Daily Tracking Poll/ Regular Opinion poll schism?
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  Daily Tracking Poll/ Regular Opinion poll schism?
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Author Topic: Daily Tracking Poll/ Regular Opinion poll schism?  (Read 671 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: October 20, 2016, 09:12:31 AM »

My question is, why is there such a schism opening up between the daily tracking polls and regular opinion polls?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2016, 09:25:56 AM »

1 (LA Times) has been debunked as junk
1 (Rasmussen) has historically been junk
1 (Times-Picayune/Lucid) looks relatively decent in matching regular polls
1 (IBD/TIPP) no idea what their trends are going to look like yet, they were good as a regular poll in 2012, but doing a daily tracking poll changes things, don't know why they got into the game so late
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2016, 09:26:52 AM »

The thing about Rasmussen is, their founder left in 2013...
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2016, 09:41:19 AM »

The thing about Rasmussen is, their founder left in 2013...
Yet they still use the same methodology as before.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 10:10:37 AM »

rassy seems to be the most political biased mainstream pollster of the USA.

la times is strange idd.

idb/ipp seems worrisome..... cause, if 3 trackers see a wholy different picture than the rest, one could wonder...why?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2016, 10:20:45 AM »

rassy seems to be the most political biased mainstream pollster of the USA.

la times is strange idd.

idb/ipp seems worrisome..... cause, if 3 trackers see a wholy different picture than the rest, one could wonder...why?

Rasmussen uses robo-call so it leans Republican.
LA Times uses a sample based on whom people voted for in 2012 to draw an electorate share. People have winner's bias so it's likely not accurate.

IDB/TIPP is interesting to me because even though they usually have a slight Republican bias they have been reasonable. They were great in 2004 and 2008 but were off by 2.3 in favor of Romney in 2012 so there is some chance they're continuing to slide away further from being an accurate poll.

But they could turn out to be a genius and shock us all.
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afleitch
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2016, 10:30:41 AM »

LA Times is horribly weighted.

See below for how it can be 'fixed'

https://sites.google.com/site/latuscrw/
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