On election day, will Trump or Clinton over or underperform their polling?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Part of me thinks Trump will overperform his polling numbers, obviously not enough to win, but I do believe there is a decent sized Shy Trump voter effect going on.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I suppose, you're talking about the margin? Otherwise both will overperform, since this election has more undeciders/third parties voters.

[Person Man]

I suppose, you're talking about the margin? Otherwise both will overperform, since this election has more undeciders/third parties voters.

Mhm.

[Kalimantan]

Part of me thinks Trump will overperform his polling numbers, obviously not enough to win, but I do believe there is a decent sized Shy Trump voter effect going on.

I was thinking about the Shy Voter effect today, and what it is that voters have to be shy about. If you're a Democrat or left-leaning Independent, I can see why you'd be shy about voting for Trump and would lie to pollsters. But this election isn't being fought on that territory. With Trump down at 41% in the polls he's losing Republican support and right-leaning independents, that's where the battle seems to be right now. So what do these voters have to be shy about? - probably about NOT voting for the Republican, perhaps for the first time in their lives. I can see a fair number of them saying they'll vote Trump, and not doing so, or saying they'll vote Johnson and actually going for Clinton or not voting at all. In this case, the shy voter effect will lead to Trump (and/or Johnson) underperforming his polls to the benefit of Clinton.

[andrew_c]

I think there are more shy Clinton voters than shy Trump voters out there. 

[Spark]

Trump Overperforms, and gets enough undecideds to swing the election.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Anecdotally, I know far more shy Clinton voters than I do Trump voters.

[BundouYMB]

Clinton will overperform by a few points due to her ground game.

[IceSpear]

I don't know why people assume Trump has more "shy" supporters. During the primaries, Trump had the loud majority and Clinton had the silent majority.

[RINO Tom]

Trump Overperforms, and gets enough undecideds to swing the election.

Was waiting for your scalding hot take.

[Hammy]

Trump Overperforms, and gets enough undecideds to swing the election.

As per the latest CNN poll (and a few others), Trump would have to win -all- undecideds and -all- Johnson voters just to tie nationally.

[psychprofessor]

I don't normally listen to Nicolle Wallace, but she made a good point on MSNBC tonight. Trump supporters are not shy. They actually believe you should be ashamed about voting for Hillary, since she is a criminal and should be prosecuted. I actually, anecdotally, think the reverse is true. There are many more closet Hillary supporters than "shy" Trump supporters.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Trump will overperform.  Clinton will underperform.  Just like in 1996, when Bill Clinton underperformed and Bob Dole overperformed.

Whether or not this translates into a Trump victory is something else.  I expect Clinton to win.  But I believe that Trump will overperform and Clinton will underperform.

[Confused Democrat]

Trump Overperforms, and gets enough undecideds to swing the election.

[Maxwell]

Clinton over-performs, Trump under-performs his general 45% 2-way numbers slightly thanks to "last minute reservations" voters.

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton over-performs, Trump under-performs his general 45% 2-way numbers slightly thanks to "last minute reservations" voters.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The Shy Trump effect is going to be sizable, but not quite enough.  I'll probably get excited for about 30 minutes before it ends in disappointment.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Shy Trump effect is going to be sizable, but not quite enough.  I'll probably get excited for about 30 minutes before it ends in disappointment.

I see no evidence of this shy Trump effect. Noting that while Clinton isn't popular with undecideds, they utterly despise Trump.

[Pyro]

Could go either way at this point.
I could picture last-minute undecides breaking for Clinton.

[DavidB.]

Part of me thinks Trump will overperform his polling numbers, obviously not enough to win, but I do believe there is a decent sized Shy Trump voter effect going on.

I was thinking about the Shy Voter effect today, and what it is that voters have to be shy about. If you're a Democrat or left-leaning Independent, I can see why you'd be shy about voting for Trump and would lie to pollsters. But this election isn't being fought on that territory. With Trump down at 41% in the polls he's losing Republican support and right-leaning independents, that's where the battle seems to be right now. So what do these voters have to be shy about? - probably about NOT voting for the Republican, perhaps for the first time in their lives. I can see a fair number of them saying they'll vote Trump, and not doing so, or saying they'll vote Johnson and actually going for Clinton or not voting at all. In this case, the shy voter effect will lead to Trump (and/or Johnson) underperforming his polls to the benefit of Clinton.

This is probably the right answer.

[°Leprechaun]

Hopefully both will underperform horribly and any and all alternatives ("3rd" parties Independents etc) will surprise us all. Not a prediction, just a hope.

[Vern]

I believe a little bit of both. In some states they will  over perform and in some states they will underperform.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Clinton and Trump overperform and underperform by a couple of percentage points respectively.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I do think that there are some people afraid to admit they are supporting Trump, and he will overperform on election day, but it won't be enough to win the election.

I just wonder which way those who I come across daily who hate both candidates will vote on election day.

[Mr. Morden]

Anecdotally, I know far more shy Clinton voters than I do Trump voters.

How do you know who's a shy Clinton voter or a shy Trump voter?  Do people actually tell you "If a pollster called me, I wouldn't be honest about who I'm going to vote for"?

I really don't get this fixation on "Shy X" voters.  "Shy" in this context means people who will lie to pollsters, not people who aren't vocal about their voting choice with their neighbors.  Why does anyone think there's going to be a big "Shy" effect for either candidate, and what leads you to believe you can predict which candidate that'll be a bigger deal for?

Is there any reason to believe that if the polls end up being off, it's going to be because of a "Shy X" effect moreso than a pollster problem with sample selection?