Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread
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Author Topic: Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread  (Read 20224 times)
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #50 on: October 20, 2016, 10:20:37 PM »

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

What were the choices?  Did you randomize them?

The names of six candidates on the ballot and their VPs (randomized), with an "I am not registered to vote in Tennessee" option always at the end.  I recalculated all numbers as if the last option didn't exist (e.g. .365/.711 for Trump for 18-24s).
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cinyc
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« Reply #51 on: October 20, 2016, 10:26:05 PM »

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

What were the choices?  Did you randomize them?

The names of six candidates on the ballot and their VPs (randomized), with an "I am not registered to vote in Tennessee" option always at the end.  I recalculated all numbers as if the last option didn't exist (e.g. .365/.711 for Trump for 18-24s).

Thanks.  I ended up with 22% not registered in South Dakota in the raw tally of my GCS SD survey.  What was yours?  (I'm wondering what percentage of non-registereds Google usually picks up and how much it varies by state).
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #52 on: October 20, 2016, 10:38:14 PM »

What candidate do you plan to vote for in Tennessee for President and Vice President of the United States

What were the choices?  Did you randomize them?

The names of six candidates on the ballot and their VPs (randomized), with an "I am not registered to vote in Tennessee" option always at the end.  I recalculated all numbers as if the last option didn't exist (e.g. .365/.711 for Trump for 18-24s).

Thanks.  I ended up with 22% not registered in South Dakota in the raw tally of my GCS SD survey.  What was yours?  (I'm wondering what percentage of non-registereds Google usually picks up and how much it varies by state).

26.6%
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #53 on: October 21, 2016, 07:51:48 AM »

Idaho poll just finished. Among 269 registered voters,
Trump: 50
Clinton: 27
McMullin: 12.5
Johnson: 7.5
Stein: 3
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cinyc
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« Reply #54 on: October 21, 2016, 12:03:48 PM »

Idaho poll just finished. Among 269 registered voters,
Trump: 50
Clinton: 27
McMullin: 12.5
Johnson: 7.5
Stein: 3

Thanks.

Same questions I asked ExtremeRepublican: What question did you ask, what were your choices, and if one option was "not registered in Idaho", what was the raw percentage that claimed that option?
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #55 on: October 21, 2016, 04:14:51 PM »

Idaho poll just finished. Among 269 registered voters,
Trump: 50
Clinton: 27
McMullin: 12.5
Johnson: 7.5
Stein: 3

Thanks.

Same questions I asked ExtremeRepublican: What question did you ask, what were your choices, and if one option was "not registered in Idaho", what was the raw percentage that claimed that option?
I asked the same question you did in your South Dakota poll, If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for? Choices were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Independent Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Jill Stein. 20.2% said that they weren't registered. Also, did anybody else have a sample that really skewed male? The age numbers actually didn't seem too bad, but men heavily outweighed women.
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cinyc
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« Reply #56 on: October 21, 2016, 04:15:56 PM »

Idaho poll just finished. Among 269 registered voters,
Trump: 50
Clinton: 27
McMullin: 12.5
Johnson: 7.5
Stein: 3

Thanks.

Same questions I asked ExtremeRepublican: What question did you ask, what were your choices, and if one option was "not registered in Idaho", what was the raw percentage that claimed that option?
I asked the same question you did in your South Dakota poll, If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for? Choices were Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Independent Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Jill Stein. 20.2% said that they weren't registered. Also, did anybody else have a sample that really skewed male? The age numbers actually didn't seem too bad, but men heavily outweighed women.

My sample was heavily male, too.   It seems to be an issue with GCS.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2016, 08:43:58 PM »

Trump up by 11 in my unweighted Georgia Poll

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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #58 on: October 21, 2016, 11:52:44 PM »

Trump up by 11 in my unweighted Georgia Poll



"Charlie Brown?"

Does that count as Evan McMullin?

http://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/306482/evan-mcmullin-utah-trump-clinton-tie/
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #59 on: October 22, 2016, 01:26:14 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 01:45:55 PM by Speed of Sound »

Alright, my poll just got finished for UT! I just got like 15 minutes into trying to weight this...and realized I have no idea what I'm doing. Anyone mind helping me along the way a bit? If there's no interest in weighting it out for me by the end of the day (and I would certainly blame nobody for that), I'll just drop the raw data with my eyeballed weighting opinion.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #60 on: October 22, 2016, 03:34:52 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2016, 03:46:31 PM by Speed of Sound »

At last, I can publish the results from the Utah poll I commissioned. Absolutely all of the work that mattered to make this poll relevant was done by cinyc, who properly weighted it, and amdcpus, who set up the original weighting templates. With that said, here we go:

Among 266 UT voters surveyed from Oct. 18-22:

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Weighted for LVs: Trump +3 (over McMullin)

Trump 31
McMullin 28
Clinton 23
Johnson 8
Other 10

Weighted for RVs: Tie (between Trump and McMullin)

Trump 28
McMullin 28
Clinton 26
Johnson 8
Other 10

Here's the link to the raw data

And here's cinyc's handy work in weighting it out!
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Moderate Pennsylvanian
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« Reply #61 on: October 22, 2016, 07:09:41 PM »

Alaska results:
10/19 to 10/22
435 total respondents
If the election for President of the United States were today, who would you vote for?
Randomized choices were Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein. No option for not registered.
I weighted for LV only:
Trump 42
Clinton 37
Johnson 15
Stein 6

Seems pretty reasonable except the third-party numbers are too high.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #62 on: October 22, 2016, 07:44:44 PM »

Alaska results:
10/19 to 10/22
435 total respondents
If the election for President of the United States were today, who would you vote for?
Randomized choices were Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein. No option for not registered.
I weighted for LV only:
Trump 42
Clinton 37
Johnson 15
Stein 6

Seems pretty reasonable except the third-party numbers are too high.

I don't think the third-party numbers are high for Alaska; the state has a long history of third parties doing much better than the national average.  Also, the current governor was elected as an Independent.  Here's a (partial?) list since 1968:

1968: George Wallace got 12.1% in Alaska, a little less than the 13.5% he got nationally but quite high for a non-Southern state (and Alaska is about as non-Southern as you can get!)
1972: John Schmitz of the American Party got 7.2; nationally he got 1.5.
1976: Roger Macbride (Libertarian) got 5.5, nationally 0.2
1980: John Anderson 7.0 (6.6 nationally); Ed Clark (LP) 11.7 (1.1)
1984: David Bergland (LP) 3.1 (0.2)
1988: Ron Paul (LP) 2.7 (0.5)
1992: Ross Perot (Reform) 28.4 (18.9)
1996: Perot 10.9 (8.4), Ralph Nader (Green) 3.1 (0.7)
2000: Nader 10.1 (2.7) Pat Buchanan (Reform) 1.8 (0.4)
2004: Nader 1.6 (0.4)
2008: Nader 1.2 (0.6)
2012: Gary Johnson (LP) 2.5 (1.0)
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Moderate Pennsylvanian
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« Reply #63 on: October 22, 2016, 07:54:06 PM »


I don't think the third-party numbers are high for Alaska; the state has a long history of third parties doing much better than the national average.  Also, the current governor was elected as an Independent.  Here's a (partial?) list since 1968:

1968: George Wallace got 12.1% in Alaska, a little less than the 13.5% he got nationally but quite high for a non-Southern state (and Alaska is about as non-Southern as you can get!)
1972: John Schmitz of the American Party got 7.2; nationally he got 1.5.
1976: Roger Macbride (Libertarian) got 5.5, nationally 0.2
1980: John Anderson 7.0 (6.6 nationally); Ed Clark (LP) 11.7 (1.1)
1984: David Bergland (LP) 3.1 (0.2)
1988: Ron Paul (LP) 2.7 (0.5)
1992: Ross Perot (Reform) 28.4 (18.9)
1996: Perot 10.9 (8.4), Ralph Nader (Green) 3.1 (0.7)
2000: Nader 10.1 (2.7) Pat Buchanan (Reform) 1.8 (0.4)
2004: Nader 1.6 (0.4)
2008: Nader 1.2 (0.6)
2012: Gary Johnson (LP) 2.5 (1.0)


Not impossible then, although I'd still be surprised personally. I'd say the Johnson 15 is more likely than the Stein 6.
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cinyc
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« Reply #64 on: October 22, 2016, 09:23:28 PM »


I don't think the third-party numbers are high for Alaska; the state has a long history of third parties doing much better than the national average.  Also, the current governor was elected as an Independent.  Here's a (partial?) list since 1968:

1968: George Wallace got 12.1% in Alaska, a little less than the 13.5% he got nationally but quite high for a non-Southern state (and Alaska is about as non-Southern as you can get!)
1972: John Schmitz of the American Party got 7.2; nationally he got 1.5.
1976: Roger Macbride (Libertarian) got 5.5, nationally 0.2
1980: John Anderson 7.0 (6.6 nationally); Ed Clark (LP) 11.7 (1.1)
1984: David Bergland (LP) 3.1 (0.2)
1988: Ron Paul (LP) 2.7 (0.5)
1992: Ross Perot (Reform) 28.4 (18.9)
1996: Perot 10.9 (8.4), Ralph Nader (Green) 3.1 (0.7)
2000: Nader 10.1 (2.7) Pat Buchanan (Reform) 1.8 (0.4)
2004: Nader 1.6 (0.4)
2008: Nader 1.2 (0.6)
2012: Gary Johnson (LP) 2.5 (1.0)


Not impossible then, although I'd still be surprised personally. I'd say the Johnson 15 is more likely than the Stein 6.

The third party numbers seem high in almost all the Atlas Google Consumer Surveys we've done, really.  It's an artifact of asking third parties by name, coupled with no real likely voting screen because we only get one question.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #65 on: October 22, 2016, 09:52:56 PM »

Is coming for Iowa and Ohio? Haven't gotten a good poll for these in awhile.
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LLR
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« Reply #66 on: October 23, 2016, 11:11:04 AM »

Sucks that we actually have to pay for these now Sad
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #67 on: October 23, 2016, 02:37:27 PM »

Trump leading by 3.9 in MT.
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Lachi
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« Reply #68 on: October 23, 2016, 04:10:00 PM »

My poll finished a few days ago, but the results will never load Sad
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cinyc
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« Reply #69 on: October 23, 2016, 04:21:54 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 04:24:23 PM by cinyc »

My poll finished a few days ago, but the results will never load Sad

The results should load.  Try logging into and out of your account, or using a different browser.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #70 on: October 23, 2016, 04:42:09 PM »


I don't think the third-party numbers are high for Alaska; the state has a long history of third parties doing much better than the national average.  Also, the current governor was elected as an Independent.  Here's a (partial?) list since 1968:

1968: George Wallace got 12.1% in Alaska, a little less than the 13.5% he got nationally but quite high for a non-Southern state (and Alaska is about as non-Southern as you can get!)
1972: John Schmitz of the American Party got 7.2; nationally he got 1.5.
1976: Roger Macbride (Libertarian) got 5.5, nationally 0.2
1980: John Anderson 7.0 (6.6 nationally); Ed Clark (LP) 11.7 (1.1)
1984: David Bergland (LP) 3.1 (0.2)
1988: Ron Paul (LP) 2.7 (0.5)
1992: Ross Perot (Reform) 28.4 (18.9)
1996: Perot 10.9 (8.4), Ralph Nader (Green) 3.1 (0.7)
2000: Nader 10.1 (2.7) Pat Buchanan (Reform) 1.8 (0.4)
2004: Nader 1.6 (0.4)
2008: Nader 1.2 (0.6)
2012: Gary Johnson (LP) 2.5 (1.0)


Not impossible then, although I'd still be surprised personally. I'd say the Johnson 15 is more likely than the Stein 6.

I wouldn't say that Stein capturing 4-5% is unreasonable in Alaska, where there has long been a relatively strong and active statewide Green Party, and additionally most Alaskans are resigned to the fact that by the time they finish voting the election has usually been called in the Lower 48 once the West Coast kicks in, and then compound that with Clinton's relative weakness in rural parts of the Western United States, and it is feasible, although not particularly likely to see Green leaning Dems deciding to "vote their conscience" if they consider Clinton to already be a shoo-in and that AKs (3) EVs won't be a potential swing vote in a tight race.
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Alcon
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« Reply #71 on: October 23, 2016, 05:36:28 PM »

I did a WA poll, and re-weighed found this, Clinton +10:

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

30-point gender gap
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RI
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« Reply #72 on: October 23, 2016, 05:42:21 PM »

I did a WA poll, and re-weighed found this, Clinton +10:

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

30-point gender gap

Pretty similar to other WA polls. Hillary hasn't crossed 50% in a single one, nor has Trump scored more than 40% in any poll AFAIK.
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Alcon
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« Reply #73 on: October 23, 2016, 06:09:06 PM »

I did a WA poll, and re-weighed found this, Clinton +10:

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

30-point gender gap

Pretty similar to other WA polls. Hillary hasn't crossed 50% in a single one, nor has Trump scored more than 40% in any poll AFAIK.

Yes, although I'm really skeptical about the prospect that WA is actually only +10.  Considering demographics and past results, it should be something closer to +16.
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cinyc
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« Reply #74 on: October 23, 2016, 06:09:45 PM »

I did a WA poll, and re-weighed found this, Clinton +10:

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

30-point gender gap

What exact question did you ask, what were the choices, and if you included a not registered/likely to vote/from WA option, what percentage of respondents chose that option?
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