Competitive House Predictions: TX-23 to WI-08

[ElectionsGuy]

One vote for each race.

Update/Vote in the previous threads. There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall results!

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6 Part 7

Predictions



Safe R: 201
Safe D: 177

Competitive R: 26
Competitive D: 25

Republicans: 227✔
Democrats: 202

Gains

CA-25 (D+1)
CO-06 (D+1)
FL-02 (R+1)
FL-10 (D+1)
FL-13 (D+1)
IL-10 (D+1)
IA-01 (D+1)
MI-01 (D+1)
MN-02 (D+1)
NV-03 (D+1)
NV-04 (D+1)
NH-01 (D+1)
NJ-05 (D+1)
NY-19 (D+1)
NY-22 (D+1)
PA-08 (D+1)

Overall: D+15

My Predictions

TX-23: Gallego (D)
UT-04: Love (R)
VA-04: McEachin (D)
VA-05: Garrett (R)
VA-10: Bennett (D)
WI-08: Gallagher (R)

CA-31 has moved into the safe column via Sabato. This is the final thread, barring other updates before October 28th.

[Xing]

Democrats pick up TX-23 and VA-04. I'm on the fence about VA-10, but I'll say Comstock narrowly holds on, for now.

[Maxwell]

Gallego will defeat Hurd, probably by double digits. Quico Canesco was a better fit for the district and still lost in a more benefical year for Republicans by 5 to Gallego.

I think Trump might do enough down-ballot damage to sink Love - thus I think Owens has a real shot.

Virginia's 4th isn't really competitive, McEachin is a shoe-in. Dittmar might have a chance, but I'm sticking with Tom Garrett.

For Virgnia's 8th, I say it's going to be bad enough in North Virginia for Comstock to lose even with Wash. Po.'s endorsement. Bennett might be a one-termer though as Comstock seems to have faked enough moderate cred to run in 2018 for the seat.

Sadly, Tom Nelson, despite being a solid recruit, probably won't beat Gallagher in the Trump-trending Green Bay area.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bumping for more votes.