Quinnipiac - National: Clinton +7 (4-way), +6 (2-way)
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  Quinnipiac - National: Clinton +7 (4-way), +6 (2-way)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac - National: Clinton +7 (4-way), +6 (2-way)  (Read 1642 times)
Speed of Sound
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« on: October 19, 2016, 01:30:47 PM »
« edited: October 19, 2016, 01:35:30 PM by Speed of Sound »

Having polled 1007 LV nationally over Oct 17-18:

4-way:

Clinton 47 (+2 since Oct 7)
Trump 40 (nc)
Johnson 7
Stein 1

2-way:

Clinton 50
Trump 44

Release:

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2390
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2016, 01:32:11 PM »

Sounds about right.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2016, 01:32:25 PM »

Men: Trump +2
Women: HRC +15
Indies: Trump +4
White women: HRC +3
Nonwhite: HRC +38
White: Trump +4
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 01:32:41 PM »

BUUH MUHH IDB POLL.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2016, 01:33:18 PM »

Quinnipiac lowballing Clinton's support among nonwhites but otherwise looks fine.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2016, 01:35:39 PM »

Quinnipiac lowballing Clinton's support among nonwhites but otherwise looks fine.

They have done that all year.

2 point gain for Clinton from 10/5-6, Trump remains at 40%
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2016, 01:36:11 PM »

55% believe she has a sense of decency, only 36% say the same of him.

51% believe in the allegations against Trump, only 31% say no.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2016, 01:36:28 PM »

+5 to +7 is probably where the margin is at.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2016, 01:36:29 PM »

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2390

Dems
Clinton 91%
Trump 4%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 80%
Clinton 7%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%

Indies
Trump 42%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 11%
Stein 2%

Johnson’s almost tied with Trump for 2nd among voters under 35:
Clinton 57%
Trump 20%
Johnson 19%
Stein 2%
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2016, 01:36:52 PM »

If Trump is only +4 with whites, this is more than a 7 point race. Q has leaned R all cycle.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 01:39:32 PM »

If Trump is only +4 with whites, this is more than a 7 point race. Q has leaned R all cycle.

Yeah, Mittens won whites by 20 points and still lost by 4.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 01:40:04 PM »

Quinnipiac lowballing Clinton's support among nonwhites but otherwise looks fine.

Yeah crosstabs are a bit funky.  Clinton is doing amazing with white voters (only down 4, which is probably generous to Clinton), but only up 63-25 with non-white voters, which is definitely too generous to Trump.  

In any case, it pretty much evens out, but if Clinton can narrow the gap with white voters that much, she'll destroy Trump.
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 01:40:47 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 01:43:11 PM by dspNY »

If Trump is only +4 with whites, this is more than a 7 point race. Q has leaned R all cycle.

Clinton is going to win by double digits in that scenario. Romney won white voters by 20 points and lost by 3.9%

Demographics:

White 72%
African-American 12%
Hispanic 8%
Other 9%

Party ID: 34D/28R/32I
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 01:43:12 PM »

Per Geoffrey Skelton, the recent average in live interview polls is a clean 7 point lead with Trump sub-40:

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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 01:46:09 PM »

Interesting question, and another reason why Trump has no chance:

Do you think Clinton has a sense of decency?  Yes 55, No 42
Do you think Trump has a sense of decency?  Yes 36, No 59
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 01:53:38 PM »

59% of Rs say Donald's admission of sexual assault is "not a big deal" and only 5% find it a deal breaker. 44% of white men say it's "not a big deal" and only 20% call it a deal breaker. #intothebasket
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 02:09:59 PM »

55% believe she has a sense of decency, only 36% say the same of him.

51% believe in the allegations against Trump, only 31% say no.
Oh my. Most undecideds will be Yes/yes, it seems.
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MSG
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2016, 02:28:36 PM »

Men: Trump +2
Women: HRC +15
Indies: Trump +4
White women: HRC +3
Nonwhite: HRC +38
White: Trump +4

Would somebody be so kind as to explain why a poll that has Clinton up 15 with woman and trump up 2 with men only has Clinton up 6-7 if woman make up a larger share of the electorate shouldn't it be arnd 13 point lead. I noticed this pattern a lot recently and was curious why the top line doesn't seem to line up with then sub sets. Thanks in advance
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2016, 02:29:37 PM »

Men: Trump +2
Women: HRC +15
Indies: Trump +4
White women: HRC +3
Nonwhite: HRC +38
White: Trump +4

Would somebody be so kind as to explain why a poll that has Clinton up 15 with woman and trump up 2 with men only has Clinton up 6-7 if woman make up a larger share of the electorate shouldn't it be arnd 13 point lead. I noticed this pattern a lot recently and was curious why the top line doesn't seem to line up with then sub sets. Thanks in advance
You'd need to average the 2, since the electorate is only half men/women. Therefore men net Trump 1 point and women net Clinton 7-8.
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MSG
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2016, 02:33:50 PM »

Thanks pal that makes sense. But you can see why stats was one of my worst classes in college haha
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Person Man
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2016, 02:39:34 PM »

Interesting question, and another reason why Trump has no chance:

Do you think Clinton has a sense of decency?  Yes 55, No 42
Do you think Trump has a sense of decency?  Yes 36, No 59

So most Americans don't think that Trump can tell right from wrong?
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2016, 03:07:58 PM »

Interesting question, and another reason why Trump has no chance:

Do you think Clinton has a sense of decency?  Yes 55, No 42
Do you think Trump has a sense of decency?  Yes 36, No 59

So most Americans don't think that Trump can tell right from wrong?

But muh pro-life Supreme Court.
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