Poll Herding in Florida?
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  Poll Herding in Florida?
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Author Topic: Poll Herding in Florida?  (Read 558 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: October 22, 2016, 10:40:01 AM »

This has been discussed in the polling board, but recently several pollsters have all come out of Florida showing Clinton leads of +4. All of these polls were taken between October 10-20.

Public Policy Polling: Clinton +4
Opinion Savvy: Clinton +4
Cherry Communications: Clinton +4
Quinnipiac: Clinton +4
Gravis Marketing: Clinton +4
Ipsos: Clinton +4

This could just be a coincidence, but this a lot of C+4 polls. Do you think pollsters are herding their results around a 4 point Clinton lead?
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2016, 10:47:35 AM »

It's a bit premature for herding.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2016, 10:49:41 AM »

We need to shut down all FL polling until we can figure out what's going on Tongue
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2016, 10:51:23 AM »

Unless they're coordinating, these results were released near-simultaneously. It looks like the race is either heavily stable or this is just one of those unlikely coincidences.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2016, 10:53:50 AM »

Unless they're coordinating, these results were released near-simultaneously. It looks like the race is either heavily stable or this is just one of those unlikely coincidences.
Yeah, but even the SD of one of these polls is a couple of %, not to mention methodology differences. This is just absurd, to have 6 polls within a % of difference...
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2016, 11:05:51 AM »

If you're gonna herd, doing so at the exact same % doesn't make much sense. That would make it a bit too obvious, wouldn't it?
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2016, 11:07:29 AM »

A little surprised Trump people haven't seized on this as evidence of fraud/collusion/whatever.
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