Am I Crazy or could Trump Still Win?

[Mister Mets]

It's possible, especially if pollsters make consistent errors in determining who is going to go out and vote, but it's increasingly unlikely.  At this point, pollsters can be off by ten points and that just means Clinton won narrowly.

[andrew_c]

I think that Trump only has about a 5-10% chance of winning, at best. However, that means it is still possible for him to win because his chances are NOT 0%.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Trump doesn't have a "1-5%" chance of winning the election. Voting has already started. It's simply far too late for him to make a comeback.

That's a very naive approach. Sure, it's unlikely, but anything could still happen.

[Person Man]

That sounds like a lot of my liberal friends and family. A lot of them might say Stein, write in another left-wing candidate, say they can't make up thier mind,  or contemplate staying home.

[DrScholl]

It's hilarious that people are still trying to make President Trump happen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes and no.

[dspNY]

When you still see polling showing Ohio close, people aren't going to treat this election as a fait accompli. The average American sees Ohio tied = election somewhat clse

[Mr. Morden]

I have little doubt that Hillary will win the election.  As of now I'd put Trump's chances t 1-5%.  But I think he might do better than we think.

The majority of people I know voted for Romney.  My circle of friends and acquaintances is probably R+20.  However, very few people I know say they are voting for Trump.  Most of them say they are voting Johnson, writing in a candidate, or that they "don't know."  If I had to guess, around 25% of people I know say they'll vote for him.  There is no way that it's that low.  I think that a large number of people who say they'll vote third party are only saying that out of maintaining respectability.

In short, while I highly doubt Trump will win, I think he'll make it a lot closer than people think.  I don't think Hillary's going to win Arizona or Georgia.

Even if "people you know" was a representative sample, what makes you think that some hypothetical Trump supporter reluctance to reveal true voting intentions to friends and acquaintances also means reluctance to reveal true voting intentions to pollsters?

[Lief 🗽]

Wait, so, your evidence that Trump will win is that your solid Republican-voting friends all say they won't vote for him?

[Hermit For Peace]

I think Trump will do worse than we think.

[Fargobison]

What exactly is the motivation for them to vote for him? I doubt Trump's rigged election talk and being a likely loser is some great rallying cry for them to vote for him.

[Maxwell]

Wait, so, your evidence that Trump will win is that your solid Republican-voting friends all say they won't vote for him?

yes this thread is very very odd. It seems like evidence that Clinton will have a substantially larger victory than most (including myself) are expecting.

[Wisconsin+17]

I mean, it depends on the Swing. Trump's down 6. He could lose by one in a squeaker where he's down 2 or 3 in PA, and we have to wait all night.

Or he could lose in an 11 point blowout and we stay up to watch him lose MS, LA and AK.

[PeteB]

I think Trump will do worse than we think.

I agree. This will be a landslide and Trump may be down to 10 states or less. People are still using the Primary yardstick, which is wrong. As I said, back on May 3rd edited for length here):

......
Many people are fooled by the fact that conventional wisdom has not seemed to work with Trump, and with the fact that he has seemed to cruise through scandals in the primaries, that would sink any other candidate. ......

Some are now assuming that he is "Teflon Don" and that he can do or say anything and still win, even in the general election.  They could not be further from the truth.  ....His primitive attacks (and he knows no other way) on her will only further alienate people that do not support him (and he currently only has the firm support of 25-30% of the electorate), and the Democratic machine will hit him hard with mega-millions spent on advertising, highlighting every conceivable position he has ever had, on a multitude of issues, from abortion to women's rights.  The media will also start repeatedly asking him serious questions, to which he has no idea how to respond, and has sadly already shown a laziness to learn.  He will perform one gaffe after another, none of which will get the usual pass he receives now.  He has demonstrated that he is thin skinned and that he cannot overcome knee-jerk reactions; it will be easy for the Clinton operation to lay traps, making him commit one unforced error after another.   He will spend inordinate amounts of time clarifying positions and tying himself further into knots. Not only will he not win new converts, but he will increase his unfavorability ratings even more.  Most Republican officeholders and donors will distance themselves from him, although at that point they would be tainted too.  .....

Finally he will lose "yooge" in the GE and his coattails will sink many GOP Governors, Senators, Representatives and other office holders, with him.  Goldwater's 1964 result (38.5%) will be an unattainable goal for Donald J. Trump, unsuccessful candidate for "Entertainer in Chief".  ....

[Person Man]

I think it about seals it if the media hasn't turn on Hillary because of veritas/FSB by Friday.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Wait, so, your evidence that Trump will win is that your solid Republican-voting friends all say they won't vote for him?

yes this thread is very very odd. It seems like evidence that Clinton will have a substantially larger victory than most (including myself) are expecting.

Which, in turn, will feed the "she cheated" narrative in the minds of the cult.

Because, obviously there's no way that an ignorant stupid racist misogynist incompetent and self-defeating lying idiot scam artist their messiah could lose by that much.

[Hermit For Peace]

Wait, so, your evidence that Trump will win is that your solid Republican-voting friends all say they won't vote for him?

yes this thread is very very odd. It seems like evidence that Clinton will have a substantially larger victory than most (including myself) are expecting.

Which, in turn, will feed the "she cheated" narrative in the minds of the cult.

Because, obviously there's no way that an ignorant stupid racist misogynist incompetent and self-defeating lying idiot scam artist their messiah could lose by that much.

I've noticed that you always sugarcoat your adjectives describing Trump. You must really like the guy.




(NOT)

[BaldEagle1991]

He could still put a Brexit surprise....but even then that's unlikely.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He could still put a Brexit surprise....but even then that's unlikely.

Brexit was ahead a week before the vote...

[ApatheticAustrian]

take it from somebody who watched the brexit polls for years:

brexit was polling better than romney 2012.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I never said Trump would win or that I even wanted him to win.

[Brittain33]

Trump doesn't have a "1-5%" chance of winning the election. Voting has already started. It's simply far too late for him to make a comeback.

That's a very naive approach. Sure, it's unlikely, but anything could still happen.

The only way for "anything to happen" would be if Trump changed his campaign style, what he says, how he reacts to people, the fights he starts. Any Trump turnaround all through 2016 was predicated on him "pivoting."

Not only has he proven himself incapable of changing his spots, but we've just closed the last window for him to make a new impression on voters. It is well and truly over.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, there’s at least some chance that Hillary only picks up NC compared to 2012, but loses OH and IA while GA and AZ remain in the GOP column. Is it likely? No, but it is absolutely possible.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

This is some BushOklahoma-level #analysis

[yawa]

Be quite, folks, all clairvoyants predict that Clinton wins anyways,

  http://www.todaynews24h.com/human-communications-of-the-prophetess-vanga-guess-hillary-clinton-wins-the-u-s-presidential-election/