Will Gary Johnson win a county/borough?
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  Will Gary Johnson win a county/borough?
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Question: How many counties/boroughs will he win?
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0
#2
1
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2-5
#4
6-10
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more than 10
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Author Topic: Will Gary Johnson win a county/borough?  (Read 2208 times)
On Fleek
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« on: October 20, 2016, 01:34:19 PM »

In the next presidential election three candidates are likely to win at least one county or Alaskan borough, respectively, which hasn't happened since 1996.
But will Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson also be able to conquer one or more counties?
If not, which will be his best county? If he wins one, which will it be, respectively?

Btw, which election marked the last time that more than three candidates won a county?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2016, 01:48:50 PM »

He'll get a county in NM or SD, or a Borough in AK.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2016, 01:51:29 PM »

His campaign is dead.

I seriously doubt he wins a county in NM. He's more likely to just flip GOP counties to Clinton.
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Spark
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2016, 01:51:50 PM »

2-5
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 01:53:30 PM »

Perot won some counties in 1992.  I voted zero for Johnson, but I suppose he could win some sparely populated county in the Rockies.  McMullin seems more likely to win a county at this point.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2016, 01:55:11 PM »

Perot won some counties in 1992.  I voted zero for Johnson, but I suppose he could win some sparely populated county in the Rockies.  McMullin seems more likely to win a county at this point.
Perot also won 20% of the vote. Gary will be lucky to finish with 5%.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2016, 01:55:53 PM »

Probably not, but then again Ben Carson somehow won a borough in Alaska in the caucus, which seems even more outlandish.
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2016, 02:15:03 PM »

Perot won some counties in 1992.  I voted zero for Johnson, but I suppose he could win some sparely populated county in the Rockies.  McMullin seems more likely to win a county at this point.

McMullin has a 90% chance of winning a county.
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RI
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2016, 02:21:57 PM »

No
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AGA
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2016, 05:11:25 PM »

I doubt that he will. He may come close in New Mexico and Alaska, though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2016, 05:43:12 PM »

Will he come in second place in any counties?  How many counties did Perot come in second place in in 1996?
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2016, 06:09:37 PM »

Will he come in second place in any counties?  How many counties did Perot come in second place in in 1996?


I checked Montana, Nevada, Idaho, Noth Dakota, Minnesota, and Maine. Perot didn't get second in any counties there. He was close in a few though.
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Enduro
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2016, 09:49:12 PM »

Yes, probably more than one.
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On Fleek
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2016, 10:03:04 PM »

Will he come in second place in any counties?  How many counties did Perot come in second place in in 1996?

According to the statistics site: 2

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/stats.php?year=1996&f=1&off=0&elect=0
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DrScholl
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2016, 10:04:53 PM »

No
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On Fleek
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2016, 10:18:16 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2016, 10:23:53 PM by on fleek »

Will he come in second place in any counties?  How many counties did Perot come in second place in in 1996?

I checked Montana, Nevada, Idaho, Noth Dakota, Minnesota, and Maine. Perot didn't get second in any counties there. He was close in a few though.

According to the statistic sites, Perot's best five counties were:

Mineral, MT   23.72%
Grant, ND   21.55%
Shoshone, ID   21.55%
Sanders, MT   21.24%
Billings, ND   21.10%


Could some paying member check Utah?
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On Fleek
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2016, 11:40:57 PM »

I've just checked the gerenal election results on the SOS's website:

https://elections.utah.gov/Media/Default/Documents/Election_Results/General/1996Gen.pdf

Perot came third in each county.
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Bakersfield Uber Alles
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2016, 11:51:55 PM »

Will he come in second place in any counties?  How many counties did Perot come in second place in in 1996?

I checked Montana, Nevada, Idaho, Noth Dakota, Minnesota, and Maine. Perot didn't get second in any counties there. He was close in a few though.

According to the statistic sites, Perot's best five counties were:

Mineral, MT   23.72%
Grant, ND   21.55%
Shoshone, ID   21.55%
Sanders, MT   21.24%
Billings, ND   21.10%


Could some paying member check Utah?

You can see the results in graph form under Election Data and Statistics for each state in each presidential election. It will list it for Dems, Reps, major third parties, and Other. That's what I was using to see if he finished second anywhere. The stats page that was posted didn't help either (in this case). Perot narrowly finished third in several of his best counties. A lot of the best counties for Dole were the worst for Clinton and there wasn't enough left for Perot to sneak in those.
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On Fleek
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2016, 12:18:09 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2016, 12:32:36 AM by on fleek »

You can see the results in graph form under Election Data and Statistics for each state in each presidential election. It will list it for Dems, Reps, major third parties, and Other. That's what I was using to see if he finished second anywhere. The stats page that was posted didn't help either (in this case). Perot narrowly finished third in several of his best counties. A lot of the best counties for Dole were the worst for Clinton and there wasn't enough left for Perot to sneak in those.

Ah, that data is for free? thanks for this information!
Hence I'm going to look up Texas, and...

Bull's eye!

Loving County, Texas: Dole 48 votes - Perot 15 votes - Clinton 14 votes

But that the only county in TX where Perot came second. Sad
There has to be a further county somewhere else...

And Bull's eye the second!

Arthur County, Nebraska: Dole 187 votes - Perot 46 votes - Clinton 25 votes

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publicunofficial
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2016, 12:22:32 AM »

No

I'm of the opinion that most of the people saying they'll vote Johnson/Stein in polls are just going to end up staying home. People say they're likely to vote when asked, but it can be a lot to ask to take the time out of your day to go vote for a candidate that has no chance and you might not be that enthusiastic about anyway.

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On Fleek
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2016, 01:00:27 AM »

I thought that he could win 2 or 3 boroughs in Alaska, but i totally disregarded those tiny Texan counties around the New Mexico border. It is possible that he might win some of them (such as Loving County). Remember, those counties voted heavily in favor of Cruz!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2016, 01:10:12 AM »

Gary Johnson's campaign is in even more of a death spiral than Trump's.  He'll be lucky to beat Nader's 2000 popular vote percentage at this point.
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