Am I Crazy or could Trump Still Win?

[BL53931]

Look at the electoral map on ElectoralVote.com and do the math. Clinton's lead is based on narrow margins in several states, including FL, NC, AZ and a few others. Ohio is probably gone and Iowa as well. Trump has actually improved both in the past week.  I can easily envision him pulling this thing out with a narrow electoral win, even finishing a million or more votes behind in the popular vote. Trump is running ads now in swing areas like where I live.

Frankly I am getting terrified. Hillary doesn't seem to be putting this away. That tells me the negative stuff on her is working.  There seems to be an assumption that this is a done deal. It isn't, not by a long shot. Please tell me I'm wrong..

[President Johnson]

I don't see how he's going to win Pennsylvania in addition to Florida and Ohio while keeping all of Romney's states. It doesn't look so good in North Carolina for example. Another path to 270 is de-facto not existent since Virginia and Colorado are gone as well. It also doesn't look like Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota are flipping.

[Rand]

You're wrong and crazy and need to be slapped.

[Mehmentum]

Beet, is that you?

[ursulahx]

Look at the electoral map on ElectoralVote.com and do the math. Clinton's lead is based on narrow margins in several states, including FL, NC, AZ and a few others. Ohio is probably gone and Iowa as well. Trump has actually improved both in the past week.  I can easily envision him pulling this thing out with a narrow electoral win, even finishing a million or more votes behind in the popular vote. Trump is running ads now in swing areas like where I live.

Frankly I am getting terrified. Hillary doesn't seem to be putting this away. That tells me the negative stuff on her is working.  There seems to be an assumption that this is a done deal. It isn't, not by a long shot. Please tell me I'm wrong..

If you're in Nebraska and he needs to advertise there, he's sure not gonna win.

[Maxwell]

oh my god obama isn't putting this away, am i crazy or could McCain still win???

[JerryArkansas]

oh my god obama isn't putting this away, am i crazy or could McCain still win???

Romney and Obama are tied in the polls, it could go either way.

[Mehmentum]

This is the 272 'friewall'.  The red states total to 272.  The weakest of these in polling is Pennsylvania, in which Clinton has a 6.2 lead in the RCP average.  This isn't exactly a narrow lead.

None of the very close states you mentioned are necessary to Clinton's path to the presidency, she could lose FL, AZ, NC, OH, and IA and still win.

And by the way, I don't think Ohio and Iowa are gone.  Its pretty odd that you think that Trump is a lock for Ohio where he leads in RCP by 0.6 points, yet Clinton is super vulnerable in FL and NC where she leads by 3.8 and 2.5 points respectively.

[Cashew]

There are many " undecided" voters who are looking for whatever excuse they can find to vote Trump. He will likely gain a few points only to lose them again next time he does something stupid.

[Torie]

Check the crazy box. This election is over.

[Mehmentum]

There are many " undecided" voters who are looking for whatever excuse they can find to vote Trump. He will likely gain a few points only to lose them again next time he does something stupid.

If anything, candidates like Trump tend to underperform their polls.  Look at Akin, Mourdock, and Wiener (in the mayoral race).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

There are many " undecided" voters who are looking for whatever excuse they can find to vote Trump. He will likely gain a few points only to lose them again next time he does something stupid.

Trump needs to win "undecideds" by something like 2:1 to have a prayer at having a shot. And barring 9/11-scale terror attacks by Boco Haram, that's not going to happen. And that's before making the calculation that there will probably be at least one (if not two) more damaging Trump scandals, either self-inflicted or uncovered from the past.

Stick a fork in Fuher Pussygrabber, this election is DONE.

[Person Man]

I must admit that I am worried that O'Keefe or the Russians are going to find or spin something into a valid case for disqualifying Clinton. Even then though, Trump might gain 3-4 points and will probably need it be that 3-4% of voters lied in polls or it turns out that there are millions of missing minority and liberal voters. The third thing doesn't seem to be happening.

This is Trump's absolute ceiling-
http://www.270towin.com/maps/P8KXL

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I must admit that I am worried that O'Keefe or the Russians are going to find or spin something into a valid case for disqualifying Clinton. Even then though, Trump might gain 3-4 points and will probably need it be that 3-4% of voters lied in polls or it turns out that there are millions of missing minority and liberal voters. The third thing doesn't seem to be happening.

I'm not worried about anything real from WikiLeaks, etc. If they had it, it would have been dropped earlier in the month. I wouldn't bet against something fake being dropped right before the election though.

[Person Man]

I must admit that I am worried that O'Keefe or the Russians are going to find or spin something into a valid case for disqualifying Clinton. Even then though, Trump might gain 3-4 points and will probably need it be that 3-4% of voters lied in polls or it turns out that there are millions of missing minority and liberal voters. The third thing doesn't seem to be happening.

I'm not worried about anything real from WikiLeaks, etc. If they had it, it would have been dropped earlier in the month. I wouldn't bet against something fake being dropped right before the election though.

What about something fake by O'Keefe? Do you think the Democrats are saving the Nagasaki hit piece against teh Donald if the media decides to brew up a scandal?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump could still win, but this would require something crazy to happen.

[TC 25]

Could still win.  He needs two good weeks and modest gains in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, where the polls are all yet close.

15-20 percent chance.

[ursulahx]

Trump could still win from this point in much the same way that McCain could theoretically still have won from this point in 2008. If that helps to get perspective on the race.

[Maxwell]

realistically? Trump would need meager, pathetic voter turnout this year, particularly from minority communities and women, to be able to win. That's not what's happening.

[HillOfANight]

I completely agree with you, he's still in the margin of error in a couple must win states, like NC, FL, OH, IA.

And without early voting in PA, anything can happen.

If there's another Trump Tape this late in the cycle though, he's completely cooked.

[Nym90]

He could, but it would require all of the following:

A major new scandal comes out against Clinton. Not just the same Wikileaks stuff we've been getting....something that fundamentally changes the view of her among swing voters and/or severely depresses Democratic base turnout.

No major new revelations/scandals against Trump...far from a certainty.

A significant polling error. It's not impossible that the polls could be off by up to a 3 or 4 point margin, so if the above scandal gets him to within that margin, he could pull it out.

But it would have to be something really big to move the polls that much at this late stage, because the closer we get to election day, the more firmly entrenched people are in their voting decision.

[ProudModerate2]

This is the 272 'friewall'.  The red states total to 272.  The weakest of these in polling is Pennsylvania, in which Clinton has a 6.2 lead in the RCP average.  This isn't exactly a narrow lead.

None of the very close states you mentioned are necessary to Clinton's path to the presidency, she could lose FL, AZ, NC, OH, and IA and still win.

And by the way, I don't think Ohio and Iowa are gone.  Its pretty odd that you think that Trump is a lock for Ohio where he leads in RCP by 0.6 points, yet Clinton is super vulnerable in FL and NC where she leads by 3.8 and 2.5 points respectively.

I think this explains it best to you (see above).
You ask "Am I Crazy?" and the answer is leaning towards "Yes." (Just playing with you, of course.)


In addition to the states listed above by Mehmentum, that Clinton does NOT need to win (FL, AZ, NC, OH, and IA), Hillary also does NOT need to win the "Toss-up" locations of NV, ME-02 and NE-02.
The 272 FireWall will hold (you only need 270 to win), it's just a matter of how much more will Clinton add to this number, come Nov 8th.
I hope we succeeded in calming your fears.
(PS: Don't listen to Ljube if he posts .... he is nuts.)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Texas is a closer race right now than Pennsylvania. As long as that continues to be the case, you probably don't have anything to worry about.

[°Leprechaun]

Clinton seems to be securing FL as well, although it was extremely close in 2012 (and of course 2000).
It does seem to be trending Democratic and who knows TX could be as well (Trump will probably win TX, but Republicans should be worried about the state in 2020 and beyond). Can Clinton lose PA and win FL?
Can Trump win NH? The firewall of 272 does seem secure today, but will it remain secure for the next two weeks?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

There are many " undecided" voters who are looking for whatever excuse they can find to vote Trump. He will likely gain a few points only to lose them again next time he does something stupid.

I've seen this argument a lot, and I genuinely do not understand it. Have you seen his unfavorable ratings? Pretty much all of the undecided vote has to view him unfavorably in order for the overall numbers to add up correctly; I suspect most of these people are undecided between Clinton/third party/not voting.