Does a candidate that's behind 7-9 points on average have a chance? Now?

[Dr. Arch]

It seems Trump has buried himself at this point, constantly polling under 40 less than 3 weeks away from Election Day. What are your thoughts?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very little chance, barring a whole series of game changers.  No single event could move the race more than 2 or 3 points (if that) at this late stage.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

No. He's done. Even if he wins the debate, the vast majority of likely voters have decided. It also seems like most who watch the debates are partisans.

[Maxwell]

the first debate seemed to clinch it... for Clinton.

[Nyvin]

He would need an entire series of major setbacks for Clinton and a good number of really positive movements for him as well.   

A good debate performance will not be enough.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless Clinton is caught on tape to torture cute little animals, no.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Something really bad would have to come out on clinton...Maybe caught on tape talking about how she'll work for wall street as their president.

Trump of course could do himself a world of good by acting presidential and debating the issues tonight.

[ProudModerate2]

He would need an entire series of major setbacks for Clinton and a good number of really positive movements for him as well.   
A good debate performance will not be enough.

[yawa]

The question is rhetorical, no chance at all, and the last debate will not affect the election campaign no matter whow Trump performs. We may congratulate Clinton, and the only way out for Trump  is to emigrate to Slovenia.

[Illiniwek]

Yes...but after tonight I think we are looking at trump being down 15 with 2 minutes to go in the game at his own 20 yard line. It is possible to go 80 yards, recover an onside kick, do it again, and get a 2pt conversion or two, and tie or win, but it really isn't likely. Bottom line, one Hail Mary completion won't be enough, he needs to get a little more lucky.

[Hammy]

I would normally say no to this sort of question, but the fact that Clinton still isn't cracking 50% on more than a few polls (putting the race still well within the margin of error as well) still makes victory far less than certain.

[Ebsy]

Nope. It's over.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Putin/Wiki had an ace in their hole, it would have been played by now.  Unless they are really stupid enough to wait this long.

If some horrific criminal charge was still possible against Clinton, it already would have been filed.

I mean, maybe I'm mistaken.  Maybe Wiki has something like Clinton knowingly withholding security from Benghazi, against the recommendations of her advisers, because she was covering up illegal dealings with the forerunners of ISIS.  And it's flimsy and ultimately won't hold up to several weeks' scrutiny, but if they leak it on Halloween it would torpedo her chances before anyone could debunk it.

But apart from something like that, there's really no chance of a comeback.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think it's ever happened for polls so late in the race to be wrong by that much. That doesn't mean it never will, but it's at least unlikely.

[HillOfANight]

Anything can happen. What if she has a crazy coughing fit she always had for Bernie or collapses or something.

[Nyvin]

I would normally say no to this sort of question, but the fact that Clinton still isn't cracking 50% on more than a few polls (putting the race still well within the margin of error as well) still makes victory far less than certain.

Obama hardly ever cracked 50% in the polls either in 2012...and Hillary is leading Obama's polling quite significantly right now.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Anything can happen. What if she has a crazy coughing fit she always had for Bernie or collapses or something.

No.  It would take a bombshell.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

He would need an entire series of major setbacks for Clinton and a good number of really positive movements for him as well.   

A good debate performance will not be enough.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Putin/Wiki had an ace in their hole, it would have been played by now.  Unless they are really stupid enough to wait this long.

If some horrific criminal charge was still possible against Clinton, it already would have been filed.

I mean, maybe I'm mistaken.  Maybe Wiki has something like Clinton knowingly withholding security from Benghazi, against the recommendations of her advisers, because she was covering up illegal dealings with the forerunners of ISIS.  And it's flimsy and ultimately won't hold up to several weeks' scrutiny, but if they leak it on Halloween it would torpedo her chances before anyone could debunk it.

If Team Trump has something lurking (besides their candidate and his tiny roving hands), I think you've hit the nail on the head here. If they had such evidence for real, it would be out. But a debunked fake would help her, so it needs to be lobbed at precisely the right time.

I'm guessing the cyber warning shots from our goverment are hoping to prevent this scenario.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves before the debate has even happened.

[Lolasknives]

No, he's done, but she needs to keep kicking him in the balls all the way to election day. Nothing less than a historic loss and persecution for him and his family after the election are too good for Drumpf. I want them all reduced to the poor white trash they are and in prison.

[Wisconsin+17]

Reagan was down by 6 based on polling on the 25th of October and recovered to win, and was ahead in polling going down into election day.

Truman was down 5 going into election day and won.

Is it possible that Trump wins? Sure. Trump still has a chance. He would only have to improve by about 0.2 or so to match Reagan, over the next week. That's doable. Once he's within at least 6.4, etc, he'll be ok. He's running about a point and a bit behind Truman.

If Trump's down 8 by next week, he's done. 

[Xing]

I mean, technically yes, just like there's a "chance" that Chuck Schumer will lose re-election. We can be pretty confident that Trump isn't going to win.

[rafta_rafta]

If the polls are correct, then this race is over. The only chance Trump has is that the polls weren't able to spot a Bradley effect or some massive hidden turnout for Trump. There is no sign that either of these two are happening FWIW

[rafta_rafta]

Reagan was down by 6 based on polling on the 25th of October and recovered to win, and was ahead in polling going down into election day.

That's nonsense. These the polls in the 1980 elections



Truman is a poor example because polling was rudimentary back then. In fact it was Truman's victory that forced polling organizations to improve their methodology and move to random sampling