to connect the Republican to Trump when they're not an incumbent.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bumping due to closeness of NY-24, PA-08, and PA-16