NC - SurveyUSA: Clinton +2
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  NC - SurveyUSA: Clinton +2
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Author Topic: NC - SurveyUSA: Clinton +2  (Read 2423 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 18, 2016, 09:04:21 PM »

Clinton 46%
Trump 44%
Johnson 6%

Source
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 09:06:25 PM »

this makes me mad.....EVERY poll has a clinton lead ...and every one is inside the MOE.

well... i take it anyway.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 09:07:17 PM »

What were the last numbers?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 09:08:04 PM »


Literally no change except Johnson ticked up 1 point. No changes in the Senate numbers either.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2016, 09:11:22 PM »


Literally no change except Johnson ticked up 1 point. No changes in the Senate numbers either.

I'll take it Smiley
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voter1993
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2016, 09:13:37 PM »

Hmm only 55% of white vote? I see polls with more than that. Trump getting 17% of the democratic vote as well? Romney got 68% of the white vote in exit polls and won independents by 15 to compare.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2016, 09:15:21 PM »

Hmm only 55% of white vote? I see polls with more than that. Trump getting 17% of the democratic vote as well? Romney got 68% of the white vote in exit polls and won independents by 15 to compare.

Hmmm I wonder what that tells you?
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2016, 09:33:43 PM »

Voters- and especially young voters- think HB2 is a good idea.  And, they believe that "transgender" people should not be able to choose their bathroom.  Finally some sanity!!
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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2016, 09:40:23 PM »

Voters- and especially young voters- think HB2 is a good idea.  And, they believe that "transgender" people should not be able to choose their bathroom.  Finally some sanity!!

Sure.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2016, 09:41:44 PM »

Voters- and especially young voters- think HB2 is a good idea.  And, they believe that "transgender" people should not be able to choose their bathroom.  Finally some sanity!!

You're a fool.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2016, 09:42:19 PM »

Voters- and especially young voters- think HB2 is a good idea.  And, they believe that "transgender" people should not be able to choose their bathroom.  Finally some sanity!!

Sure.

Exactly, every other poll has shown the exact opposite.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2016, 09:43:12 PM »

Voters- and especially young voters- think HB2 is a good idea.

that makes no sense at all...why should more voters over 50 and especially over the age of 60 think HB2 is bad than millenials?

i don't doubt the general margins but this age question is weird.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2016, 09:44:03 PM »

SUSA is a good pollster but their crosstabs are always wacky beyond compare.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2016, 09:51:08 PM »

Voters- and especially young voters- think HB2 is a good idea.

that makes no sense at all...why should more voters over 50 and especially over the age of 60 think HB2 is bad than millenials?

i don't doubt the general margins but this age question is weird.

HB2 support by age:

18-34: Good Idea +7
35-49: Good Idea +5
50-64: Bad Idea +1
65+: Bad Idea +3
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Horus
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2016, 09:56:55 PM »

Voters- and especially young voters- think HB2 is a good idea.

that makes no sense at all...why should more voters over 50 and especially over the age of 60 think HB2 is bad than millenials?

i don't doubt the general margins but this age question is weird.

HB2 support by age:

18-34: Good Idea +7
35-49: Good Idea +5
50-64: Bad Idea +1
65+: Bad Idea +3

This is literally the ONLY poll to ever show that, and SurveyUSA is notorious for their terrible crosstabs and reasonable results.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2016, 09:57:19 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Survey USA on 2016-10-16

Summary: D: 46%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2016, 09:57:38 PM »

yeah, i can read...just doesn't make any sense. ^^
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heatcharger
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2016, 09:58:55 PM »

PPP poll back in August:

HB2 Support/Oppose by age:

18-29: 26/39
30-45: 31/41
46-65: 34/46
Older than 65: 25/44
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TC 25
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2016, 10:17:08 PM »

This will be back in the Trump column by next week.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 10:17:49 PM »

This will be back in the Trump column by next week.

Sure thing. If NC votes 9-10 points to the right of the nation.
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iBizzBee
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 10:20:51 PM »

This will be back in the Trump column by next week.

Quoted for repost in one week.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 10:26:20 PM »

Sampling is a joke.

SurveyUSA Party ID - DEM 42 - REP 31 - IND 23. D +11%? ?
even in 2012 NC Exit Poll. it was DEM 39 - REP 33 - IND 28. D+6%.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/

Voter registeation Party ID % (2012->2016)
2012: DEM-REP gaps = 803K Voters.
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-20-2012

2016 Oct,15th: DEM-REP gaps = 644K Voters.
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-15-2016

2012->2016 Party ID % gaps(DEM-REP) :  

Actually It could be adjusted as TRUMP +4~5%.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2016, 10:35:54 PM »

I'll take it.
But I wish it was stronger for Hillary.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2016, 10:44:08 PM »

Sampling is a joke.

SurveyUSA Party ID - DEM 42 - REP 31 - IND 23. D +11%? ?
even in 2012 NC Exit Poll. it was DEM 39 - REP 33 - IND 28. D+6%.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/

Voter registeation Party ID % (2012->2016)
2012: DEM-REP gaps = 803K Voters.
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-20-2012

2016 Oct,15th: DEM-REP gaps = 644K Voters.
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-15-2016

2012->2016 Party ID % gaps(DEM-REP) :  

Actually It could be adjusted as TRUMP +4~5%.

Not sure why I'm bothering to respond to StatesPoll's unskewing, but Trump is getting 17% of the Democratic vote in their sample.  So clearly SUSA just happened to get a lot of conservative Democrats in their sample.  And indeed if you look at the ideology breakdown, their sample is 47% conservative, much higher than recent NC exit polls.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2016, 10:51:44 PM »

Ross 4 points behind Hillary. If she manages to finish strong, then Ross has a chance.


this makes me mad.....EVERY poll has a clinton lead ...and every one is inside the MOE.

The MOE shrinks considerably when you average several polls together.
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