Why is the Trump campaign spending resources in Utah?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Mike Pence was in Salt Lake City today, but why? Clinton doesn't have a high enough ceiling, and if McMullin wins the worst it could do is send the election to the House, which will elect Trump in any circumstance. The 6 EVs are effectively locked in.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I can only assume they must be worried about this?  Any other way to make Utah matter requires something really esoteric.

But like I said, even in that scenario the House elects Trump as President. So what is the real downside of losing UT to a third party?

[Mehmentum]

Trump probably figures he can't count on the House to go for him over McMullin, particularly in a situation where he loses the PV.

[Sedona]

Mike Pence was in Salt Lake City today, but why? Clinton doesn't have a high enough ceiling, and if McMullin wins the worst it could do is send the election to the House, which will elect Trump in any circumstance. The 6 EVs are effectively locked in.

I wouldn't say that it's guaranteed that Trump would be elected if the election was thrown into the House.  You'd have enough Republicans who refuse to back him that things could get interesting, and McMullin could matter greatly.

[Ebowed]

Simple answer to this question: Trump is losing, and he is losing very badly!

It does strike me as futile.  It's not like Utah has wholesale rejected the Republican party, in the way that North Carolina has.  It's simply rejecting Trump.  So if Pence is worried about congressional losses, or losses at the state level, then the Republicans could be in even worse shape than we thought.

[Fargobison]

He's sweating like a dog over the fact that his loss will be greater then Romney's. A man he has labeled as a big league choker.

Donnie needs to scrap together any and every electoral vote to save his yuge ego.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump losing Utah won't cause the race to move to the House.  At this point nothing really will.

All Hillary has to do is win the states she's going to win anyway and she's got it.  Trump can win Utah, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona......and she still wins.

[Ebowed]

Trump losing Utah won't cause the race to move to the House.  At this point nothing really will.

All Hillary has to do is win the states she's going to win anyway and she's got it.  Trump can win Utah, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona......and she still wins.

Of course, there's no way he can win North Carolina, Nevada or Florida.  Looks like Georgia is gone, too.

There is very little that their campaign could be responsibly doing at this point.  Why not stake it out in Utah and see if they can stop the McMullin surge?

[Speed of Sound]

McMullin winning Utah is bad for Trump's #brand. The more he can hold tightly to the wallets of his minions, the better for him. Keeping possible GOP insurgence away is for the best, and McMullin is an easy target, unlike Marco .

[HisGrace]

  Looks like Georgia is gone, too.

Why? He's winning all the current polls there.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wouldn't say that it's guaranteed that Trump would be elected if the election was thrown into the House.  You'd have enough Republicans who refuse to back him that things could get interesting, and McMullin could matter greatly.

Refusing to elect a GOP Presidential candidate would destroy the party. There's no way House Republicans would be that stupid.

[Mr. Morden]

I wouldn't say that it's guaranteed that Trump would be elected if the election was thrown into the House.  You'd have enough Republicans who refuse to back him that things could get interesting, and McMullin could matter greatly.

Refusing to elect a GOP Presidential candidate would destroy the party. There's no way House Republicans would be that stupid.

Not if they manage to hold the Senate, and can thus get President Pence instead.  And it's not like it would necessarily take that many defections to block Trump in the House anyway.  The House Republican caucus would mostly vote for Trump, but a few defections could sink him.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Here's the thing:  If McMullin carries Utah, that's 6 EV at his disposal.  This is critical because if Trump wins, he's likely to do so with just over 270 EV.  McMullin is not really an "Independent", but a #NeverTrump movement conservative Republican in the Ben Sasse mold, and he's got an agenda; to put a "Constitutional Conservative" in the White House.

McMullin probably has personal control of the six (6) folks who would serve as his electors.  If he carries Utah, he could have them vote for himself, in which case the House would likely elect Trump, barring massive changes that would allow Hillary to win.

But what if McMullin cast his votes for a sitting Member of Congress who was a bona fide Movement Conservative?  Ted Cruz is the obvious choice in that he ran for President and was endorsed by a lot of folks, but Cruz is personally unpopular.  Lots of GOP Representatives would gag on Cruz as much as they would gag on Trump.  McMullin could name an Establishment Republican like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush, but I don't see that.

What would happen, however, if McMullin DID cause his EV to be cast for, say, Paul Ryan?  Or Jason Chaffetz?  Or some other House member or Senator who was an impeccable Movement Conservative like Ben Sasse; what would happen then?  House Republicans are by no means enamored of Donald Trump; are they not beyond using circumstances to elect a President they really want?

I doubt Evan McMullin hears "Hail to the Chief" when he shaves in the morning.  He knows that the House would never elect him President, but they MAY elect a Movement Conservative with a higher profile who would, doubtless, name McMullin Secretary of State, or a position at that level.  If Trump does not realize this scenario is possible, he ought to.  He needs to carry Utah to preclude this possibility.

[Person Man]

He is contesting Utah because he is a special boy.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

There is a lack of Trump hotels in Utah, or other obvious ways to embezzle his campaign funds. So those saying its about brand or ego are probably right.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Here's the thing:  If McMullin carries Utah, that's 6 EV at his disposal.  This is critical because if Trump wins, he's likely to do so with just over 270 EV.  McMullin is not really an "Independent", but a #NeverTrump movement conservative Republican in the Ben Sasse mold, and he's got an agenda; to put a "Constitutional Conservative" in the White House.

McMullin probably has personal control of the six (6) folks who would serve as his electors.  If he carries Utah, he could have them vote for himself, in which case the House would likely elect Trump, barring massive changes that would allow Hillary to win.

Utah has no laws against faithless electors, so that shouldn't be a problem. I'd imagine that even though the ballots have Nathan Johnson as VP, Utah's McMullin electors would vote for Mindy Finn for VP.

Really it comes down to "what is a faithless elector"? Is it someone who voted against the will of the people or the will of the candidate that they are pledged to?

There haven't been that many applicable instances of "free electors" (discounting 1960). In 1912, Taft's electors chose an alternate VP since Taft's died (not that it mattered). 1872 was a mess and so far back that there might not have been any applicable laws.

Basically, all I'm saying is that it would be completely legal for the McMullin electors to vote for someone else.

[Inmate Trump]

It would look pretty bad if he lost the most reliably Republican state in the nation.

[Vosem]

For the hundredth time:
- When the House elects a President after an Electoral College deadlock, every state gets one (1) vote. California gets one vote, Wyoming gets one vote. Population, or number of representatives, doesn't go into it.
- #NeverTrump Republicans are a very small minority of the caucus. However, they are disproportionately located in small states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska. For this reason, Donald Trump cannot win a House ballot except in the event that the House GOP gains seats outright, and in this event he's probably already won with >270. I am willing to go into much greater detail about which individual members are likely to lose or likely to oppose Trump, and there's a good deal of whiffle either way, but it's very likely that Trump finishes with 20-24 delegations; short of the 26 he needs to win.
- An anti-Trump Republican candidate -- whether it is Gary Johnson, Evan McMullin, or somebody McMullin drafts to contest the House election, as Fuzzy Bear speculates -- cannot possibly hope to win; too many Republicans are pro-Trump (a large majority of the caucus). Hillary Clinton cannot hope to win either.
- In the event Trump actually recovers enough to throw the race to the House, it is overwhelmingly likely that Republicans hold control of the Senate. In this case, while the top three finishers from the presidential race go to the House, only the top two go to the Senate (so, Mike Pence v. Tim Kaine; Mindy Finn would not be an option). Pence would therefore be the winner.
- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

For the hundredth time:
- When the House elects a President after an Electoral College deadlock, every state gets one (1) vote. California gets one vote, Wyoming gets one vote. Population, or number of representatives, doesn't go into it.
- #NeverTrump Republicans are a very small minority of the caucus. However, they are disproportionately located in small states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska. For this reason, Donald Trump cannot win a House ballot except in the event that the House GOP gains seats outright, and in this event he's probably already won with >270. I am willing to go into much greater detail about which individual members are likely to lose or likely to oppose Trump, and there's a good deal of whiffle either way, but it's very likely that Trump finishes with 20-24 delegations; short of the 26 he needs to win.
- An anti-Trump Republican candidate -- whether it is Gary Johnson, Evan McMullin, or somebody McMullin drafts to contest the House election, as Fuzzy Bear speculates -- cannot possibly hope to win; too many Republicans are pro-Trump (a large majority of the caucus). Hillary Clinton cannot hope to win either.
- In the event Trump actually recovers enough to throw the race to the House, it is overwhelmingly likely that Republicans hold control of the Senate. In this case, while the top three finishers from the presidential race go to the House, only the top two go to the Senate (so, Mike Pence v. Tim Kaine; Mindy Finn would not be an option). Pence would therefore be the winner.
- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.

Why wouldn't the House, as a whole, go rogue?

Trump isn't anyone's first choice for President, and all established factions of the GOP are not happy with Trump's hostile takeover of their Presidential Nominating Process.  There's no love lost, and Trump has given his GOP enemies all the excuses a politician would need to stab someone in the back.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wouldn't say that it's guaranteed that Trump would be elected if the election was thrown into the House.  You'd have enough Republicans who refuse to back him that things could get interesting, and McMullin could matter greatly.

Refusing to elect a GOP Presidential candidate would destroy the party. There's no way House Republicans would be that stupid.

Not if they manage to hold the Senate, and can thus get President Pence instead.  And it's not like it would necessarily take that many defections to block Trump in the House anyway.  The House Republican caucus would mostly vote for Trump, but a few defections could sink him.

Couping the Trump faction wouldn't start a civil war because they would accept President Pence? There is no scenario where ~50% of the country would vote for a candidate as President and then his party would accept him being couped. The long-term irreparable damage done to the GOP would outweigh the costs of simply letting Trump into the White House and containing him institutionally.

- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.

In that scenario, couldn't Pence appoint Trump as VP and then resign, defeating any intransigent NeverTrumpers in the House? Even if there were enough of them in the House to suicide the party?

[Vosem]

For the hundredth time:
- When the House elects a President after an Electoral College deadlock, every state gets one (1) vote. California gets one vote, Wyoming gets one vote. Population, or number of representatives, doesn't go into it.
- #NeverTrump Republicans are a very small minority of the caucus. However, they are disproportionately located in small states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska. For this reason, Donald Trump cannot win a House ballot except in the event that the House GOP gains seats outright, and in this event he's probably already won with >270. I am willing to go into much greater detail about which individual members are likely to lose or likely to oppose Trump, and there's a good deal of whiffle either way, but it's very likely that Trump finishes with 20-24 delegations; short of the 26 he needs to win.
- An anti-Trump Republican candidate -- whether it is Gary Johnson, Evan McMullin, or somebody McMullin drafts to contest the House election, as Fuzzy Bear speculates -- cannot possibly hope to win; too many Republicans are pro-Trump (a large majority of the caucus). Hillary Clinton cannot hope to win either.
- In the event Trump actually recovers enough to throw the race to the House, it is overwhelmingly likely that Republicans hold control of the Senate. In this case, while the top three finishers from the presidential race go to the House, only the top two go to the Senate (so, Mike Pence v. Tim Kaine; Mindy Finn would not be an option). Pence would therefore be the winner.
- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.

Why wouldn't the House, as a whole, go rogue?

Trump isn't anyone's first choice for President, and all established factions of the GOP are not happy with Trump's hostile takeover of their Presidential Nominating Process.  There's no love lost, and Trump has given his GOP enemies all the excuses a politician would need to stab someone in the back.

In most districts, the Republican Party has come around and there's broad acceptance of Trump as the nominee among the voters; challenging that acceptance would be dangerous for the vast majority of Republican House members, except the select few in wealthy suburban, heavily Hispanic, or rural Mountain West states whose Republican electorates still oppose Trump. The last group is key, because in a House presidential ballot they have power way disproportionate to their numbers. They are the ones who stop Trump. (They're also the ones breaking for McMullin in the general election rather than Hillary, incidentally).

In that scenario, couldn't Pence appoint Trump as VP and then resign, defeating any intransigent NeverTrumpers in the House? Even if there were enough of them in the House to suicide the party?

The President can't appoint a Vice President unilaterally; the Senate needs to confirm him. #NeverTrump Republicans are a much larger fraction of the Senate than the House; Trump would lose a Senate confirmation unless Republicans gain double-digit seats in the Senate this year.

Whether making Pence President over Trump would start a civil war in the party or not, two things are very clear:
1) The will is not there in the House GOP to make Trump President in a ballot. He has too many opponents in the seats where they can most effectively block him.
2) If Trump does well enough that the election goes to the House, Pence wins the Vice Presidency. Whether anyone intends it or not, he then becomes President if the House doesn't act (as it almost certainly wouldn't). He cannot unilaterally replace himself with Trump. If he resigns, the Speaker of the House becomes President.
3) Incidentally, if Trumpists try to plan a coup against Ryan, electing a Speaker is the House's first order of business. The House does not do a presidential vote at all until a Speaker has been elected.

[Vosem]

More realistic than Trump winning the presidential ballot in the House (which seems to be literally impossible the longer I look at it) is trying to get elected Speaker (this path heavily depends on certain Trumpist members in swing districts surviving); there's no way he can muster a majority of state delegations, but some chance of mustering a majority of House members exists. In that case, if Pence is elected Vice President, he can indeed simply resign and make Trump President. In this scenario, it doesn't matter if Pence loses the Senate vote either; Trump is elected Speaker and then accedes to the Presidency under the Succession Act 1947.

Two flaws to this plan:
1) The vote in the House would be incredibly, incredibly knife-edge. Like, this would come down to 1-2 swing Republicans over whether to make Trump Speaker or not. If it fails, then it fails, and we're back to where we started.
2) One last way still exists to block Trump in the Senate, which is by electing Tim Kaine as Vice President, as that would put him ahead of Trump in the succession. You need 51 votes outright to win a Senate ballot (the outgoing VP can't break ties), so this would also be an incredibly knife-edge option, as you'd need to find a few Republicans (Collins and Graham might do this on ideological grounds; there might be one or two people, like Alexander or McCain, who plan to retire at the next election and might be willing to burn bridges) to vote for Kaine outright. Whether enough hard-enough-core #NeverTrump Republicans would be found in this case is hard to say; also, if they are, all these people would be expelled from the party and vilified permanently. All of their friends would absolutely have to vilify them and talk about their betrayal nonstop. Senate control is probably given up to the Democrats in this scenario.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Thank you for your informative posts, Vosem.

I still doubt, when the chips are down, the real willingness of House Republicans to sabotage their own nominee's coronation. But I suppose this is one of those counterfactuals one will (probably) never be able to prove either way.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Again, this is debatable whether you weigh the damage done by 4 years of Trump to the Republican party. Especially if he fails to get a PV majority and loses Utah to cost him the presidency. There would be lots of pressure on republicans to nominate Clinton outright if she wins the PV.

In short, chaos. This won't happen though, as Clinton will romp if McMullin wins. However, it would be the finishing blow to a decrepit campaign.

Also the GOP does. not. want. indies winning EVs and showing up on the map. It makes sense for the GOP to spend money to obliterate McMullin. Especially if they believe that Trump has already lost.