What is Trump's map to 270 right now?
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  What is Trump's map to 270 right now?
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Poll
Question: Which state is Trump more likely to win?
#1
Pennsylvania
 
#2
Wisconsin
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: What is Trump's map to 270 right now?  (Read 1554 times)
Spark
Spark498
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« on: October 23, 2016, 01:40:25 PM »

What is his most plausible and reasonable path to winning the presidency? He has leads in the average in OH & IA. Within the MOE in NC & FL. Along with ME-02 this gets him to 266. Where else does he need to win? A Trump comeback is not out of the question with 2 weeks to go. Put the bias aside.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2016, 01:41:53 PM »

Well,
Romney states + ME-02 + IA + Ohio + Florida + Wisconsin

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2016, 01:44:20 PM »

Be granted 2 EVs for every company he's bankrupted. Otherwise, ain't happening.
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Rand
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2016, 01:44:36 PM »

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Deblano
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2016, 01:46:13 PM »

I guess Nevada?

Even with this map, he is still short of 270



He could hypothetically win New Hampshire, but it seems to be unlikely at this rate, the same going with Pennsylvania, so I'm having trouble seeing a realistic way he could win excluding the very real possibility of a "Brexit-esque" upset.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 01:47:42 PM »

Basically, the question is which of the 272 freiwall states is the most likely to flip at this point. I'm inclined to say Wisconsin due to the odd behaviour of Iowa.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2016, 01:48:32 PM »

Objectively, it's just really damn tough for him because of the 272 firewall/freiwal:



So from this he's got to flip another state where the polls show him well behind -- NH, PA, CO, WI would probably be the least unlikely options.

One other possibility, and this is really a longshot, is for Johnson to do well enough in NM that it flips to Trump, say T 38, C 36, J 24, others 2.  If Trump also won all the non-freiwal states, that would give him 271:

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psychprofessor
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2016, 01:48:44 PM »

I feel like this post is symptomatic of Republican difficulties in general. Let's state the obvious: as of today, there isn't a path to 270. The question should be: what's Trump's path to 170?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2016, 01:57:32 PM »

Objectively, it's just really damn tough for him because of the 272 firewall/freiwal:



So from this he's got to flip another state where the polls show him well behind -- NH, PA, CO, WI would probably be the least unlikely options.
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Spark
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2016, 01:58:06 PM »

Huh
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Spark
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2016, 02:01:08 PM »

What about Minnesota? Polls showed a close race there. Even though it has historically voted D since 1972 and is progressive, it has a tendency to vote for dark horse candidates.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2016, 02:05:47 PM »

What about Minnesota? Polls showed a close race there. Even though it has historically voted D since 1972 and is progressive, it has a tendency to vote for dark horse candidates.

Since any of these possibilities is unlikely, you could certainly add MN to the list.  I'd consider it less likely to flip than NH etc., but it's more likely than IL or NJ.  You could probably lump MI in with MN as "very unlikely but not absolutely impossible". 
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2016, 02:07:08 PM »

In spite of all evidence, Trump would have to win Virginia.

Perhaps the voters stay home like in the midterms...
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Spark
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2016, 02:07:37 PM »

What about Minnesota? Polls showed a close race there. Even though it has historically voted D since 1972 and is progressive, it has a tendency to vote for dark horse candidates.

Since any of these possibilities is unlikely, you could certainly add MN to the list.  I'd consider it less likely to flip than NH etc., but it's more likely than IL or NJ.  You could probably lump MI in with MN as "very unlikely but not absolutely impossible". 

MN is looking more likely than MI atm IMO. Which is strange to say the least.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2016, 02:08:08 PM »

In spite of all evidence, Trump would have to win Virginia.

Perhaps the voters stay home like in the midterms...


Gonna have to see waaayyy different numbers in the early voting going forward for this one to land.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2016, 02:12:34 PM »

Wisconsin, just for the fact that Clinton has really locked down the Philadelphia suburbs to the point of no return.
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Rand
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2016, 02:13:28 PM »

Stop.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2016, 02:13:31 PM »

What about Minnesota? Polls showed a close race there. Even though it has historically voted D since 1972 and is progressive, it has a tendency to vote for dark horse candidates.

Since any of these possibilities is unlikely, you could certainly add MN to the list.  I'd consider it less likely to flip than NH etc., but it's more likely than IL or NJ.  You could probably lump MI in with MN as "very unlikely but not absolutely impossible". 

MN is looking more likely than MI atm IMO. Which is strange to say the least.
Nobody has been polling MN, which is why 538 is saying this.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2016, 02:18:30 PM »

0 = 0.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2016, 02:19:17 PM »

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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2016, 02:20:19 PM »

Wisconsin, because I think Wisconsin has a lower floor than Pennsylvania, and more true blood Republicans in Milwaukee suburbs than Philly suburbs.

that being said, the chance Trump even wins Wisconsin is tiny - There are just as many areas that hate Trump's guts and are trending hard against him as there are areas that like him and are trending towards him. For any Republican the ceiling in Wisconsin is far too low for a win with Presidential year turnout.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2016, 02:30:15 PM »

Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Wisconsin is just as likely as Minnesota to vote for Trump.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2016, 02:35:01 PM »

Win Shangri-La, Erewhon, Never-never-land, Lemuria, Atlantis, and Oz.

Or add 350 electoral votes suddenly appearing from Russia.

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2016, 02:37:49 PM »

Win Shangri-La, Erewhon, Never-never-land, Lemuria, Atlantis, and Oz.

Or add 350 electoral votes suddenly appearing from Russia.



LOL
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2016, 02:40:20 PM »

Well,
Romney states + ME-02 + IA + Ohio + Florida + Wisconsin

^This, but it's not going to happen.
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