1916: Wilson versus Hughes in open election

[Sir Mohamed]

Let’s say William Howard Taft wins reelection in 1912 over William Jennings Bryan, who once again ran for president. TR did not run after losing the GOP nomination. In 1916, Taft does not run again. Woodrow Wilson and Charles Evans Hughes now face each other in an open election. Does Hughes win since Wilson is not the incumbent now?

For the background: Taft kept the US neutral, just as Wilson did in real life.

[Kingpoleon]

298: Justice Charles Evan Hughes(R-NY)/Governor Charles Joseph Bonaparte(R-MD) - 49.5%
233: Governor Woodrow Wilson(D-NJ)/Speaker of the House Champ Clark(D-MO) - 44.0%
Milwaukee Mayor Emil Seidel(S-WI)/Newspaper Editor Allan L. Benson(S-MI) - 5.0%

[President Johnson]

Wilson loses without being the incumbent, but by a narrower margin than most previous Democrats. 1920 could see a swing towards Democrats after World War I and a return "to normalcy".

Former Governor Charles E. Hughes (R-NY)/Former Vice President Charles W. Fairbanks (R-IN): 298 EV. (49.73%)
Governor Woodrow Wilson (D-NJ)/Speaker Champ Clark (D-MO): 233 EV. (46.71%)