Republicans "coming home" to Trump?

[Crumpets]

Despite Clinton retaining her high numbers, Trump's numbers have improved about a point and a half in the last week including a full point in just the last two days. It's almost certainly not enough for him to have a full comeback, given just how few undecideds there are left. But might this reflect Republican #NeverTrump holdouts finally accepting reality after the third debate and "coming home" to their nominee as Pence has asked?

[Devout Centrist]

Hillary's up by nine in aggregate, if you look at Huffpost's pollster.

[Mehmentum]

Clinton's down on RCP's average, but that's not reflected in Huffington post's average, and is barely reflected on 538's (the margin has narrowed by a grand total of 0.6 points since the 3rd debate).

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a generic polling question I have, which might have some bearing on this question:

Does the universe of people who are counted as "likely voters" change in any meaningful way as election day approaches?  By which I mean, let's say as election day approaches, you see the %age of folks counted as "undecided" drop, while the %age of folks committed to a candidate grows.  Is that necessarily because previously undecided voters are now deciding?  Or is it possible that many of those folks who are undecided are not likely to vote, and they're dropping out of the likely voter screens because the likely voter screens are better at capturing who is a "likely voter" when we're close to election day, but not as good when election day remains distant?

Thus you could have shifts in candidate support in the polls that have nothing to do with people changing their minds, but which instead have to do with the LV screens becoming more useful just before the election is held?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

My #analysis is that everyone who could have been scared away form Trump had already been scared away before the 3rd debate, therefore "concedegate," "nastygate," and "hombregate" had zero impact if you were still voting for Trump or still undecided.

What we have now is random noise within the MoE.

[IceSpear]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

[Ljube]

Pubs are coming home and it's gonna be massive.

[ursulahx]

Ohio seems to be creeping a bit more back towards Trump, and he's just about holding on in NC. Other than that I'm not seeing much sign of improvement.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

But what if Satans [Powell, Kagan] (R) endorse Jesus (D)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

[Vosem]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

Ted Cruz could've gotten essentially all Republicans, though; the number of otherwise-always-R #NeverCruz voters would've been minuscule. I'd put the number who'd vote for the right party for President over anything else as somewhere in the high 30s -- it seems fairly clear, for instance, that Trump won't hit 45, unless he really overperforms his polling.

[Enduro]

I hope not.

[IceSpear]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

So where did McCain get his 45%? McCain true believers and #NeverObama voters? You're really talking about the same people here, just different sections of the GOP base which will never vote Democratic under ANY circumstances. It doesn't really matter whether they're "pro-Republican" or "anti-Democratic" or both.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Pubs are coming home and it's gonna be massive.

I came home today by voting early.  I even voted for Marco Rubio, who I despise (due to a parochial issue) to cover my bases if this election goes to the Congress.

I honestly don't care if Trump is elected, or if the Congress votes in another Republican, so long as Hillary and her particular crew are gone from our Body Politic forever.

[Vosem]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

So where did McCain get his 45%? McCain true believers and #NeverObama voters? You're really talking about the same people here, just different sections of the GOP base which will never vote Democratic under ANY circumstances. It doesn't really matter whether they're "pro-Republican" or "anti-Democratic" or both.

McCain way outran congressional candidates in a bunch of places, though, and as a candidate he maintained fairly good ratings throughout the campaign. It's pretty clear McCain's campaign did not come close to the Republican floor.

[Dr. Arch]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

So where did McCain get his 45%? McCain true believers and #NeverObama voters? You're really talking about the same people here, just different sections of the GOP base which will never vote Democratic under ANY circumstances. It doesn't really matter whether they're "pro-Republican" or "anti-Democratic" or both.

McCain way outran congressional candidates in a bunch of places, though, and as a candidate he maintained fairly good ratings throughout the campaign. It's pretty clear McCain's campaign did not come close to the Republican floor.

Looks like Trump will put such a theoretical floor to the test this year.

[wolfsblood07]

Pubs are coming home and it's gonna be massive.

I came home today by voting early.  I even voted for Marco Rubio, who I despise (due to a parochial issue) to cover my bases if this election goes to the Congress.

I honestly don't care if Trump is elected, or if the Congress votes in another Republican, so long as Hillary and her particular crew are gone from our Body Politic forever.

Words of wisdom. 

[jamestroll]

Some Republicans I know want to come home to Donald J Trump because of the Supreme Court of the United States.

If you honestly are anti-Trump, voting for him for the Supreme Court is a poor excuse. The Senate could well be Democratic, even under a Trump victory. (See MO and IN).

Also, it is nearly impossible to predict how Supreme Court Justices will shift long term or what the issues before the Supreme Court will be in 5, 15, or 30 years.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

I tend to agree with this analysis.

Therefore, if Trump actually wins, even with fewer popular votes than Hillary, which heads will roll on the Democratic side?  Which Democrats (besides Debbie Wasserman Schultz) will take the blame for clearing the decks and pushing any number of credible Democrats in order that this Walking Abscess of a candidate have a free ride to the nomination?  Who will step up to the pump and take responsibility for clearing the decks for a candidate under FBI investigation?  (Think about that, seriously; THAT has never happened before.)  And what will become of the unsavory Clintonistas whose contempt for Middle Americans have been revealed by WikiLeaks; will they still be players in the Democratic Party?

Hillary's likely to win, so I'll not get to see this "Must-see TV".  But if she does, I'll love every minute of this purge of the Clintonistas.  Podesta, Palmieri, Mook, etc. need to crawl back into the holes they popped out of.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

So where did McCain get his 45%? McCain true believers and #NeverObama voters? You're really talking about the same people here, just different sections of the GOP base which will never vote Democratic under ANY circumstances. It doesn't really matter whether they're "pro-Republican" or "anti-Democratic" or both.

McCain also won over true independents.  In 2016 we are looking at very few true independents (not just people with no party affiliation, but voters who truly swing either way) who are not staying at home, or holding their nose and voting for Hillary.  If Trump does get to 45%, he will have won at least a few of them, but not many.

There are a significant number of Obama voters among the Trump true-believers, from what I've looked at in poll cross-tabs.  That tells you something about where Trump's support comes from.  It extends well beyond the GOP core.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

Cruz would destroy said impeccable Democrat because he's the impeccable Republican.

[Dr. Arch]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

Hillary's likely to win, so I'll not get to see this "Must-see TV".  But if she does, I'll love every minute of this purge of the Clintonistas.  Podesta, Palmieri, Mook, etc. need to crawl back into the holes they popped out of.

Hands off Mook.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

Cruz would destroy said impeccable Democrat because he's the impeccable Republican.

Maybe.

[IceSpear]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

So where did McCain get his 45%? McCain true believers and #NeverObama voters? You're really talking about the same people here, just different sections of the GOP base which will never vote Democratic under ANY circumstances. It doesn't really matter whether they're "pro-Republican" or "anti-Democratic" or both.

McCain also won over true independents.  In 2016 we are looking at very few true independents (not just people with no party affiliation, but voters who truly swing either way) who are not staying at home, or holding their nose and voting for Hillary.  If Trump does get to 45%, he will have won at least a few of them, but not many.

There are a significant number of Obama voters among the Trump true-believers, from what I've looked at in poll cross-tabs.  That tells you something about where Trump's support comes from.  It extends well beyond the GOP core.

There's no such thing as a "true independent." Most "independents" consistently vote for the same party. And even those that are truly in the middle tend to have at least a slight preference.

As for Obama voters voting Trump, that's nothing new. Romney won 7% of Democrats and Obama won 6% of Republicans. It's negligible.

[jamestroll]

Well, I think many of us are approaching this from a "why on earth isn't Hillary leading this clown 55/37" perspective, so we won't be able to assess this accurately.  It does look like the universe of people who will vote for their team no matter what is even larger than we thought.

I will now accept my accolades.

I've said for years now that 45% of the country would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D)!

I'd put that number at only 32% tbh.  Trump's support comes from "R diehards" (32%), plus non-R Trump true believers (6%), plus #NeverHillary not already covered (4%).  That gets you to 42%.  Had a charismatic, impeccable Democrat been the nominee, Trump's floor would drop to 38%.  Had it been a charismatic, impeccable Democrat vs. Ted Cruz, that floor might well be 32% and you'd have the Democrat approaching 500 EV.

So where did McCain get his 45%? McCain true believers and #NeverObama voters? You're really talking about the same people here, just different sections of the GOP base which will never vote Democratic under ANY circumstances. It doesn't really matter whether they're "pro-Republican" or "anti-Democratic" or both.

McCain also won over true independents.  In 2016 we are looking at very few true independents (not just people with no party affiliation, but voters who truly swing either way) who are not staying at home, or holding their nose and voting for Hillary.  If Trump does get to 45%, he will have won at least a few of them, but not many.

There are a significant number of Obama voters among the Trump true-believers, from what I've looked at in poll cross-tabs.  That tells you something about where Trump's support comes from.  It extends well beyond the GOP core.

There's no such thing as a "true independent." Most "independents" consistently vote for the same party. And even those that are truly in the middle tend to have at least a slight preference.

I am "independent" yet almost always vote Democratic. In fact, on my absentee ballot I only voted for one Republican.

Trump being the nominee has seemed to someone depolarize the nation geographically. But he is doing slightly better in many Northeastern States, but losing large vote totals in many Republican states. Many of those states he will just barely win, (I.e. Texas).

Between the 1994 Newt Gingrich partisanship, 2000 Election fiasco, Obama being nominated and election and opening up racist feelings.. our country has become much more polarized. I am hoping it will tend to less polarization.