Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A little over 20% in.  What I said before appears to have been a false alarm.  The results now are looking interesting and telling, but not nearly as stunning.

Give us a hint.  Maybe like PPP sometimes does and suggest a D happiness level (or an R happiness level if you prefer).

It can change based on the remaining 80% of the responses, but I would give this a D happiness level of a 2-3 right now (R happiness of a 6-7, L happiness of a 8-9).

[cinyc]

Thoughts on weighting:

1) Because they are one-question surveys, just polling the candidates makes the GCS poll a poll of adult Internet users, no matter how you weight them.

2)  Adding an option for "not registered in X state" and/or "not likely to vote in X state" is just a poor way to make them RV/LV polls.  In an ideal world, those options should probably be asked as a separate question to make sure respondents see the choice.  But that's expensive.  And including those options lowers the number of usable responses, increasing the MoE.

3) We can weight the one-question polls to RV/LV, but they're still polls of adult Internet users at heart.  At least Google's own weighting (when it works) takes into account geographic distribution, age and sex.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Commissioned a 333 Montana poll, just under 20% in and looking about how you'd expect (except for Stein/de la Roque)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we weight them, again?  Since it still has a ways to go to get to 333, I was thinking of providing pre-debate and post-debate numbers, along with an overall total.

[cinyc]

How do we weight them, again?  Since it still has a ways to go to get to 333, I was thinking of providing pre-debate and post-debate numbers, along with an overall total.

The sample's probably too small to do that.  Even 333 is a somewhat small sample for a poll.  And, after weighting, the 333 is probably going to be even smaller than that, since Google doesn't include demographic data for all respondents.

How to weight these is an interesting question.  They're technically adult polls, and Google's weighting will give you the adult figure.  If you want to weight to RV or LV, start with amdcpus' spreadsheets here:

Template: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10semu5xRZ-D6gG7J3d19asXVMnoCvh7G2RNuySOv_RI/edit?usp=sharing

(Obviously, copy it over to your own spreadsheet in Excel or Google Sheets, first.)

Get the 2012 RV/LV data for Tennessee from Census' website.  Or use my spreadsheet for almost all the info from all states here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11CzmVw3tIIDCDsIQ0QMlKDq45t6RqpKry8rJLwG_In4/edit?usp=sharing

If you want to do a RV weighting, you can get the data to put in amdcpus' amount and total columns (B&C) from Column E for your state of the "by age" tab on my spreadsheet.  You'll have to splt up the 45-64s into 45-54 and 55-64s.  Do that using the data from the Census bureau at the link at the top of my Splitting 45-64s tab in that spreadsheet.  Finally, you'll need to compute the male/female percentage to put in cells F2 and F10 of the template, respectively.  Do that by calculating the male/female percentage for TN in Column C of the By Sex/Race tab of my spreadsheet.  For RV, the percentage turnout by age column should be all 1.  

For a LV spreadsheet, you need to take the percent voted for each subgroup in Column K.  Assuming 65+ is the largest, the formula should be percentage of 18-24s voting/percentage of 65+s voting, in cells G3 and G10, percentage of 25-34s voting/percentage of 65+s voting in cells G4 and G11, etc. You also might want to replace the male/female percentages with the percentage that actually voted, instead of percentage registered.  You don't need to replace the data in columns B and C - the numbers in Column K will do that for you.

Finally, get the PERCENTAGE of age by sex for each candidate by clicking on the relevant boxes, and place that data in columns H, J, L, N, P, etc.  

When done, you can look at my SD spreadsheets to see if yours looks similar:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GqiTvFhwr2uhPdGUx7jKSYPgdRi6nwedHLgkS8PK0DU/edit?usp=sharing

amdcpus' template should then work to weight the data.  It's a bit strange to weight adult data to RV or LV standards - but so be it.

I'll PM amdcpus to make sure my explanation is correct.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we weight them, again?  Since it still has a ways to go to get to 333, I was thinking of providing pre-debate and post-debate numbers, along with an overall total.

The sample's probably too small to do that.  Even 333 is a somewhat small sample for a poll.  And, after weighting, the 333 is probably going to be even smaller than that, since Google doesn't include demographic data for all respondents.

How to weight these is an interesting question.  They're technically adult polls, and Google's weighting will give you the adult figure.  If you want to weight to RV or LV, start with amdcpus' spreadsheets here:

Template: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10semu5xRZ-D6gG7J3d19asXVMnoCvh7G2RNuySOv_RI/edit?usp=sharing

(Obviously, copy it over to your own spreadsheet in Excel or Google Sheets, first.)

Get the 2012 RV/LV data for Tennessee from Census' website.  Or use my spreadsheet for almost all the info from all states here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11CzmVw3tIIDCDsIQ0QMlKDq45t6RqpKry8rJLwG_In4/edit?usp=sharing

If you want to do a RV weighting, you can get the data to put in amdcpus' amount and total columns (B&C) from Column E for your state of the "by age" tab on my spreadsheet.  You'll have to splt up the 45-64s into 45-54 and 55-64s.  Do that using the data from the Census bureau at the link at the top of my Splitting 45-64s tab in that spreadsheet.  Finally, you'll need to compute the male/female percentage to put in cells F2 and F10 of the template, respectively.  Do that by calculating the male/female percentage for TN in Column C of the By Sex/Race tab of my spreadsheet.  For RV, the percentage turnout by age column should be all 1.  

For a LV spreadsheet, you need to take the percent voted for each subgroup in Column K.  Assuming 65+ is the largest, the formula should be percentage of 18-24s voting/percentage of 65+s voting, in cells G3 and G10, percentage of 25-34s voting/percentage of 65+s voting in cells G4 and G11, etc. You also might want to replace the male/female percentages with the percentage that actually voted, instead of percentage registered.  You don't need to replace the data in columns B and C - the numbers in Column K will do that for you.

Finally, get the PERCENTAGE of age by sex for each candidate by clicking on the relevant boxes, and place that data in columns H, J, L, N, P, etc.  

When done, you can look at my SD spreadsheets to see if yours looks similar:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GqiTvFhwr2uhPdGUx7jKSYPgdRi6nwedHLgkS8PK0DU/edit?usp=sharing

amdcpus' template should then work to weight the data.  It's a bit strange to weight adult data to RV or LV standards - but so be it.

I'll PM amdcpus to make sure my explanation is correct.

Yeah, I probably won't be able to break it down weighted.  My results so far have very little in the way of 65+ voters, so it would produce some really odd results.  Fortunately for this, Southern states usually break on racial lines, not age lines, so having a predominantly 18-34 sample shouldn't be too terrible.  I won't weight it by gender yet, either, but I will post both the male and female numbers, if that sounds good.

[cinyc]

Yeah, I probably won't be able to break it down weighted.  My results so far have very little in the way of 65+ voters, so it would produce some really odd results.  Fortunately for this, Southern states usually break on racial lines, not age lines, so having a predominantly 18-34 sample shouldn't be too terrible.  I won't weight it by gender yet, either, but I will post both the male and female numbers, if that sounds good.

That you have few 65+ voters is a bigger reason to weight it.  But Google will do it for you, if your universe is Adults, anyway.

I'm currently trying to simplify the weighting process by getting everything together in one spreadsheet.

[Speed of Sound]

It's extremely early (and unweighted), but so far the #s I'm getting from Utah are realistic. Afraid that Google's geo guesses for Utah aren't good, though, as my "non-vote" looks like it's gonna be high.

[Lachi]

132/333 responses in currently
28% undecided...

[cinyc]

I think I made weighting even easier, based off of amdcpus' spreadsheet.  Just see the amdcpus Template revised tab of this spreadsheet.  All the information you need is in the other tabs of that spreadsheet or your survey:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11CzmVw3tIIDCDsIQ0QMlKDq45t6RqpKry8rJLwG_In4/edit?usp=sharing

[Speed of Sound]

I think I made weighting even easier, based off of amdcpus' spreadsheet.  Just see the amdcpus Template revised tab of this spreadsheet.  All the information you need is in the other tabs of that spreadsheet or your survey:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11CzmVw3tIIDCDsIQ0QMlKDq45t6RqpKry8rJLwG_In4/edit?usp=sharing

Awesome, thanks cinyc! I can't wait to see how mine comes out when it's done.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Pre-Debate Unweighted Tennessee Numbers:
Trump 46
Clinton 26
Johnson 20
Others 8

Take it with a grain of salt due to the sample size of just under 100 people and the lack of weighting (I couldn't do that because 65+'s were 75% Clinton (3-1), so that would just make it look really weird with a sample based on four people!

[Alcon]

Pre-Debate Unweighted Tennessee Numbers:
Trump 46
Clinton 26
Johnson 20
Others 8

Take it with a grain of salt due to the sample size of just under 100 people and the lack of weighting (I couldn't do that because 65+'s were 75% Clinton (3-1), so that would just make it look really weird with a sample based on four people!

Afraid the MoE on the margin is over 20 percentage points, so that result is (barely) within MoE.  Even ignoring weighting (which is a big deal) you'll need a bigger sample.  But thanks for doing this!

And thank you, cinyc, for being such an awesome resource.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Pre-Debate Unweighted Tennessee Numbers:
Trump 46
Clinton 26
Johnson 20
Others 8

Take it with a grain of salt due to the sample size of just under 100 people and the lack of weighting (I couldn't do that because 65+'s were 75% Clinton (3-1), so that would just make it look really weird with a sample based on four people!

Afraid the MoE on the margin is over 20 percentage points, so that result is (barely) within MoE.  Even ignoring weighting (which is a big deal) you'll need a bigger sample.  But thanks for doing this!

And thank you, cinyc, for being such an awesome resource.

I will be getting a bigger sample, but I just thought that the work-in-progress number was interesting enough to post.  I plan to weight it at the end as well (especially if the, as of now, massive gender gap holds up).  Currently, men are Trump +31, while women are dead even.  But, the female sample is still pretty small, as nearly half of women have answered that they are not registered to vote in Tennessee.

[Speed of Sound]

Looks like they're taking a day off on running mine, so I'll drop the current results just for fun. Unweighted, and only containing 57 eligible votes (67 total) so far, here's my UT #'s:

Evan McMullin: 30
Hillary Clinton: 22
Donald Trump: 21
Gary Johnson: 7.5
Other: 4.5

[anthonyjg]

Unweighted Idaho numbers for the 114 eligible respondents so far.
Trump: 47
Clinton: 23
McMullin: 16
Johnson: 12
Stein: 2

[cinyc]

Looks like they're taking a day off on running mine, so I'll drop the current results just for fun.

GCS seems to run their polls in batches, so that you get responses at different times of the day.  The morning Internet audience isn't necessarily the same as the evening or work-time Internet audience.  So it's important not to get all the responses at 6AM, when early risers are answering the polls.

In my and amdcpus' experience, these polls should take 2-3 days to complete.

[Speed of Sound]

Looks like they're taking a day off on running mine, so I'll drop the current results just for fun.

GCS seems to run their polls in batches, so that you get responses at different times of the day.  The morning Internet audience isn't necessarily the same as the evening or work-time Internet audience.  So it's important not to get all the responses at 6AM, when early risers are answering the polls.

In my and amdcpus' experience, these polls should take 2-3 days to complete.

Yep, since posting that I noticed that my numbers are still trickling upward and your time estimate looks like it'll match mine. Thanks for all your help with this! You two will have single handedly helped create some Atlas-exclusive insight!

[Moderate Pennsylvanian]

I'll save the results until the end, but my Alaska poll, started yesterday morning, is now more than halfway completed.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump 58
Clinton 25
Johnson 9
Stein 4
De La Fuente 3
Smith 2

This definitely seems like an outlier, but it was similar without weighting for gender and age (54-26-12).  Johnson was doing far better in the first half of the poll, but fell off later (debate effect?).  I will be back soon with crosstabs!

[Speed of Sound]

It would actually match Romney's # in TN perfectly. Clinton will definitely sure up more than 25, though. Your result is actually probably closer than a lot of the overly close polls safe states often give. Thanks!

[cinyc]

Trump 58
Clinton 25
Johnson 9
Stein 4
De La Fuente 3
Smith 2

This definitely seems like an outlier, but it was similar without weighting for gender and age (54-26-12).  Johnson was doing far better in the first half of the poll, but fell off later (debate effect?).  I will be back soon with crosstabs!

What question did you ask?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Some Crosstabs (raw data, not reweighted for gender/age):

18-24: Trump +24 over Clinton
25-34: Trump +22 over Johnson (49-27-12 for Clinton)
35-44: Trump +38 over Clinton
45-54: Trump +24 over Clinton
55-64: Trump +18 over Clinton
65+: Trump +53 over Clinton

Age/Gender Unknown: Trump +13 over Clinton (not factored into topline due to not knowing data to control for)

Male: Trump +37 over Clinton (58-21-15)
Female: Trump +26 over Clinton

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump 58
Clinton 25
Johnson 9
Stein 4
De La Fuente 3
Smith 2

This definitely seems like an outlier, but it was similar without weighting for gender and age (54-26-12).  Johnson was doing far better in the first half of the poll, but fell off later (debate effect?).  I will be back soon with crosstabs!

What question did you ask?

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

[cinyc]

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

What were the choices?  Did you randomize them?