Can Trump Win Minnesota?

[Ljube]

With Obamacare premiums skyrocketing in Minnesota and indicated by the recent SUSA poll, can Trump actually win Minnesota?

I know it's unlikely and probably not supported enough and if anyone had asked me this a month ago I would have laughed, but I am not so sure anymore.

There is a clear movement toward Trump in recent polls and I think it is caused by Obamacare.


Please discuss.

[Cashew]

There is a clear movement toward Trump in recent polls and

And he will crash yet again for a final time.

[Dr. Arch]

No, no, no and no.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Does the Independence Party has a candidate to play spoiler? Otherwise, no Republican can win statewide in MN.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

No.  Back to the Dumb House with ye.

[DrScholl]

Delete your account.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Possibly. Hillary isn't cracking the necessary % there, and Johnson and Stein support is imploding nationwide.

[rafta_rafta]

No

[Maxwell]

rural minnesota is surging for Trump, but urban and suburban minnesota are surging just as hard for Clinton. I suspect it'll be fine.

[Ljube]

Trump is struggling to win places like Texas and Utah, so needless to say, states like Minnesota will be won by Clinton by double digits..

But therein lies the beauty of the proposition.
Yes, trump can win Texas and Utah by low single digits and Minnesota likewise.

The thing is, traditionally Dem voters in rural Minnesota are with Trump now.
The opposite is happening in Texas/Utah.

[Xing]

Trump won't come close in Minnesota. He's more likely to lose Indiana.

[Fargobison]

Not a chance.

[Enduro]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! No.

[TC 25]

seems unlikely, but he could get to within 5-6 points

[ProudModerate2]

Ljube,
You are being silly again.

[Nyvin]

No.   Minnesota is one of the most educated states in the country.   If Trump is crashing with educated whites, it'll hit him really hard in Minnesota.

[ElectionsGuy]

No, but pretending its way more democratic than a state like Wisconsin or Michigan is silly.

[Ljube]

No.   Minnesota is one of the most educated states in the country.   If Trump is crashing with educated whites, it'll hit him really hard in Minnesota.

He was crashing with educated whites before.
I suppose, with Pubs coming home, this will be less pronounced in new polls.

However, his support among the rural white Dem voters is staggering.

[Ban my account ffs!]

No.   Minnesota is one of the most educated states in the country.   If Trump is crashing with educated whites, it'll hit him really hard in Minnesota.

He was crashing with educated whites before.
I suppose, with Pubs coming home, this will be less pronounced in new polls.

However, his support among the rural white Dem voters is staggering.

You mean from the same poll that had Mills ahead of Nolan by 8 in 2014 only to see Nolan win by 1.4?  Or the same poll in 2012 that showed Cravaack ahead significantly but Nolan won by 9?

Knock about 10 points off that SUSA Trump lead and you have the real picture.  Trump winning MN8 by 2 because of his traditionally Democratic stances on trade.

I'll finish by posting a map of Franken's re election in 2014 when rural MN was 'surging' Republican



It's basically the same map statewide DFLers have seen since forever.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Here is Republican Norm Coleman's victory over Walter Mondale in 2002


Mark Dayton's victory over Rod Grams in 2000


This is to illustrate that the more things change (and Republicans get their hopes up for MN), the more they stay the same.

[NOVA Green]

Here is Republican Norm Coleman's victory over Walter Mondale in 2002


Mark Dayton's victory over Rod Grams in 2000


This is to illustrate that the more things change (and Republicans get their hopes up for MN), the more they stay the same.

Cool!

Thanks for sharing these maps.... so basically even with rural Republican surges in MN, the common denominator with Republican wins versus losses, essentially boils down the Minneapolis-St Paul suburbs, which one might assume will swing more heavily Democratic this year than usual as a result of a large proportion of college-educated Anglos?

[Ban my account ffs!]

Yes.  The suburbs are showing significant movement to the DFL while in legislative races some western MN districts have flipped Republican since 2010 (they moved towards the DFL in 2004, 2006, and 2008, then heavily GOPward in 2010, then flipped back somewhat in 2012 then flipped again slightly in 2014).

I'd say it's very likely that Nolan keeps his seat with the real possibility that MN-2 flips to the DFL making the delegation 6-2 Dem.  on top of that, there is a decent chance the state house flips back to the DFL with some gains in rural areas complemented by gains in the Twin Cities.

At that point the DFL would control 6 of 8 house seats, all statewide offices, both senate seats, and both houses of the legislature.  And the GOP will still be talking about MN trending R.

[dspNY]

No. Next question

[NOVA Green]

Yes.  The suburbs are showing significant movement to the DFL while in legislative races some western MN districts have flipped Republican since 2010 (they moved towards the DFL in 2004, 2006, and 2008, then heavily GOPward in 2010, then flipped back somewhat in 2012 then flipped again slightly in 2014).

I'd say it's very likely that Nolan keeps his seat with the real possibility that MN-2 flips to the DFL making the delegation 6-2 Dem.  on top of that, there is a decent chance the state house flips back to the DFL with some gains in rural areas complemented by gains in the Twin Cities.

At that point the DFL would control 6 of 8 house seats, all statewide offices, both senate seats, and both houses of the legislature.  And the GOP will still be talking about MN trending R.

Minnesota reminds me a bit of Oregon, in that if one looks at maps for close Senate and Statewide elections (Although the Republicans haven't won a statewide office since 2002), it can still be extremely competitive IF the Republicans can actually compete successfully in the suburbs of the main Metro area AND max out their numbers "downstate", although relatively few actual counties flip back and forth over the years.

I mean, even if we look at 2000, and the closest Presidential election in MN in decades, you see almost all counties going for Bush Jr. , but Gore narrowly winning solely on the backs of Minneapolis-St Paul, but losing the suburban counties by a much narrower margin than in statewide elections where a Republican candidate won.

[Spark]

Demographics say yes, ideology says no. So he can, but it is not entirely likely.