What about Minnesota? Polls showed a close race there. Even though it has historically voted D since 1972 and is progressive, it has a tendency to vote for dark horse candidates.
Since any of these possibilities is unlikely, you could certainly add MN to the list. I'd consider it less likely to flip than NH etc., but it's more likely than IL or NJ. You could probably lump MI in with MN as "very unlikely but not absolutely impossible".
MN is looking more likely than MI atm IMO. Which is strange to say the least.
Nobody has been polling MN, which is why 538 is saying this.
Poll
