If you know Hillary wins this state, you know she's won all 50

[Blue3]

Let's say it's election night, and for whatever reason you're distracted from paying any attention to the election results. But then you hear your first tidbit of results: Hillary has won the state of __________. After hearing this, you know Hillary has a very likely chance of winning all 50 states.

Which state would this be?



(A year or two ago, I would have said Utah or Texas... but now Utah is a swing state, and Hillary is only behind 4 points in Texas...)

[IceSpear]

West Virginia, obviously.

[Dr. Arch]

You know the answer to this is West Virginia.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

AL/OK, given that they would probably guarantee her a sizable portion of Southern whites (and WV whites are among the more liberal Southern whites, while AL and OK whites are much more inelastic and conservative).

[Kingpoleon]

Oklahoma. West Virginia's more elastic.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Her husband won WV, so I'll go with Oklahoma.

[i4indyguy]

Iowa.  This would mean her deficit w/ non college white either collapsed, or the turnout operations were so vastly different that she was able to overcome a negative lreference with a key statewide cohort.

Iowa may not mean ohio is also won, but I think it would mean the rest if the midwest held.  Therefore, she is president without knowing any particulars about my state, nc, az, nv, co or nh

[Lincoln Republican]

One of these states would be Idaho.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Her husband won WV, so I'll go with Oklahoma.

Donald and Bill are similar in some ways, actually.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Alabama.  It's so inelastic that I think it would be the holdout in a 49-state Clinton landslide.

[rafta_rafta]

Any one of Oklahoma, Alabama and West Virginia. She isn't going to win any of these

[Blue3]

Iowa.  This would mean her deficit w/ non college white either collapsed, or the turnout operations were so vastly different that she was able to overcome a negative lreference with a key statewide cohort.

Iowa may not mean ohio is also won, but I think it would mean the rest if the midwest held.  Therefore, she is president without knowing any particulars about my state, nc, az, nv, co or nh

You misread this thread.

[pppolitics]

Alabama.  It's so inelastic that I think it would be the holdout in a 49-state Clinton landslide.

^ This

[Kalimantan]

It would have to be somewhere that the polls close early, and called quickly so we can predict what happens elsewhere. West Virginia would probably be really close, and so unlikely to be decided until right at the end. So I reckon South Carolina, if its called for Clinton straight away when polls close, that will indicate something huuuuuuuuge is up.

Or maybe Kentucky, I don't think we've seen a poll there in a while, but it has to be one of Trump's top-10 states, so if that gets called quick then that would surely indicate the landslide is coming.

Oh to dream, the impossible dream...

[BaldEagle1991]

West Virginia

[Figueira]

Oklahoma.

[evergreenarbor]

Alabama.

[ApatheticAustrian]

WYOMING.

seems like the absolute traditional and partisan republican state.

[publicunofficial]

Oklahoma

[On Fleek]

WYOMING.
seems like the absolute traditional and partisan republican state.

Nah. If she really wins it, it could could be explained with the relative high Mormon population.

[ProudModerate2]

West Virginia, maybe Oklahoma.

[Bojack Horseman]

Idaho

[nclib]

AL/OK, given that they would probably guarantee her a sizable portion of Southern whites (and WV whites are among the more liberal Southern whites, while AL and OK whites are much more inelastic and conservative).

Agreed - and I'd say Alabama. That said, if we knew of no other state result besides Hillary winning AL (or OK or WV), I still think it's unlikely that Hillary would win 50, partially due to non-uniform trends.

[On Fleek]

Idaho

Nah. If she wins Idaho it is due to McMullin.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Oklahoma.

West Virginia would indicate WCWs lost their faith in Trump and want to give the new, renewable energy economy a shot.  Doesn't necessarily mean Hillary won every state.

Alabama would indicate depressed white turnout and lots of African American enthusiasm for Clinton.  Also that Trump lost the Bible Belt because of his horrible behavior.  Doesn't necessarily mean Hillary won every state.

Wyoming could have been spoiled by Johnson, and Idaho could have been spoiled by McMuffin.

But if Oklahoma goes blue, that's a fundamental shift that means Hillary is winning 65-30 nationwide.  Every state would fall to her.