Fox National Poll: Clinton +3/+5 (user search)
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  Fox National Poll: Clinton +3/+5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fox National Poll: Clinton +3/+5  (Read 2092 times)
Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
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« on: October 26, 2016, 05:11:34 PM »

Dems
Clinton 83%
Trump 8%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

GOP
Trump 81%
Johnson 7%
Clinton 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 41%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 14%
Stein 7%

men: Trump +5
women: Clinton +10
whites: Trump +14
non-whites: Clinton +44
white college degree: Clinton +7
white no college degree: Trump +28
urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17
under age 35: Clinton +21
age 35-54: Trump +11
age 55+: Clinton +5
under $50k income: Clinton +14
over $50k income: Trump +1
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 05:48:19 PM »

urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17


Um, these numbers actually suggest a Clinton blowout.

How are they defining urban, suburban, and rural?  What %age of the country do they put in each basket?  If it was an even split between the three, then the average would be (+22 +7 -17) / 3 = +4, for a 4 point Clinton lead.
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2016, 05:53:23 PM »

Dems
Clinton 83%
Trump 8%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

GOP
Trump 81%
Johnson 7%
Clinton 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 41%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 14%
Stein 7%

men: Trump +5
women: Clinton +10
whites: Trump +14
non-whites: Clinton +44
white college degree: Clinton +7
white no college degree: Trump +28
urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17
under age 35: Clinton +21
age 35-54: Trump +11
age 55+: Clinton +5
under $50k income: Clinton +14
over $50k income: Trump +1


Uh... those cross-tabs do not suggest a 3% lead. Like, at all.

What aspect in particular doesn't seem like a 3% lead?  Because from the crosstabs alone, I would have guessed something like 3-5 points.  E.g., Trump by 5 among men and Clinton by 10 among women averages to Clinton by 2.5 overall if men and women were equal.  Presuming that women slightly outnumber men though would pull it more towards 3 than 2.
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Mr. Morden
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*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 08:11:36 PM »

urban: Clinton +22
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Trump +17


Um, these numbers actually suggest a Clinton blowout.

How are they defining urban, suburban, and rural?  What %age of the country do they put in each basket?  If it was an even split between the three, then the average would be (+22 +7 -17) / 3 = +4, for a 4 point Clinton lead.


I doubt it. Romney carried suburbs by 2 and rural areas by 24 and still lost by 4.

But we have no idea if Fox defines urban/suburban/rural the same way that the exit poll service does.  As cinyc noted, for all we know this is just self-reported.
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,073
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 08:52:29 PM »

But yeah, we can't easily extrapolate date from this one particular poll and compare/contrast based upon 2012 exit polls, but regardless of how one chooses to slice and dice, these numbers don't look at all good for Trump unless there are a ton of urban/suburban voters based upon area codes/ zip codes/ self-ID or what have you that fall into a "rural" category considering that over 80% of Americans live in urban/suburban areas by any measure whatsoever.

But why does it matter?  What really matters is the topline number, much moreso than how he's doing with this or that demo.  Unless you can really use the crosstabs to cast doubt on the topline number, but I don't see how you can do that with urban/suburban/rural when we don't know how they're defined in this poll.  If you want to cast doubt on the topline number, then use one of the other crosstabs, where the definition is more clear.
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