Who will receive more votes (nationwide)?

[On Fleek]

It's truly hard to tell iyam.
On the one hand, Jill has gained ballot access in almost every state, whereas McMullin only has gained some in only eleven states (plus many write-in states).
On the other hand, her poll numbers leave a lot to be desired in each state, whereas he is likely to win a state and will probably do well in another.
 

[bagelman]

The media is bound to cover McMullin's poll numbers in Utah and give him enough of a boost to easily surpass Stein.

[Fitzgerald]

McMullin, easily. Stein's only hope was to pull in disaffected Sanders voters, and I can safely say we've almost universally been reaffected.

[The Other Castro]

That'd be hilarious if the guy that got into the race to win one state received more votes than someone with ballot access in 47 states.

[Pyro]

Everyone in Utah could vote for McMuffin and Stein would still get more votes.

[Senator Spark]

McMullin

[amdcpus]

To those who (erroneously) voted McMullin over Stein, see Strom Thurmond in the 1948 election for why you're incorrect.

[Eraserhead]

The people voting for McMullin are really confused. If Stein gets 3% in California, 2.5% in New York, 1% in Florida (where you can't even write in McMullin), etc. do you realize what a big hole that puts him in?

You have to take into account that having write-in access isn't worth jack sh*t in most cases and in many states he doesn't even have that.

He might win Utah with like 30% of the vote and grab like 10% in Idaho. They're both small states though. Where else is he going to make up the votes that Stein grabs in the big states? The math just doesn't add up.

[On Fleek]

To those who (erroneously) voted McMullin over Stein, see Strom Thurmond in the 1948 election for why you're incorrect.

Good point!

[Fubart Solman]

The media is bound to cover McMullin's poll numbers in Utah and give him enough of a boost to easily surpass Stein.

This is my thought as well. I crunched some 2012 numbers. That's an assumption that my not prove to be true, but it's the best we have.

Utah 40%  1017             407
Idaho 15%   652               98
Colorado 2%   2569          51
New Mexico 1.5%  784     12  
Minnesota 2% 2936          59
Iowa 1% 1582                  16
Arkansas 0.5%  1069          5
Louisiana 0.5% 1994        10
Kentucky 0.5% 1797           9
S. Carolina 0.5% 1964      10
Virginia 2% 3854              77

                                     754(thousand)

I'd say that McMullin can get at least 750,000 votes on the ballots that he's on. That's using 2012 numbers, so it could be a bit higher.

Honestly, I could be way overestimating McMullin. However, he has had a number of articles and is getting some recognition. I haven't heard much from Stein lately and third parties have a history of declining numbers leading up to an election. McMullin seems to be an exception to that, with his numbers increasing as Trump's fortunes flounder in Utah. Honestly, I have no idea, but I'm sticking to it. Admittedly it would be unprecedented for McMullin to get that many write ins, but you never know, especially this year.

I am curious, what is the comparison with Thurmond?

[On Fleek]

I am curious, what is the comparison with Thurmond?

In 1948, Thurmond won three states with an overwhelming majority, plus he broke 10% in several other states.
All those states are way bigger than Utah and Idaho, and in addition, McMullin won't reach those high percentages anywhere near.
All in all, Thurmond received 2.41%, only slightly more than the fourth contender in that four-way race:
Progressive Henry Wallace got 2.37%; his best state was New York (only 8.25%), followed by California (4.73%) and North Dakota (3.8%). In some further states he surpassed 3%, but in most he trailed way behind.
Nonetheless, Wallace was almost able to draw level with Thurmond.

McMullin, this year, will win big in Utah and do well in Idaho. However he has gained ballot access in only 11 states. Jill Stein is on the ballot in almost every state. She will win about 2 or 3 per cent in huge states like California and New York. And those are popular vote numbers McMullin cannot catch up with.

Conclusion: Constant dripping wears the stone.

[7,052,770]

The people voting for McMullin are really confused. If Stein gets 3% in California, 2.5% in New York, 1% in Florida (where you can't even write in McMullin), etc. do you realize what a big hole that puts him in?

I mean, if those numbers are right, sure, she'll top McMullin, but in 2012 Stein got 0.66% in CA, 0.56% in NY, and 0.11% in FL. What basis do you have to think she'll improve that dramatically on her numbers? Remember that in 2012 she wasn't widely known to be a batsh**t anti-vaccine, anti-wifi (wtf?), #LockHerUp conspiracy theorist. Oh, and let's not forget the loony anti-semite she chose for a running mate this time around.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Voter participation was low enough in the Deep South in '48 that total votes in SC+MS+AL were about equal to UT+ID that year in spite of having 3.5x the EVs.

[Eraserhead]

Voter participation was low enough in the Deep South in '48 that total votes in SC+MS+AL were about equal to UT+ID that year in spite of having 3.5x the EVs.

Yeah, but Thurmond won them overwhelmingly. He got over 70% in all of them.

If McMullin wins Utah, and I hope he does, it will be by the skin of his teeth in a multi-candidate race.
He's not going to even come close to winning Idaho, there aren't enough Mormons/Trump haters there for it to happen.

[Eraserhead]

The people voting for McMullin are really confused. If Stein gets 3% in California, 2.5% in New York, 1% in Florida (where you can't even write in McMullin), etc. do you realize what a big hole that puts him in?

I mean, if those numbers are right, sure, she'll top McMullin, but in 2012 Stein got 0.66% in CA, 0.56% in NY, and 0.11% in FL. What basis do you have to think she'll improve that dramatically on her numbers? Remember that in 2012 she wasn't widely known to be a batsh**t anti-vaccine, anti-wifi (wtf?), #LockHerUp conspiracy theorist. Oh, and let's not forget the loony anti-semite she chose for a running mate this time around.

In 2012, she wasn't widely known at all. She's a much more significant factor this year for obvious reasons. That said, she could do a lot worse than I have her doing in those states and still beat McMullin easily because he's not on the ballot in any of them (meaning almost nobody is going to vote for him in the most highly populated states in the country).

If McMullin can even match Stein's 2012 nationwide total, that'd be pretty impressive.

[Fubart Solman]

I am curious, what is the comparison with Thurmond?

In 1948, Thurmond won three states with an overwhelming majority, plus he broke 10% in several other states.
All those states are way bigger than Utah and Idaho, and in addition, McMullin won't reach those high percentages anywhere near.
All in all, Thurmond received 2.41%, only slightly more than the fourth contender in that four-way race:
Progressive Henry Wallace got 2.37%; his best state was New York (only 8.25%), followed by California (4.73%) and North Dakota (3.8%). In some further states he surpassed 3%, but in most he trailed way behind.
Nonetheless, Wallace was almost able to draw level with Thurmond.

McMullin, this year, will win big in Utah and do well in Idaho. However he has gained ballot access in only 11 states. Jill Stein is on the ballot in almost every state. She will win about 2 or 3 per cent in huge states like California and New York. And those are popular vote numbers McMullin cannot catch up with.

Conclusion: Constant dripping wears the stone.

I will say that one of the problems with the Thurmond comparison is how few votes were cast in the southern states compared to northern states of approximately equal population. That may have dampened Thurmond's vote numbers (now, granted a lot of the non-voters were blacks, who obviously wouldn't like Thurmond). I do get the point that you're making though; overall, it's not too bad of a comparison. Rather convenient, really. I'm just not sure that Stein will get that many votes.

[ursulahx]

Even if she only scrapes 1% that could equal 1.3m votes for Stein, so you've got to work out where McMullin is going to get 1.3m votes from.