Poll: Republicans side with Trump over Ryan for GOP's vision

[JA]

The GOP is certainly in a quagmire, but anyone who believes there will be a permanent third party arising as a result of this is highly unlikely to be correct. Parties are always in flux regarding their espoused views and demographic characteristics; sometimes they reach a point of heightened internal factionalism and this will be resolved through compromise, the clear dominance of one over the other, or the gradual erosion of the voting base of one faction of the party as they switch to their formerly rival party. If the current pattern holds where suburban whites, especially women, become more consistently Democratic voters, then the share of the party occupied by the Trump faction will increase as "RINO" politicians fail to be elected in formerly suburban Republican districts. This is the nightmare scenario for elite Republicans since alienating all but Trump's faction and a few RINO holdouts will make for neither a nice nor nationally competitive party. It could also have notable consequences for the Democratic Party as well when they discover reelection in many districts is dependent upon appealing to the interests of suburban former Republicans.

Equally or, perhaps, even more consequential would be a poll inquiring the position of Republican voters on a series of internally contentious issues. Discover whether it is truly about candidate Trump or Trump's alleged positions that the majority support.

[JA]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-20/poll-shows-republicans-less-committed-to-trump

This is essentially what I had assumed would be the outcome. The majority of Republican voters want the party to combine certain elements of Trumpism with certain elements of movement Conservatism. What they want to preserve and remove from each must be further explored in future research. Either way, I see one result coming from a potentially new GOP, which is national electoral decline as they'll simply solidify themselves as the party of the White working class. The entire Trump/right-wing populist brand has been tainted by this election in the eyes of minorities and most college educated White women. How you come back from that, I don't know.