Predict a House upset nobody else seems to be predicting

[136or142]

Mine:  With all the discussion of the election in Utah and McMullin looking right now like he's going to win the state, I predict in Utah 2 Charlene Albarran will defeat incumbent Republican Chris Stewart.

Chris Stewart: http://stewart.house.gov/
Charlene Albarran: https://www.charlenealbarran.com/about-charlene/

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jason Plumb defeats Tom Reed.

[progressive85]

Gretchen Driskell defeats Tim Walberg in MI-7.

[windjammer]

The democrat wins Scott Rigell's district

[Bismarck]

Shelly Yoder wins Indiana -09.

[KingSweden]

Shelly Yoder wins Indiana -09.

I like this one. Seconded.

[Fitzgerald]

Shelly Yoder wins Indiana -09.

I like this one. Seconded.

Mark me for third. Gregg and Bayh might have some unexpected coattails.

[publicunofficial]

Seats currently rated Safe R by most experts:

VA-02 (Open)
MI-06 (Upton)
CA-39 (Royce)
MO-02 (Wagner)
NM-02 (Pearce)
WA-08 (Reichert)

Not saying Dems will win these, but I think they'll be closer than people expect.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd think IN-02 (R+6) is more likely to flip than IN-09 (R+9)--especially if Buttigieg were to run--but Hollingsworth is an honest-to-God carpetbagger...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If the polls showing a Justice Landslide are correct, keep an eye on WV-2.

[Shadows]

This is not an upset but NY-19 is traditionally a Republican seat unless Dems take control of the House in a big manner. This is not a Dem upsurge year down the ballot & NY19 should go comfortably GOP.

But Zephyr is running close, neck n neck. She has more negative attacks ad than possibly any other House candidate. It is crazy. I know this is not a major upset, but I would like Zephyr to really pull this one off. And if she wins, there is a good chance she will have the seat for the next 10 years!

[Devils30]

Obama won NY-19 last time 52-46, I don't think either side would regard that as an upset.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gretchen Driskell defeats Tim Walberg in MI-7.

Beat you to the punch there

[Kingpoleon]

IL-10: Dold narrowly triumphs over Schneider, ending Schneider's political career in the House once and for all!

[Heisenberg]

If the polls showing a Justice Landslide are correct, keep an eye on WV-2.

I agree with you Wulfric. Mooney is very unpopular, and an internal for the Democrat had Mooney up by only 3. I do remember the DCCC had backed a more Blue Dog-style candidate in the primary, who lost in an upset. If Mooney wins (he probably will), it will be by less than 7.

[Young Conservative]

Shelly Yoder wins Indiana -09.

I like this one. Seconded.

Mark me for third. Gregg and Bayh might have some unexpected coattails.

I Fourth, but she will win because of her own merit and the Republicans' flaws, not supposed coattails.

[swf541]

If the polls showing a Justice Landslide are correct, keep an eye on WV-2.

I agree with you Wulfric. Mooney is very unpopular, and an internal for the Democrat had Mooney up by only 3. I do remember the DCCC had backed a more Blue Dog-style candidate in the primary, who lost in an upset. If Mooney wins (he probably will), it will be by less than 7.

Decent chance Mooney loses.  Speaking from personal experience and connections the guy is legitimately extremely incompetent or at least was when at the helm of the Maryland GOP.

[Heisenberg]

If the polls showing a Justice Landslide are correct, keep an eye on WV-2.

I agree with you Wulfric. Mooney is very unpopular, and an internal for the Democrat had Mooney up by only 3. I do remember the DCCC had backed a more Blue Dog-style candidate in the primary, who lost in an upset. If Mooney wins (he probably will), it will be by less than 7.

Decent chance Mooney loses.  Speaking from personal experience and connections the guy is legitimately extremely incompetent or at least was when at the helm of the Maryland GOP.

And he is a carpetbagger who does not know too much about the state. He is also pretty incompetent and nearly lost his race in the 2014 Republican tsunami.

[swf541]

If the polls showing a Justice Landslide are correct, keep an eye on WV-2.

I agree with you Wulfric. Mooney is very unpopular, and an internal for the Democrat had Mooney up by only 3. I do remember the DCCC had backed a more Blue Dog-style candidate in the primary, who lost in an upset. If Mooney wins (he probably will), it will be by less than 7.

Decent chance Mooney loses.  Speaking from personal experience and connections the guy is legitimately extremely incompetent or at least was when at the helm of the Maryland GOP.

And he is a carpetbagger who does not know too much about the state. He is also pretty incompetent and nearly lost his race in the 2014 Republican tsunami.

Yep I live in washington county maryland so I remember his inept maryland campaign stuff in local news.  If i remember right he was the state senator in Fredrick county and managed to lose in 2010

[VPH]

Fran Person wins in SC.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Greene narrowly beats Cheney in Wyoming.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen only scrapes in.

[socaldem]

There have been a number of studies recently suggesting that there is less and less ticket-splitting so I think GOPers in heavy Clinton districts are in trouble:

1. NJ-01 Dave Cole beats LoBiondo

2. CA-39 Brett Murdock beats Ed Royce

I would put IRL in here too except I think that Rubio will pull it out and his strength in South Florida will be a boon somewhat for down ticket GOPers--but not enough to save Curbelo.

I think SC-05 Fran Person is a good pick for this thread.

I would say that IN-02 and, especially IN-09's Shelly Yoder don't count as complete upsets because folks are paying attention to those. WV-02 has been getting modest attention so I guess it fits...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I will go the other way:

Bacon wins in NE-02

[Lothal1]

Amie Hoeber maybe? Its a D+4 District that nearly went GOP in 2014 by 2000 votes. Larry Hogan's victory definitely made it more acceptable to vote GOP in Maryland. Article by the Washington Post on it.