TN - icitizen: Trump +10

[Gass3268]

Trump 44%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

October 14-17

Source

[Dr. Arch]

Isn't that a really small margin for TN?

[Gass3268]

Anecdotal story, my fiancée's family lives in suburban Nashville. Of the 6 McCain/Romney voters 3 are voting for Clinton, 1 is writing in Marco Rubio, and 1 is either not voting or leaving the Presidential line blank.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Isn't that a really small margin for TN?

It is, but TN polls often undersell Republican margins for some reason.  I would expect a 20-point Trump win, especially with all of the undecideds.  There were a bunch of closer than the final margin polls in 2012 and 2014, if I remember correctly.

[F_S_USATN]

Got money on Trump under 17.5%..I've got a shot

[pbrower2a]

Isn't that a really small margin for TN?

Is the American electorate becoming less polarized by region? We are seeing polls in Mississippi and Louisiana showing Hillary Clinton much closer to being even than Barack Obama ever was.

[Absolution9]

I would be concerned that at this late stage in the game "Someone else" and "undecided" come out to 13% of the vote.  I suspect many of these people are embarrassed Trump leaners, and could break pretty heavy for him on election date.  At this stage in 2012 most of these polls had sub 5% in these categories, vs 8-15% this year across many polls.

[Dr. Arch]

I would be concerned that at this late stage in the game "Someone else" and "undecided" come out to 13% of the vote.  I suspect many of these people are embarrassed Trump leaners, and could break pretty heavy for him on election date.  At this stage in 2012 most of these polls had sub 5% in these categories, vs 8-15% this year across many polls.

Or they just won't vote.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Anecdotal story, my fiancée's family lives in suburban Nashville. Of the 6 McCain/Romney voters 3 are voting for Clinton, 1 is writing in Marco Rubio, and 1 is either not voting or leaving the Presidential line blank.

STOP THE COUNT!!!

[Gass3268]

Can we stop with notion that there are shy Trump voters? In the primaries Trump always hit his polling average (until New York) while the undecideds would almost always break towards the other choices.

[Absolution9]

I would be concerned that at this late stage in the game "Someone else" and "undecided" come out to 13% of the vote.  I suspect many of these people are embarrassed Trump leaners, and could break pretty heavy for him on election date.  At this stage in 2012 most of these polls had sub 5% in these categories, vs 8-15% this year across many polls.

Or they just won't vote.

Possible, if that were the case I guess Trump would win TN by about 12 points according to this poll.

[RI]

Can we stop with notion that there are shy Trump voters? In the primaries Trump always hit his polling average (until New York) while the undecideds would almost always break towards the other choices.

The primary and general have very different dynamics. Stop pretending you know what's going to happen when we simply can't know yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's normal for polling in safe states to underestimate the final margin.  Since a strong majority of the state's voters favor one party (that's why they're safe, ahem), most undecideds in the state tend to break that way.  Trump will probably win TN with a 15% to 20% margin.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's normal for polling in safe states to underestimate the final margin.  Since a strong majority of the state's voters favor one party (that's why they're safe, ahem), most undecideds in the state tend to break that way.  Trump will probably win TN with a 15% to 20% margin.

I can see TN being within 20% of the national PV, which means that if Clinton wins by 8% nationally, Trump wins TN by 12% or less.

[Bacon King]

I would be concerned that at this late stage in the game "Someone else" and "undecided" come out to 13% of the vote.  I suspect many of these people are embarrassed Trump leaners, and could break pretty heavy for him on election date.  At this stage in 2012 most of these polls had sub 5% in these categories, vs 8-15% this year across many polls.

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."