Will Trump crack 50% in Texas?

[Sbane]

I am pretty skeptical of Texas actually voting for Hillary. That being said, factoring in third party votes, will Trump get a majority of the vote? I see it going for Trump by 5. About 48-49 Trump, 43-44 Clinton and the rest for third parties.

[President Johnson]

Yes, barely. 51-45%.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

He'll get around 52-54%

[VPH]

Hillary will do pretty well at Trump's expense, with a decent Johnson presence. She might win Tarrant, Caldwell, Hays, Fort Bend, Waller, Brewster counties.

[andrew_c]

Doubtful. I could see Johnson getting a good chunk of protest votes here.

[evergreenarbor]

He could. I think he'll end up with about 49% of the vote, and he's as likely to crack 50% as he is to get less than 48%.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably, but does anyone believe it is even remotely possible that TX votes to the left of IA?

[Cashew]

No. I remain convinced more dirt on trump will be released.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

3rd parties will keep both under 50%

[Tiger front]

Yes, barely. 51-45%.

This.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think so, yes. I still doubt TX is turning blue this year though it will be much tighter than in the last few cycles. Trump wins ~52-44%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Probably, but does anyone believe it is even remotely possible that TX votes to the left of IA?

I hope not, because that's just silly.  IA right now is headed to a narrow Trump victory (1%), while TX will be more like a 5 or 6-point contest: 49-44-7, 49-43-8, something like that.  This is as things stand now.  If Trump continues to crater, Clinton wins IA easily, and loses TX much more narrowly.

[BaldEagle1991]

The real hope for TX Dems is if this holds for future elections.

[Nyvin]

The real hope for TX Dems is if this holds for future elections.

That will be part of the bigger national question of whether the educated whites (which Texas actually has a lot of) continue to shift to the Democratic Party in the future.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The real hope for TX Dems is if this holds for future elections.

That will be part of the bigger national question of whether the educated whites (which Texas actually has a lot of) continue to shift to the Democratic Party in the future.

It will also depend on whether the GOP's new brand of right-wing populism can find a footing among Texas's Latino population.  This is not as absurd an idea as one might think, especially with Latino men.

[Hammy]

Probably, but does anyone believe it is even remotely possible that TX votes to the left of IA?

I don't think it will vote left of Iowa per se--I can see Trump winning Iowa with a higher % than Texas (maybe 51-47), but a smaller margin, so Clinton's Iowa % would still be higher than Texas (with Trump getting something like 50-44 and a higher vote for Johnson).

[txguitar]

I live in south TX and there is a lot of Hispanics that live in the area and I know
quite a few of them, and they are terrified of Trump, also they are voting like
never before. I sure hope the "PIG" Trump gets his a_ _ kicked.

[BaldEagle1991]

The real hope for TX Dems is if this holds for future elections.

That will be part of the bigger national question of whether the educated whites (which Texas actually has a lot of) continue to shift to the Democratic Party in the future.

It will also depend on whether the GOP's new brand of right-wing populism can find a footing among Texas's Latino population.  This is not as absurd an idea as one might think, especially with Latino men.

It has but I think Texas Latino men have been a swing voter here in the state. I think a lot of them might be turned off by it now cause Trump has uncovered a lot of the GOP.

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure at this point.

[indysaff]

No.

[Holmes]

Hillary will do pretty well at Trump's expense, with a decent Johnson presence. She might win Tarrant, Caldwell, Hays, Fort Bend, Waller, Brewster counties.

If Hillary carries Tarrant then she very well probably carries the state.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I predicted he would get around 52-54%.

I think he'll end up bottoming out at 49-51%

[Badger]

Hillary will do pretty well at Trump's expense, with a decent Johnson presence. She might win Tarrant, Caldwell, Hays, Fort Bend, Waller, Brewster counties.

If Hillary carries Tarrant then she very well probably carries the state.

Tarrant has traditionally been a good bellwether county, but due to rapidly shiftin g support bases and demographics I believe it'll trend markedly Democratic.

[NOVA Green]

I live in south TX and there is a lot of Hispanics that live in the area and I know
quite a few of them, and they are terrified of Trump, also they are voting like
never before. I sure hope the "PIG" Trump gets his a_ _ kicked.

Hey txguitar----

First off welcome to the forum, seeing that you have only posted a few times before.

It's awesome to see more native sons of Texas pop up and share their insights into wtf is going on in Texas these days, regardless of political background and partisan affiliation.

I left Texas back in November of '15 before the Democratic/Republican Primaries, when many Texans weren't paying much attention to the election.

As a Senior Manager, at one point I was directly responsible for a team of over (100) employees at a large corporate account at site in Houston with over 9,000 tenants and customers for a Fortune 50 Company.

The vast majority of our employee base were Latinos, primarily of Mexican-American backgrounds, and to a lesser extent Central Americans (Salvadorans and Guatemalans).

In the smoking areas that were heavily Middle-Aged and Older Anglos, even back then Trump was an extremely controversial figure, and my boss actually put up a Trump bumper sticker in his cube shortly after Trump promoted mass deportations!!!

I escalated to HR regarding Management expressing personal political opinions in client-customer site, when the vast majority of our employees were Latino/Mexican-Americans. Unfortunately, my employer had no official policy that prohibited employees placing personal political expressions even in a client-facing environment.

Meanwhile, most of the Latino employees weren't paying much attention to national politics, although almost all of my (10()supervisors were Latinos that I talked with more frequently than many of the workers down the line, many of whom were getting paid Texas minimum wage.

Before I left Texas, I was able to push the minimum hourly wage towards a prevailing industry wage for employees within the company.

Although I left Texas prior to Election Season, what Trump has said and expressed regarding the proud contributions that Mexican-Americans and Tejanos have made not only towards the Texas Revolution against the dictatorship of Mexico way back in the days, but even further insulted the sons and daughters and parents that are proud Americans who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, is not only disgusting but also created an extremely negative perception towards the Republican Party in general, where at least in Texas used to be accepting of all those "tired and yearning to be free".

Most of the line workers will typically have lower voter turnout rates (But increasingly energized this election), but many other Texas Middle-Class Latinos with higher turnout rates will shift heavily Democrat for the 2016 General Election.

[Ebowed]

Looks like Clinton is heading towards a victory here.