Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread
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Author Topic: Atlas Google Consumer Survey polls megathread  (Read 20222 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #75 on: October 23, 2016, 06:15:07 PM »
« edited: October 23, 2016, 06:16:55 PM by Alcon »

I did a WA poll, and re-weighed found this, Clinton +10:

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

30-point gender gap

What exact question did you ask, what were the choices, and if you included a not registered/likely to vote/from WA option, what percentage of respondents chose that option?

Question: "Washington State Voters: If the Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"

'Opt-out' question was "I do not plan to vote in Washington State" -- unconventional wording but I wanted to give it a try.  70/333 people chose that, so overall unweighted sample size of n=263 (MoE +/-6%).

Choices were my best effort to reflect the Washington ballot:

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democrat)
Donald J Trump/Michael R Pence (Republican)
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
Jill Stein/Ajama Baraka (Green)

I excluded the two socialist options.
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cinyc
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« Reply #76 on: October 23, 2016, 06:19:58 PM »

I did a WA poll, and re-weighed found this, Clinton +10:

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

30-point gender gap

What exact question did you ask, what were the choices, and if you included a not registered/likely to vote/from WA option, what percentage of respondents chose that option?

Question: "Washington State Voters: If the Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"

'Opt-out' question was "I do not plan to vote in Washington State" -- unconventional wording but I wanted to give it a try.  70/333 people chose that, so overall unweighted sample size of n=263 (MoE +/-6%).

Choices were my best effort to reflect the Washington ballot:

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democrat)
Donald J Trump/Michael R Pence (Republican)
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
Jill Stein/Ajama Baraka (Green)

I excluded the two socialist options.

Thanks.  Unless you weighted the respondents without sex or age data, the weighted sample is probably smaller than just excluding the opt-outs, unfortunately.  Unfortunately, GCS can't impute demographic information for everyone.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #77 on: October 23, 2016, 06:29:34 PM »

Why did you not include Castle, btw?
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cinyc
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« Reply #78 on: October 23, 2016, 06:41:07 PM »


Castle's not the only minor candidate on the Washington ballot.  Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart (Socialist Workers) and Gloria Estela La Riva/Eugene Puryear (Socialism and Liberation) are also on it.

Adding the more minor candidates by name leads to poll clutter, which sometimes leads to more inaccurate results.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #79 on: October 23, 2016, 06:44:55 PM »

Clinton will win Washington by a lot more than 10 points.
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Alcon
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« Reply #80 on: October 23, 2016, 06:51:26 PM »

I did a WA poll, and re-weighed found this, Clinton +10:

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 5%

30-point gender gap

What exact question did you ask, what were the choices, and if you included a not registered/likely to vote/from WA option, what percentage of respondents chose that option?

Question: "Washington State Voters: If the Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"

'Opt-out' question was "I do not plan to vote in Washington State" -- unconventional wording but I wanted to give it a try.  70/333 people chose that, so overall unweighted sample size of n=263 (MoE +/-6%).

Choices were my best effort to reflect the Washington ballot:

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine (Democrat)
Donald J Trump/Michael R Pence (Republican)
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld (Libertarian)
Jill Stein/Ajama Baraka (Green)

I excluded the two socialist options.

Thanks.  Unless you weighted the respondents without sex or age data, the weighted sample is probably smaller than just excluding the opt-outs, unfortunately.  Unfortunately, GCS can't impute demographic information for everyone.

Any suggestions on that?  I considered re-weighing on the assumption that the unknown group had a comparable gender gap, and a comparable oversampling of males, which came to Clinton +12 or so.  I also tried just separating that group and adjusting only known-gender people.  Got Clinton +10 rounded.  Not terribly happy with either option.


Castle's not the only minor candidate on the Washington ballot.  Alyson Kennedy/Osborne Hart (Socialist Workers) and Gloria Estela La Riva/Eugene Puryear (Socialism and Liberation) are also on it.

Adding the more minor candidates by name leads to poll clutter, which sometimes leads to more inaccurate results.

^ This is why.  I don't want to give people an overt "None of the Above" stand-in.
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cinyc
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« Reply #81 on: October 23, 2016, 07:07:03 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 08:33:30 PM by cinyc »

Any suggestions on that?  I considered re-weighing on the assumption that the unknown group had a comparable gender gap, and a comparable oversampling of males, which came to Clinton +12 or so.  I also tried just separating that group and adjusting only known-gender people.  Got Clinton +10 rounded.  Not terribly happy with either option.

I've been ignoring those who we don't have demographic information for when weighting.  I haven't tried to readjust making assumptions, because whatever assumptions are made are probably wrong.  Usually, that subsample is only 10% voters or so, anyway, so they shouldn't move the margin much.  

In my SD poll, there were 63/500 without gender info, and a plurality chose the "not registered in SD" option (33.3% versus 22.1% overall).  There were 82 without age info, and an even higher percentage, 35.2% chose not registered.  So they're probably more likely to be out-of-staters, too.

Google's own weighting for Internet users ignores those without imputed age/sex data.

Out of curiosity, what were the raw (non-Google weighted) numbers for Washington?
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Alcon
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« Reply #82 on: October 23, 2016, 07:17:51 PM »

Any suggestions on that?  I considered re-weighing on the assumption that the unknown group had a comparable gender gap, and a comparable oversampling of males, which came to Clinton +12 or so.  I also tried just separating that group and adjusting only known-gender people.  Got Clinton +10 rounded.  Not terribly happy with either option.

I've been ignoring those who we don't have demographic information for when weighting.  I haven't tried to readjust making assumptions, because whatever assumptions are made are probably wrong.  Usually, that subsample is only 10% voters or so, anyway, so they shouldn't move the margin much.  

In my SD poll, there were 63/500 without demo info, and a plurality chose the "not registered in SD" option (33.3% versus 22.1% overall).  So they're probably more likely to be out-of-staters, too.

Google's own weighting for Internet users ignores those without imputed age/sex data.

Out of curiosity, what were the raw (non-Google weighted) numbers for Washington?

That's what I figured too, so I avoided that method.

Clinton +6
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cinyc
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« Reply #83 on: October 23, 2016, 09:37:35 PM »


Is this poll complete or still in the field?
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cinyc
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« Reply #84 on: October 23, 2016, 09:38:11 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2016, 05:05:40 PM by cinyc »

Atlas Google Consumer Surveys so far:
StateSponsorMarginWeighted toDates
UtahamdcpusTrump +6Likely VotersOct 12-13
South DakotacinycTrump +17Registered VotersOct 15-17
TennesseeExtremeRepublicanTrump+33Registered VotersOct 18-20
Idahoanthony1691Trump +23UnweightedOct 18-21
Georgiarafta_raftaTrump +11Unweighted?
UtahSpeed of SoundTrump +3Likely VotersOct 19-22
AlaskaModerate PennsylvanianTrump+5Likely VotersOct 19-22
WashingtonAlconClinton +10Likely VotersOct 21-23
MainecinycClinton +14Likely VotersOct 26-30

I think I captured them all.  Please help me fill in the question marks.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #85 on: October 23, 2016, 09:41:50 PM »

Atlas Google Consumer Surveys so far:
StateSponsorMarginWeighted toDates
[/b]
UtahamdcpusTrump +6Likely VotersOct 12-13
South DakotacinycTrump +17Registered VotersOct 15-17
TennseeeExtremeRepublicanTrump+33Weighted;Unclear how?
Idahoanthony1691Trump +23Google Internet Users??
Georgiarafta_raftaTrump +11Unweighted?
UtahSpeed of SoundTrump +3Likely Voters?
AlaskaModerate PennsylvanianTrump+5Likely Voters?
WashingtonAlconClinton +10Likely Voters?

I think I captured them all.  Please help me fill in the question marks.
Thanks! My Utah poll ran from October 19th-22nd.
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Alcon
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« Reply #86 on: October 23, 2016, 09:44:39 PM »

WA poll was 10/21-23
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #87 on: October 23, 2016, 10:00:23 PM »

Atlas Google Consumer Surveys so far:
StateSponsorMarginWeighted toDates
UtahamdcpusTrump +6Likely VotersOct 12-13
South DakotacinycTrump +17Registered VotersOct 15-17
TennseeeExtremeRepublicanTrump+33Weighted;Unclear how?
Idahoanthony1691Trump +23Google Internet Users??
Georgiarafta_raftaTrump +11Unweighted?
UtahSpeed of SoundTrump +3Likely VotersOct 19-22
AlaskaModerate PennsylvanianTrump+5Likely VotersOct 19-22
WashingtonAlconClinton +10Likely VotersOct 21-23

I think I captured them all.  Please help me fill in the question marks.
Ran 18-21. Unweighted
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anthonyjg
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« Reply #88 on: October 23, 2016, 10:02:06 PM »

Also, here's the link to the survey for anyone interested. https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=gdpj672ouix5gvzihxobgaf6jq
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #89 on: October 23, 2016, 10:15:32 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 10:17:39 PM by ExtremeRepublican »

Atlas Google Consumer Surveys so far:
StateSponsorMarginWeighted toDates
UtahamdcpusTrump +6Likely VotersOct 12-13
South DakotacinycTrump +17Registered VotersOct 15-17
TennesseeExtremeRepublicanTrump+33Weighted;Unclear how?
Idahoanthony1691Trump +23UnweightedOct 18-21
Georgiarafta_raftaTrump +11Unweighted?
UtahSpeed of SoundTrump +3Likely VotersOct 19-22
AlaskaModerate PennsylvanianTrump+5Likely VotersOct 19-22
WashingtonAlconClinton +10Likely VotersOct 21-23

I think I captured them all.  Please help me fill in the question marks.

October 18-20, RV (since that was the screen I employed with the last option)
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cinyc
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« Reply #90 on: October 23, 2016, 11:06:51 PM »


Thanks.  I get Trump+20, weighted for RVs (227 with demographic info):
Trump 48%
Clinton 28%
McMullin 14%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

I also get Trump+22 for LVs, but you didn't ask that question.
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PollsDontLie
nirvanayoda
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« Reply #91 on: October 23, 2016, 11:29:16 PM »

I was going to run one of Florida or Iowa, but it didn't give me the $50 off coupon.
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cinyc
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« Reply #92 on: October 23, 2016, 11:38:35 PM »

I was going to run one of Florida or Iowa, but it didn't give me the $50 off coupon.

Unfortunately, the coupon offer seems to be over.

I will probably do another poll this week or next.  Any suggestions?  I prefer doing polls for rarely-polled states.  I'm thinking maybe Nebraska.  If the sample size is large enough, we might be able to guestimate NE-02.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #93 on: October 23, 2016, 11:57:54 PM »

I was going to run one of Florida or Iowa, but it didn't give me the $50 off coupon.

Unfortunately, the coupon offer seems to be over.

I will probably do another poll this week or next.  Any suggestions?  I prefer doing polls for rarely-polled states.  I'm thinking maybe Nebraska.  If the sample size is large enough, we might be able to guestimate NE-02.

Oregon and Minnesota
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #94 on: October 24, 2016, 12:01:02 AM »

I was going to run one of Florida or Iowa, but it didn't give me the $50 off coupon.

Unfortunately, the coupon offer seems to be over.

I will probably do another poll this week or next.  Any suggestions?  I prefer doing polls for rarely-polled states.  I'm thinking maybe Nebraska.  If the sample size is large enough, we might be able to guestimate NE-02.

Yeah, I think Minnesota would be interesting.  We really don't have enough polling there.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #95 on: October 24, 2016, 12:09:10 AM »

What about Indiana?

I suspect the lack of undecideds may be making third party numbers higher and some results off(I. E. Clinton only winning by ten in Washington).
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Ebsy
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« Reply #96 on: October 24, 2016, 12:25:48 AM »

I was going to run one of Florida or Iowa, but it didn't give me the $50 off coupon.

Unfortunately, the coupon offer seems to be over.

I will probably do another poll this week or next.  Any suggestions?  I prefer doing polls for rarely-polled states.  I'm thinking maybe Nebraska.  If the sample size is large enough, we might be able to guestimate NE-02.

Yeah, I think Minnesota would be interesting.  We really don't have enough polling there.

Minnesota will not be even slightly interesting.
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cinyc
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« Reply #97 on: October 24, 2016, 12:48:37 AM »

I was going to run one of Florida or Iowa, but it didn't give me the $50 off coupon.

Unfortunately, the coupon offer seems to be over.

I will probably do another poll this week or next.  Any suggestions?  I prefer doing polls for rarely-polled states.  I'm thinking maybe Nebraska.  If the sample size is large enough, we might be able to guestimate NE-02.

Yeah, I think Minnesota would be interesting.  We really don't have enough polling there.

The problem with Minnesota and the larger states is that doing a Google Consumer Survey poll for them largely duplicates what GCS does themselves.  The sample sizes of their 50-state national subsample is large enough that me doing a 333/500 or even 667-respondent poll would be largely duplicative but for ensured geographic weighting.  Plus, chances are Survey USA and maybe even Mason Dixon will re-poll Minnesota for their media partners in the next two weeks.  

Oregon has had 8 polls partially or all in October so far.   Indiana would be interesting, but, according to 538, 7 polls have been conducted partially or all in October (despite the state's ban on robo-pollsters), including GCS's own survey with 717 respondents.

In contrast, Nebraska has only been polled by 2 pollsters in October (GCS and CVoter) and GCS's sample size was only in the 200s.  That's why I'd like to stick to a smallish 3-7 EV state where there's little chance of getting a good poll.  We've already done Alaska and Utah, so those are out.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #98 on: October 24, 2016, 03:39:05 AM »

^ The problem is also that these polls seem to be sh-t, but I'm glad you guys have the money to throw around. Tongue
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cinyc
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« Reply #99 on: October 24, 2016, 12:28:02 PM »

^ The problem is also that these polls seem to be sh-t, but I'm glad you guys have the money to throw around. Tongue

A good number of these polls were done for free after the now-defunct $50 off your first survey coupon offer. And I don't think the results we've gotten so far are that far off from reality.  They at least seem plausible.
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