What is Trump's map to 270 right now?

[Hammy]

His road to 270 is and always has been Ohio+Pennsylvania+Florida, and retaining North Carolina. This is looking increasingly likely, barring a reduction in Democratic voters due to overconfidence or widespread voter intimidation in PA, even if he manages to win the other three states.

[Wisconsin+17]

OH + PA + NC + FL is the only plausible route I can see. He can still get there, though the erosion of support in AZ is making things harder.

[DrScholl]

Having his thugs beat up enough Democratic voters before they can get to the polls. But with early voting, the clock is running out on that strategy.

[Green Line]

I can still see a somewhat reasonable path for Trump to 266.  Romney + FL, OH, IA, NV, and ME-1. Those last electoral votes to get him over the hump though are impossible to find.  I suppose it would be Wisconsin, but it's not happening.

[Figueira]

Objectively, it's just really damn tough for him because of the 272 firewall/freiwal:

So from this he's got to flip another state where the polls show him well behind -- NH, PA, CO, WI would probably be the least unlikely options.

One other possibility, and this is really a longshot, is for Johnson to do well enough in NM that it flips to Trump, say T 38, C 36, J 24, others 2.  If Trump also won all the non-freiwal states, that would give him 271:

You switched the two ME districts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Objectively, it's just really damn tough for him because of the 272 firewall/freiwal:

So from this he's got to flip another state where the polls show him well behind -- NH, PA, CO, WI would probably be the least unlikely options.

One other possibility, and this is really a longshot, is for Johnson to do well enough in NM that it flips to Trump, say T 38, C 36, J 24, others 2.  If Trump also won all the non-freiwal states, that would give him 271:

You switched the two ME districts.

So I did.  Thanks for the catch.  Of course, I meant ME-02 to be Republican.

[Badger]

Well,
Romney states + ME-02 + IA + Ohio + Florida + Wisconsin

This. He's been consistently much closer in WI than PA throughout the campaign.

[IceSpear]

Well,
Romney states + ME-02 + IA + Ohio + Florida + Wisconsin

This. He's been consistently much closer in WI than PA throughout the campaign.

Counterpoint...PA has no early voting, except for very strict absentee. So if his only hope is a last minute comeback, he might be better off trying here. That's probably the logic McCain and Romney used with their last minute PA gambit.

[Dr. Arch]

Well,
Romney states + ME-02 + IA + Ohio + Florida + Wisconsin

This. He's been consistently much closer in WI than PA throughout the campaign.

Counterpoint...PA has no early voting, except for very strict absentee. So if his only hope is a last minute comeback, he might be better off trying here. That's probably the logic McCain and Romney used with their last minute PA gambit.

Ds are ridiculously ahead in EV. We're almost at 100% of the 2012 EV here by the way with a much larger lead than then.

[Badger]

Well,
Romney states + ME-02 + IA + Ohio + Florida + Wisconsin

This. He's been consistently much closer in WI than PA throughout the campaign.

Counterpoint...PA has no early voting, except for very strict absentee. So if his only hope is a last minute comeback, he might be better off trying here. That's probably the logic McCain and Romney used with their last minute PA gambit.

And look how well that worked for them....

Ed Rendell and others totally head-faked McCain into coming into PA. Trump is dumb enough to try without encouragement.

[IceSpear]

Well,
Romney states + ME-02 + IA + Ohio + Florida + Wisconsin

This. He's been consistently much closer in WI than PA throughout the campaign.

Counterpoint...PA has no early voting, except for very strict absentee. So if his only hope is a last minute comeback, he might be better off trying here. That's probably the logic McCain and Romney used with their last minute PA gambit.

And look how well that worked for them....

Ed Rendell and others totally head-faked McCain into coming into PA. Trump is dumb enough to try without encouragement.

Well, it didn't work out obviously, but PA was closer than WI both times, even in 2012 when they had a Wisconsinite on the ticket.

[nicholas.slaydon]

[cowboys5xsbs]

What about Colorado last I saw the margins were pretty close there?

[Wisconsin+17]

Same as always. PA or bust.