Poll: Will the Trump states in the lower 48 be contiguous?

[Crumpets]

In 2004, 2008, and 2012, all of the Republican-voting states in the lower 48 were contiguous - no (non-Atlas) islands of red in a sea of blue. The last time a state voted Republican while all of its neighbors voted Democratic was New Hampshire in 2000.

The most likely scenarios that could lead to a non-contiguous Republican vote are:

1. New Hampshire votes Republican
2. Georgia and North Carolina vote Democratic, but South Carolina votes Republican
3. Arizona votes for Trump while someone else wins Utah
4. Wisconsin votes for Trump while Iowa votes for Clinton.

So far as I can tell, these all seem less likely than 50/50, but scenario 3 seems the most likely.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How would ME-02 be handled for this purpose?

[TarHeelDem]

It's probably going to be AZ - Clinton, UT - McMullin, so I say the likeliest non-contiguous Trump state is definitely South Carolina. The n-word tape might even prevent that though.

[Crumpets]

How would ME-02 be handled for this purpose?

I wasn't taking congressional districts into account.

[Vosem]

This is effectively a poll on "do you think Georgia and South Carolina vote for the same candidate, or not?"

Since it seems decently clear that Clinton is the favorite in AZ and McMullin in UT; weirdly, Arizona might be the second-most likely non-contiguous Trump state, after South Carolina.

[Badger]

This is effectively a poll on "do you think Georgia and South Carolina vote for the same candidate, or not?"

Since it seems decently clear that Clinton is the favorite in AZ and McMullin in UT; weirdly, Arizona might be the second-most likely non-contiguous Trump state, after South Carolina.

yep. this.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Trump holds on in Georgia.  Arizona and Utah is really the only possibility for it, but we'll have to see.  I'm far more concerned about AZ than any other McCain state or Indiana.