If Hillary Clinton wins 53-41, how do you view the election?

[politicallefty]

I have an idea of the electoral map (I think Hillary gets above 400 EV). I think Democrats will net 7-8+ in the Senate and about 40+ in the House, giving Democrats both Houses of Congress.

EDIT (let me clarify):
Presidential map, EV count, and popular vote count
Senate tally
House tally

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

So many Americans supporting Trump would be sad and pathetic.

[politicallefty]

So many Americans supporting Trump would be sad and pathetic.

I share that viewpoint, but how do you see election if that's the result? I could have went with 53-38, but I thought that'd be pushing it. How does the electoral map look and how many seats do Democrats gain in both Houses of Congress under such a scenario? For all intents and purposes, a 53-41 victory is a historic landslide not seen since 1984.

[Person Man]

The first time that stupid was put on the ballot and got pummeled in a long time.

[Virginiá]

The Supreme Court will at the very least be leaning left for first time in modern history. Thank you to all the redneck dumdums that supported Donald Trump from the beginning. Two steps to the left, I'll take it!

Not to mention after 12 straight years of Democratic control, and 20 out of the 28 past years total, the entire federal judiciary will be much more liberal, with the vast majority of judges appointed by Democratic presidents.

That's a huge deal. The Republican streak from '68 - '88 had cemented a conservative majority in all those courts for a long time. Now everything is changing, and rapidly.

[Cashew]

So many Americans supporting Trump would be sad and pathetic.

Honesty, anything more than 33% is disappointing.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I apologize for the reflexive snide response to a serious question. Trump is maddening, and I will be so very glad when this election is over.

53-41 seems possible if Trump and Clinton continue their current trajectories with nothing new of major significance happening. That's if Trump makes no big self-inflicted wounds, and nothing else damaging drops from his history, while the dribble of minor (and overhyped) Clinton scandals continues. In such a case, the GE looks something like this:

That has Clinton winning by 130 EVs. I gave Trump a couple of close ones, but really this is just a ballpark. At 53%-41% he could do a little better, or a lot worse.

Downballot is tougher, because we don't know if the GOP Civil War cools down a bit, holds steady, or gets worse before the election. If things do hold steady, and Trump does not rally his cult to abandon those who he feels have slighted him or stabbed in him in back, then I think it ends with the Dems gaining around round 6 seats, for a final 52-48 Senate.

The House is even more potentially volatile on the GOP side. With Trump at 41%, I'd guess the Dems end with a little over 200 House seats and the GOP retaining control. That could easily swing a long way against the GOP if their civil war gets worse.
 
All the above is not what I expect though. If I was putting money down, it would be on at least one more major erosion in Trump's support, and a somewhat nastier GOP civil war as a result.

[Virginiá]

I'm thinking forward to this point in 2024. Make that 16 straight years of Democratic control. Because in 2020 I believe Republicans will nominate Sheldon Adelson as their nominee. I can dream.

That's my dream (16 straight years)! It's highly likely we'd have a 6-3 SCOTUS majority at that point, and conservative judges on in the federal judiciary would be close to extinction at that point.

By the time Republicans manage to take back the White House in 2024, their agenda would be completely DOA with the public.

[ProudModerate2]

"If Hillary Clinton wins 53-41" (+12), as you say, that would be a "Landslide !" and Hillary would get somewhere near 400 EV's.
The Dems would also have control of the Senate, and they would be very close or just barely take control of the House.
It would be dream-come-true for a Clinton administration.

[Mallow]

53-41 seems possible if Trump and Clinton continue their current trajectories with nothing new of major significance happening. That's if Trump makes no big self-inflicted wounds, and nothing else damaging drops from his history, while the dribble of minor (and overhyped) Clinton scandals continues. In such a case, the GE looks something like this:

The idea that ME02, IA, and OH would vote more than 12 points to the right of the nation as a whole is actually insane.

[Hammy]

The idea that ME02, IA, and OH would vote more than 12 points to the right of the nation as a whole is actually insane.

While I don't think ME02 would go Republican in this scenario, it's still possible to have a smaller EV win despite winning by 12 points if much of that comes from having close votes combined with decent right-leaning third-party votes in traditionally R states.

[evergreenarbor]

Democrats probably end up with about 54 Senate seats (picking up WI, IL, IN, PA, NH, NC, FL, and MO) and end up with ~210-225 seats in the House.

[Orser67]

I think if Clinton wins by 12 points, then Democrats end up with 55 Senate seats and ~225 House seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton narrowly loses Missouri and Georgia (both less than 2), loses Texas, Indiana, Montana, and South Carolina by 3-6 points. Closest Clinton states are Arizona (+2), NE-02 (+4), Iowa (+4), North Carolina (+5), Ohio (+5), and Florida (+6). McMullin narrowly carries Utah, makes a good dent in Idaho.

359-173-6

House probably 220-230 range for Republicans.
With the Senate it might tip NC and MO over the edge though either way its a Dem win 50-52 seats.

[Young Conservative]

Can everyone please stop calling Trump supporters stupid and horrible people? Most aren't just like most Clinton supporters aren't. It is so mean and partisan to generalize like that and I see it on this thread especially... I know doctors, lawyers, preachers, teachers, charity workers, etc who are all voting for Trump and it doesnt make them bad people.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Clinton narrowly loses Missouri and Georgia (both less than 2), loses Texas, Indiana, Montana, and South Carolina by 3-6 points. Closest Clinton states are Arizona (+2), NE-02 (+4), Iowa (+4), North Carolina (+5), Ohio (+5), and Florida (+6). McMullin narrowly carries Utah, makes a good dent in Idaho.

359-173-6

I believe your map is right on the money for an 8-9% Clinton win (which is where I think the race is right now, so it's a very likely map).  But if we're assuming a 53-41 Clinton win, I think several more states flip:

Clinton 443
Trump 89
McMullin 6

[King]

Can everyone please stop calling Trump supporters stupid and horrible people? Most aren't just like most Clinton supporters aren't. It is so mean and partisan to generalize like that and I see it on this thread especially... I know doctors, lawyers, preachers, teachers, charity workers, etc who are all voting for Trump and it doesnt make them bad people.

No. Actually,  most are human garbage.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can everyone please stop calling Trump supporters stupid and horrible people? Most aren't just like most Clinton supporters aren't. It is so mean and partisan to generalize like that and I see it on this thread especially... I know doctors, lawyers, preachers, teachers, charity workers, etc who are all voting for Trump and it doesnt make them bad people.

No. Actually,  most are human garbage.

I dislike Trump as much as anyone, but it's going too far to tar most or all Trump supporters with the same brush.  Are some of them deplorable?  Most certainly.  But those are the ones that get the most attention, so it creates a disproportionate view of all Trump supporters.  I know many Trump supporters who are decent people; they just happen to think Trump is a better -- or less bad -- candidate than Clinton.  Personally I think that view is incredibly misguided, but it doesn't negate the good qualities that those people have.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

According to PVI, Arizona would stay for Trump in a 12-point loss (R+7 means you would lose it when you lose by 14), but we know that the states are lining up differently this year, so I would say Romney-NC-AZ-NE-02.

[pbrower2a]

I apologize for the reflexive snide response to a serious question. Trump is maddening, and I will be so very glad when this election is over.

53-41 seems possible if Trump and Clinton continue their current trajectories with nothing new of major significance happening. That's if Trump makes no big self-inflicted wounds, and nothing else damaging drops from his history, while the dribble of minor (and overhyped) Clinton scandals continues. In such a case, the GE looks something like this:

(my take)

That has Clinton winning by 130 EVs. I gave Trump a couple of close ones, but really this is just a ballpark. At 53%-41% he could do a little better, or a lot worse.

It would be a bigger margin in the popular vote than Obama in 2008> I am going with later (and more relevant) polling evidence. Later polling is almost always more relevant of one has no question of its validity.

Of course we have no polls after the third debate, let alone the kerfluffle about Donald Trump accepting the result of the Presidential elecition under one condition -- that he wins.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Considering that Donald Trump promises to take revenge upon Republicans who don't support him... not that there is any analogue for Jim Jeffords, we could see some pre-emptive defections in both Houses of Congress.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Any Republican who has a large constituency of fundamentalist Protestant voters has some explaining to do for supporting Donald Trump or even failing to make a stand.
 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's a good reason to vote Democratic if one is a moderate conservative. Cut-throat politics are not worth an electoral win.


[/quote]

[Ronnie]

I'm thinking forward to this point in 2024. Make that 16 straight years of Democratic control. Because in 2020 I believe Republicans will nominate Sheldon Adelson as their nominee. I can dream.

That's my dream (16 straight years)! It's highly likely we'd have a 6-3 SCOTUS majority at that point, and conservative judges on in the federal judiciary would be close to extinction at that point.

By the time Republicans manage to take back the White House in 2024, their agenda would be completely DOA with the public.

I'm as thankful as anyone that Clinton is highly likely to save the country from a Trump presidency, but realistically I do think 2020 is almost a lost cause for Democrats unless she retires (and even then, Kaine didn't exactly look like a strong candidate in that VP debate).

Aren't you being a little fatalistic?  The many Hispanics Democrats have mobilized this cycle will still be on the rolls in 2020, and it's not clear they will not turn out for Hillary then as well.  Republicans need to either make inroads with minorities or depress their turnout to win nationwide, and a lot will depend on how they conduct themselves over the next four years and who their next nominee will be.

[politicallefty]

I think if Clinton wins by 12 points, then Democrats end up with 55 Senate seats and ~225 House seats.

That's pretty close to how I'd see a 53-41 Clinton victory. Getting up to 53% would mean a wave had formed and suburban Republicans would be bearing the brunt. She'd be getting at least 60% in most states were Obama did the same, including California. I think about a 40 seat net gain in the House is very realistic under this scenario, but I'm curious to know how you get to 55 in the Senate. Does McCain or Portman go down or is it some wildcard we don't know about?

I really want to win the House. A President Hillary Clinton with a Speaker Nancy Pelosi could do so much over the next two years. I also really want to see the first woman Speaker introduce the first woman President at the State of the Union next year. That would a great moment in this country's history to see.