Fox National Poll: Clinton +3/+5

[Fargobison]

Clinton 44(-1)
Trump  41(+2)
Johnson 7(+2)
Stein 3(no change)

Head to head

Clinton 49(no change)
Trump 44(+2)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/26/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-three-points.html

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And the pant-wetting will commence again.

[Alcon]

Clinton -1
Trump +2

Last poll 10/15-17

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

And the pant-wetting will commence again.

Why shouldn't there be some worry?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And the pant-wetting will commence again.

Why shouldn't there be some worry?

Because Democrats always over-worry. Democrats always want to have unassailable lead, because "we're the good guys, that guy is a monster" anything that suggests there might have to be a fight, they flounce off in terror.

This is what elections are about, hopefully a tightening narrative will halt any complacency.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 83%
Trump 8%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

GOP
Trump 81%
Johnson 7%
Clinton 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 41%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 14%
Stein 7%

men: Trump +5
women: Clinton +10
whites: Trump +14
non-whites: Clinton +44
white college degree: Clinton +7
white no college degree: Trump +28
urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17
under age 35: Clinton +21
age 35-54: Trump +11
age 55+: Clinton +5
under $50k income: Clinton +14
over $50k income: Trump +1

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Dems
Clinton 83%
Trump 8%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

GOP
Trump 81%
Johnson 7%
Clinton 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 41%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 14%
Stein 7%

men: Trump +5
women: Clinton +10
whites: Trump +14
non-whites: Clinton +44
white college degree: Clinton +7
white no college degree: Trump +28
urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17
under age 35: Clinton +21
age 35-54: Trump +11
age 55+: Clinton +5
under $50k income: Clinton +14
over $50k income: Trump +1

Uh... those cross-tabs do not suggest a 3% lead. Like, at all.

[Gass3268]

Basically Republicans came back, looking at those cross tabs I don't see any way Trump wins.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

And the "Baby's First Election" bunch aka the Atlas newbie Dems are proving to be the sweatiest dogs of them all.  Can you spooked little tikes trust Uncle HockeyDude and know that everything is going to be okie dokie?

[Devout Centrist]

And the "Baby's First Election" bunch aka the Atlas newbie Dems are proving to be the sweatiest dogs of them all.  Can you spooked little tikes trust Uncle HockeyDude and know that everything is going to be okie dokie?

Well, time to commit seppuku.

[NOVA Green]

Today has been insane with the variations in national polling....

This poll in particular, compared to what is now amounting to more like a Fox twice weekly tracking style poll, appears to indicate some of the Republicans that dumped Trump after Gropergate and the 3rd Debate are bouncing back slightly.

What's real and what's not real, idk anymore at this point, but as Clinton has been consolidating Millennials, Trump was losing some Republican leaning voters that may or may not be coming back over the past week, since he's been a relatively good boy and hasn't said anything too outrageous in almost a week now.

Still I'll take a 44/45 in a 4-way and 49/50 in a 2-way any day for Clinton now since her numbers look relatively stable and "baked-in" although obviously there is still room to grow slightly on the margins.

[Landslide Lyndon]

urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17

Um, these numbers actually suggest a Clinton blowout.
Has anyone checked partisan ID numbers? That's usually how Fox polls manipulate the numbers.

[Ronnie]

There's no way Clinton is only leading by 44 points among non-whites.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

22-25 Oct compared to 15-17 Oct

4-way:
LV:
Clinton    44 (-1)
Trump     41 (+2)
Johnson    7 (+2)
Stein         3 (+0)

RV:
Clinton    42 (+0)
Trump     40 (+3)
Johnson    7 (+1)
Stein         3 (+0)

2-way
LV:
Clinton    49 (+0)
Trump     44 (+2)

RV:
Clinton    47 (+0)
Trump     43 (+3)

[dspNY]

The crosstabs in this poll are kind of like that WaPo poll with Clinton +4 where it looked like her lead should have been a lot larger

[DrScholl]

After that issue with Newt Gingrich getting upset it's not really a surprise that Fox News would put out a poll like this.

[Lief 🗽]

It's almost as if Clinton leads by high single digits and so polls showing her up in the low single digits or low teens are to be expected.

[Gass3268]

It's almost as if Clinton leads by high single digits and so polls showing her up in the low single digits or low teens are to be expected.

Exactly, I don't know why people don't get this.

[rafta_rafta]

After that issue with Newt Gingrich getting upset it's not really a surprise that Fox News would put out a poll like this.

Fox News polling has always been very good tbh. This is just another end of the spectrum. To be expected when the race is around 6-7 points

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's almost as if Clinton leads by high single digits and so polls showing her up in the low single digits or low teens are to be expected.

Clinton's best result in 538/Upshot was ~+6.5. Wouldn't call it a high single digit. But I'm more or less agree with you.

Average for God's sake

[Mr. Morden]

urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17

Um, these numbers actually suggest a Clinton blowout.

How are they defining urban, suburban, and rural?  What %age of the country do they put in each basket?  If it was an even split between the three, then the average would be (+22 +7 -17) / 3 = +4, for a 4 point Clinton lead.

[BoAtlantis]

It seems like anywhere from +5 to +7 is most likely her national lead.

[Lachi]

urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17

Um, these numbers actually suggest a Clinton blowout.
Has anyone checked partisan ID numbers? That's usually how Fox polls manipulate the numbers.

I can't find anything about the demographics of the poll

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 83%
Trump 8%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

GOP
Trump 81%
Johnson 7%
Clinton 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 41%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 14%
Stein 7%

men: Trump +5
women: Clinton +10
whites: Trump +14
non-whites: Clinton +44
white college degree: Clinton +7
white no college degree: Trump +28
urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17
under age 35: Clinton +21
age 35-54: Trump +11
age 55+: Clinton +5
under $50k income: Clinton +14
over $50k income: Trump +1

Uh... those cross-tabs do not suggest a 3% lead. Like, at all.

What aspect in particular doesn't seem like a 3% lead?  Because from the crosstabs alone, I would have guessed something like 3-5 points.  E.g., Trump by 5 among men and Clinton by 10 among women averages to Clinton by 2.5 overall if men and women were equal.  Presuming that women slightly outnumber men though would pull it more towards 3 than 2.

[ProudModerate2]

It's almost as if Clinton leads by high single digits and so polls showing her up in the low single digits or low teens are to be expected.

Exactly, I don't know why people don't get this.

Also agree.
And 538 has adjusted this number up from a Clinton +3 to a Clinton +4.
So it's in the overall range of being believable, just slightly on the low-end.