Can Trump realistically win without Pennslyvania?
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  Can Trump realistically win without Pennslyvania?
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Poll
Question: Can Trump realistically win without Pennslyvania?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: Can Trump realistically win without Pennslyvania?  (Read 1566 times)
User157088589849
BlondeArtisit
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« on: October 20, 2016, 10:40:51 PM »

Florida is a silver bullet for Trump which is looking very bad electorally.

Just can't see a way he wins without Pennslyvania realistically. To many states to the left of PA for trump to get to 270

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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2016, 10:43:44 PM »

Hmmm...Freiwal+FL-CO-NH-ME02-MEAL-WI-NM(Johnson)-VT(Sanders Wink) = election in the House. They'd probably find Johnson repulsive
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2016, 10:51:46 PM »

Romney+FL+OH+IA+WI+ME-02 is 270. That's the least unlikely path without Pennsylvania.

But, the chance of that is very low.
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Rand
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2016, 10:52:45 PM »

Trump realistically can't and won't win.
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Lachi
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 10:54:13 PM »

At this point, it's impossible for him to win. Period.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2016, 10:55:50 PM »

let's wait for the long-term-effect on pussygate and the new post-debate performance.

but yeah, he won't get PA anyway.
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Hammy
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2016, 11:10:52 PM »

Highly unlikely. But she needs to win with more than just PA in order to put an end to the nonsensical "rigged" claims.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2016, 11:15:03 PM »

He can't realistically win, period.

But, I voted yes because his path to 270 prior to pussygate did not include Pennsylvania:
Romney+FL+OH+IA+NV+ME-02+CO/WI.
Even then Pennsylvania was too far gone to be a viable option.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2016, 11:20:29 PM »

PA has been fools gold again for the GOP this election. CO was the state most likely to put him over the top.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2016, 11:40:57 PM »

but yeah, without either FL or PA he is doomed. Without PA he has the Freiwal-crack options in CO/WI, but if he loses FL he better pray for a Michigan upset
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2016, 11:59:36 PM »

The math doesn't add up for Trump without Pennsylvania. The best he could is 260 electoral votes which would involve winning Florida. With Colorado and Virginia out of the equation, he's really in a hole.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2016, 02:40:21 AM »



Trade CO for WI if you so choose.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2016, 08:22:59 AM »


Trump cannot win WI.

This map is literally Trump's only path to victory.  He...

Must win Iowa (slight R for now)
Must win Arizona (tossup to slight D)
Must win Ohio (slight D)
Must win Florida (lean D)
Must win North Carolina (lean D)
Must win Nevada (lean D) to avoid a draw
Must win Utah (? ? ?) to avoid a draw
Must win Colorado (likely D)

Also,
Must win ME-02 and NE-02 if he doesn't win Nevada.

Clinton has six easy paths to victory: CO, FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ.  To quote Matthew Mercer, "How do you want to do this?"
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Incipimus iterum
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2016, 08:30:15 AM »

If Mitt Romney could not win Pennsylvania, then neither can Trump.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2016, 08:51:48 AM »

Yougov Election Model 10/20
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
CO: Hillary 47.2% | TRUMP 42.6%
WI: Hillary 47.7% | TRUMP 44.1%

So, TRUMP's path to make 270 without PA.
Romney + OH(18) + FL(29) + IA(6) + NV(6) + CO(9) = 274
Romney + OH(18) + FL(29) + IA(6) + WI(10) + ME-2(1) = 270

Plus, TRUMP can win Pennsylvania. it is dead heat now.

1. Google Survey Poll(PA). 10/15-10/19
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS

Pennsylvania. 874 LV.
Hillary 36.67% | TRUMP 35.97% | Johnson 7.58%
* Considering, Jill Stein wasn’t in the Poll, Actually Hillary’s numbers should be minus 1~2%.

2. Yougov Election Model Pennsylvania 10/20
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania
Hillary 46.4% | TRUMP 45.8%.   

 
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2016, 09:45:29 AM »

Yougov Election Model 10/20
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
CO: Hillary 47.2% | TRUMP 42.6%
WI: Hillary 47.7% | TRUMP 44.1%

So, TRUMP's path to make 270 without PA.
Romney + OH(18) + FL(29) + IA(6) + NV(6) + CO(9) = 274
Romney + OH(18) + FL(29) + IA(6) + WI(10) + ME-2(1) = 270

Plus, TRUMP can win Pennsylvania. it is dead heat now.

1. Google Survey Poll(PA). 10/15-10/19
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/org//reporting/0B29GVb5ISrT0TGk1TW5tVF9Ed2M/page/GsS

Pennsylvania. 874 LV.
Hillary 36.67% | TRUMP 35.97% | Johnson 7.58%
* Considering, Jill Stein wasn’t in the Poll, Actually Hillary’s numbers should be minus 1~2%.

2. Yougov Election Model Pennsylvania 10/20
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Pennsylvania
Hillary 46.4% | TRUMP 45.8%.   

 

Wisconsin (4-way)Sad
Monmouth   10/15 - 10/18: Clinton +7
WPR/St. Norbert   10/13 - 10/16: Clinton +8
Marquette   10/6 - 10/9: Clinton +7
Loras   10/4 - 10/5: Clinton +8
CBS News/YouGov   10/5 - 10/7: Clinton +4
Gravis   10/4 - 10/4: Clinton +8

Pennsylvania (4-way)Sad
Emerson   10/17 - 10/19: Clinton +4
Quinnipiac   10/10 - 10/16: Clinton +6
Bloomberg   10/7 - 10/11: Clinton +9
Susquehanna   10/4 - 10/9: Clinton +4
CBS News/YouGov   10/5 - 10/7: Clinton +8

If Pennsylvania is a dead heat, so is Missouri.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2016, 01:10:38 PM »

Dubya won twice without Pennsylvania.  
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2016, 01:15:53 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2016, 01:19:24 PM by 2016election »

Realistically yes, He CAN'T win without FL, NC and OH though. Hillary wins any of those three states and Trump CANT win the election.

His only path is carrying all the Romney states and:

OH, FL, NV, IO and he would need to flip one other state for example NH.

I highly doubt PA flips, seems pretty solid Blue, probably by 4 to 6 points she will carry that state.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2016, 01:23:22 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2016, 01:26:19 PM by Likely Voter »

How many EVs does IO have? I am pretty sure that Clinton has a lock on Europa.


As for PA, it has been and remains Trump's plan A (in addition to the must-win states of NC/FL/OH), but they have been spending time and money on various backup plans (the inside straight of NV+NH+IA+ME2).  They did try some spending in MI then stopped. They are also now throwing money at WI and VA. And for some weird reason they sent Pence to NM yesterday. So they seem to know that PA might not work out, but they haven't yet settled on what their other path is.
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catographer
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2016, 01:23:43 PM »

Trump's easiest path according to 538 would not include Pennsylvania. So the answer to the subject question is Yes, he can win without. It's probably his best shot, because he has a better chance of winning New Hampshire, Maine, and Minnesota than he does Pennsylvania.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2016, 01:33:49 PM »

Dubya won twice without Pennsylvania.  

Dubya also had Virginia as safe R both elections, and Colorado lean/likely R.
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Figueira
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2016, 01:38:48 PM »

I mean, he can't realistically win, period, but among his few paths to victory, not all of them include Pennsylvania.
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PeteB
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2016, 01:39:36 PM »

Realistically, why are we even discussing a Trump win?

Mathematically he can win without PA but realistically he CANNOT win - period.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2016, 01:41:18 PM »

Trump really can't win without Florida and North Carolina, two states he is currently trailing.
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Devils30
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2016, 01:51:20 PM »

He needs either WI or PA, all of VA, MI, NH, CO are looking lost for him.
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