Foreign Trump Effect? Duterte officially breaks up with US, allies with China

[ApatheticAustrian]

Duterte renounces U.S., declares Philippines will embrace China
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/philippines-duterte-saysgoodbye-washington-and-helloto-beijing/2016/10/20/865f3cd0-9571-11e6-9cae-2a3574e296a6_story.html


Could be a coincidence but i guess the vibes of a weakened foreign position for the US, personified through Trump, could eventually drive many allies - seeking protection -  into the hands of Russia and China.

[KingSweden]

Though in this case it's really just that Duterte is a thug who bristles when the US condemns his human rights abuses

[ApatheticAustrian]

Though in this case it's really just that Duterte is a thug who bristles when the US condemns his human rights abuses

sure, sure but the US usually don't threaten those wanna-be-dictators to give away some islands and some months ago, duterte even suggested he would attack china with bombs.

[Santander]

I have no problem with losing the Philippines, but this is going to make China even more uppity. We need strong leadership to put them back in their place.

[MasterJedi]

He'll be smiling until China sends in the fleet and effectively takes whatever it wants.

[KingSweden]

He'll be smiling until China sends in the fleet and effectively takes whatever it wants.

Bingo. Duterte is a moron and China is run by ruthlessly smart men. This ain't gonna end well

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

My dad's going over to the Philippines this weekend to visit his new wife's family who live over there. I'm starting to get worried for him.

[JA]

What other American allies must we worry would depart for Russia or China? South Korea? Japan? Taiwan? Any country in Eastern Europe? I highly doubt that. The only reason the Philippines has shifted towards China is because their little demagogic dictator doesn't like being condemned for the Hitler fanboy that he is.

Although I'd really like us to enforce the upholding of democracy and human rights on all of our allies, the fact remains that Philippines did relatively acceptable in this area and is now speeding into dictatorship, so of course they'll be exceptionally criticized. If Duterte or any other tyrant doesn't like that, then let them go be with China and Russia. We'll always welcome them back if they're willing to change their ways.

[Gass3268]

I wonder how this will effect this:

U.S. announces ramped-up military presence in Philippines

[MasterJedi]

Personally the Philippines should have been kept and developed and brought to statehood. Bad move letting them go.

[hurricanehink]

How does Trump expect to work with China when so far, as he has done is bluster? Duterte is capable of doing that on his own.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Personally the Philippines should have been kept and developed and brought to statehood. Bad move letting them go.

"We stole [them] fair and square." - S.I. Hayakawa

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Fine then, let them fall to China of their own accord.

[Lief 🗽]

CIA please assassinate.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What other American allies must we worry would depart for Russia or China? South Korea? Japan? Taiwan? Any country in Eastern Europe? I highly doubt that. The only reason the Philippines has shifted towards China is because their little demagogic dictator doesn't like being condemned for the Hitler fanboy that he is.

Although I'd really like us to enforce the upholding of democracy and human rights on all of our allies, the fact remains that Philippines did relatively acceptable in this area and is now speeding into dictatorship, so of course they'll be exceptionally criticized. If Duterte or any other tyrant doesn't like that, then let them go be with China and Russia. We'll always welcome them back if they're willing to change their ways.

The worries are more in smaller, undeveloped like Pacific Islands, Nepal and Sub-Sahrahan Africa. PI nations normally have been kept friendly by subsidy, military protection and a sort of trilateral agreement with Australia and New Zealand. However, China offers a lot more subsidy and since the Fiji coup and the Solomon intervention (as well as the Abbott how's pigheadedness) relationships between Australia and NZ and the Pacific States have been fraught. Chinese capital at the moment is being spread almost everywhere, even in developed countries like the aforementioned Australia and New Zealand (nor to mention the diplomatic failure that was American lobbying against joining the Asian infrastructure Bank, with almost every ally (sans Japan) defecting to get some sweet deals, with Britain first breaking the floodgates and then Italy, israel, Canada, Australia, Korea, Germany, France etc. all hurrying in). Obviously it is very unlikely that these countries will defect or anything, but the American state Dept is very worried these countries will persue 'independent' policies rather than joining Washington's Beijing scepticism. Especially, if, say, the LDP or DPP fall in Japan and Taiwan respectively, which would lead to relatively pro-Beijing positions by those two nations.

[Ebsy]

Hasn't he said similar things in the past just to walk them back at the behest of the military?

[GMantis]

He'll be smiling until China sends in the fleet and effectively takes whatever it wants.

The Chinese leadership didn't get where it is today by being so stupid, so I'm sure they would be able to give him a good deal so that other countries could see the benefits of allying with the US.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Duterte looks like the guy who constantly bothers me for change outside of the gas station here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What other American allies must we worry would depart for Russia or China? South Korea? Japan? Taiwan? Any country in Eastern Europe? I highly doubt that. The only reason the Philippines has shifted towards China is because their little demagogic dictator doesn't like being condemned for the Hitler fanboy that he is.

Although I'd really like us to enforce the upholding of democracy and human rights on all of our allies, the fact remains that Philippines did relatively acceptable in this area and is now speeding into dictatorship, so of course they'll be exceptionally criticized. If Duterte or any other tyrant doesn't like that, then let them go be with China and Russia. We'll always welcome them back if they're willing to change their ways.

You are right.  No one else is in the region is going to change alignment.  A Russian alliance with South Korea or Japan would be extraordinarily provocative to North Korea, and by proxy, the DRK's big brother, China.  China has enough problems trying to keep North Korea from self-destructing without the specter of encirclement.

Taiwan is absolutely dependent on its security partnership with the USA.  They gain nothing and lose everything by buddying up to Russia.  And I doubt Russia wants to stick its nose in that mess.

[Ljube]

My dad's going over to the Philippines this weekend to visit his new wife's family who live over there. I'm starting to get worried for him.

I am in Manila now. No change whatsoever.

[Ebsy]

My dad's going over to the Philippines this weekend to visit his new wife's family who live over there. I'm starting to get worried for him.

I am in Manila now. No change whatsoever.

It all makes sense.

[MasterJedi]

My dad's going over to the Philippines this weekend to visit his new wife's family who live over there. I'm starting to get worried for him.

I am in Manila now. No change whatsoever.

It all makes sense.

Ljube is Duterte!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What other American allies must we worry would depart for Russia or China? South Korea? Japan? Taiwan? Any country in Eastern Europe? I highly doubt that. The only reason the Philippines has shifted towards China is because their little demagogic dictator doesn't like being condemned for the Hitler fanboy that he is.

Although I'd really like us to enforce the upholding of democracy and human rights on all of our allies, the fact remains that Philippines did relatively acceptable in this area and is now speeding into dictatorship, so of course they'll be exceptionally criticized. If Duterte or any other tyrant doesn't like that, then let them go be with China and Russia. We'll always welcome them back if they're willing to change their ways.

You are right.  No one else is in the region is going to change alignment.  A Russian alliance with South Korea or Japan would be extraordinarily provocative to North Korea, and by proxy, the DRK's big brother, China.  China has enough problems trying to keep North Korea from self-destructing without the specter of encirclement.

Taiwan is absolutely dependent on its security partnership with the USA.  They gain nothing and lose everything by buddying up to Russia.  And I doubt Russia wants to stick its nose in that mess.

Err did you miss a little called Ma Ying-Jeou's entire presidency? There is a very large faction of the Taiwanese population and elite that wants to tie Taipei with Beijing, especially as they converge irt economic policy.

Quite frankly Russia is of no concern irt threats to American hegemon status. It's a gas station with nuclear capability and bluster. Aside from recent moves in Turkey, they constantly shoot themselves in the foot diplomatically to the extent even natural allies squirm at the potential of keeping their alliance. Yes, I know Germany tends to be relatively pro-Moscow, but who knows how much longer that will last? The fossil dependence also puts a bit of a time bomb on Russia's economy, which is quite significant seeing as energy is ljke it's only significant card aside from military strength.

China is a different matter. Although its regional rivals dislike the Chinese, it's nothing compared to the resentment felt by Poland or the Baltic or Georgia towards Mother Russia. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that (aside from when DPP controls Taiwan) Washington is far more distrusting of Beijing than any other relevant power. There is no equivalent of Poland for example. Perhaps one can argue that recent conflict between Pakistan and India will bring New Delhi into diplomatic conflict with Islamabad's supposed sponsors but I'm sceptical (even if Modi's government has behaved characteristicly thuggishnessly in Nepal recently). Same with SE Asian powers like Indonesia and Vietnam. Even Korea is ambivalent, considering China's recent freezing of relations with DPRK and the fact that a large amount of Koreans loathe Japan and Abe far more than the behemoth to their West.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

China is a different matter. Although its regional rivals dislike the Chinese, it's nothing compared to the resentment felt by Poland or the Baltic or Georgia towards Mother Russia. I don't think it's hyperbole to say that (aside from when DPP controls Taiwan) Washington is far more distrusting of Beijing than any other relevant power. There is no equivalent of Poland for example. Perhaps one can argue that recent conflict between Pakistan and India will bring New Delhi into diplomatic conflict with Islamabad's supposed sponsors but I'm sceptical (even if Modi's government has behaved characteristicly thuggishnessly in Nepal recently). Same with SE Asian powers like Indonesia and Vietnam. Even Korea is ambivalent, considering China's recent freezing of relations with DPRK and the fact that a large amount of Koreans loathe Japan and Abe far more than the behemoth to their West.

Japan is quite Sino-skeptic.  But China and Russia are very different beasts.  The PRC is no longer a state regime in the traditional sense.  They are a giant corporation with an army.  They don't form alliances, they engage in business ventures.

No one has a problem with China as long as business is good.  The USA and Russia are still living in the Cold War, however, and haven't awoken to this reality.

[Santander]

Japan is quite Sino-skeptic.  But China and Russia are very different beasts.  The PRC is no longer a state regime in the traditional sense.  They are a giant corporation with an army.  They don't form alliances, they engage in business ventures.

No one has a problem with China as long as business is good.  The USA and Russia are still living in the Cold War, however, and haven't awoken to this reality.

Please... let's not downplay the pure evil of the subhuman PRC regime.