Why is the Trump campaign spending resources in Utah?

[Vosem]

For the hundredth time:
- When the House elects a President after an Electoral College deadlock, every state gets one (1) vote. California gets one vote, Wyoming gets one vote. Population, or number of representatives, doesn't go into it.
- #NeverTrump Republicans are a very small minority of the caucus. However, they are disproportionately located in small states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska. For this reason, Donald Trump cannot win a House ballot except in the event that the House GOP gains seats outright, and in this event he's probably already won with >270. I am willing to go into much greater detail about which individual members are likely to lose or likely to oppose Trump, and there's a good deal of whiffle either way, but it's very likely that Trump finishes with 20-24 delegations; short of the 26 he needs to win.
- An anti-Trump Republican candidate -- whether it is Gary Johnson, Evan McMullin, or somebody McMullin drafts to contest the House election, as Fuzzy Bear speculates -- cannot possibly hope to win; too many Republicans are pro-Trump (a large majority of the caucus). Hillary Clinton cannot hope to win either.
- In the event Trump actually recovers enough to throw the race to the House, it is overwhelmingly likely that Republicans hold control of the Senate. In this case, while the top three finishers from the presidential race go to the House, only the top two go to the Senate (so, Mike Pence v. Tim Kaine; Mindy Finn would not be an option). Pence would therefore be the winner.
- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.

[Vosem]

For the hundredth time:
- When the House elects a President after an Electoral College deadlock, every state gets one (1) vote. California gets one vote, Wyoming gets one vote. Population, or number of representatives, doesn't go into it.
- #NeverTrump Republicans are a very small minority of the caucus. However, they are disproportionately located in small states, like Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska. For this reason, Donald Trump cannot win a House ballot except in the event that the House GOP gains seats outright, and in this event he's probably already won with >270. I am willing to go into much greater detail about which individual members are likely to lose or likely to oppose Trump, and there's a good deal of whiffle either way, but it's very likely that Trump finishes with 20-24 delegations; short of the 26 he needs to win.
- An anti-Trump Republican candidate -- whether it is Gary Johnson, Evan McMullin, or somebody McMullin drafts to contest the House election, as Fuzzy Bear speculates -- cannot possibly hope to win; too many Republicans are pro-Trump (a large majority of the caucus). Hillary Clinton cannot hope to win either.
- In the event Trump actually recovers enough to throw the race to the House, it is overwhelmingly likely that Republicans hold control of the Senate. In this case, while the top three finishers from the presidential race go to the House, only the top two go to the Senate (so, Mike Pence v. Tim Kaine; Mindy Finn would not be an option). Pence would therefore be the winner.
- If the House simply lets the position of President go unfilled, the Vice President (so, Mike Pence) would then become Acting President. Note that the House must vote on the position of President "immediately"; this probably means that they can no longer elect a President after they go on their first recess after the election and the Presidency is recognized as vacant, so the Vice President accedes to the post by default. Pence would become President in this scenario even if he actively opposes it and lobbies House members to elect Trump.

Why wouldn't the House, as a whole, go rogue?

Trump isn't anyone's first choice for President, and all established factions of the GOP are not happy with Trump's hostile takeover of their Presidential Nominating Process.  There's no love lost, and Trump has given his GOP enemies all the excuses a politician would need to stab someone in the back.

In most districts, the Republican Party has come around and there's broad acceptance of Trump as the nominee among the voters; challenging that acceptance would be dangerous for the vast majority of Republican House members, except the select few in wealthy suburban, heavily Hispanic, or rural Mountain West states whose Republican electorates still oppose Trump. The last group is key, because in a House presidential ballot they have power way disproportionate to their numbers. They are the ones who stop Trump. (They're also the ones breaking for McMullin in the general election rather than Hillary, incidentally).

In that scenario, couldn't Pence appoint Trump as VP and then resign, defeating any intransigent NeverTrumpers in the House? Even if there were enough of them in the House to suicide the party?

The President can't appoint a Vice President unilaterally; the Senate needs to confirm him. #NeverTrump Republicans are a much larger fraction of the Senate than the House; Trump would lose a Senate confirmation unless Republicans gain double-digit seats in the Senate this year.

Whether making Pence President over Trump would start a civil war in the party or not, two things are very clear:
1) The will is not there in the House GOP to make Trump President in a ballot. He has too many opponents in the seats where they can most effectively block him.
2) If Trump does well enough that the election goes to the House, Pence wins the Vice Presidency. Whether anyone intends it or not, he then becomes President if the House doesn't act (as it almost certainly wouldn't). He cannot unilaterally replace himself with Trump. If he resigns, the Speaker of the House becomes President.
3) Incidentally, if Trumpists try to plan a coup against Ryan, electing a Speaker is the House's first order of business. The House does not do a presidential vote at all until a Speaker has been elected.

[Vosem]

More realistic than Trump winning the presidential ballot in the House (which seems to be literally impossible the longer I look at it) is trying to get elected Speaker (this path heavily depends on certain Trumpist members in swing districts surviving); there's no way he can muster a majority of state delegations, but some chance of mustering a majority of House members exists. In that case, if Pence is elected Vice President, he can indeed simply resign and make Trump President. In this scenario, it doesn't matter if Pence loses the Senate vote either; Trump is elected Speaker and then accedes to the Presidency under the Succession Act 1947.

Two flaws to this plan:
1) The vote in the House would be incredibly, incredibly knife-edge. Like, this would come down to 1-2 swing Republicans over whether to make Trump Speaker or not. If it fails, then it fails, and we're back to where we started.
2) One last way still exists to block Trump in the Senate, which is by electing Tim Kaine as Vice President, as that would put him ahead of Trump in the succession. You need 51 votes outright to win a Senate ballot (the outgoing VP can't break ties), so this would also be an incredibly knife-edge option, as you'd need to find a few Republicans (Collins and Graham might do this on ideological grounds; there might be one or two people, like Alexander or McCain, who plan to retire at the next election and might be willing to burn bridges) to vote for Kaine outright. Whether enough hard-enough-core #NeverTrump Republicans would be found in this case is hard to say; also, if they are, all these people would be expelled from the party and vilified permanently. All of their friends would absolutely have to vilify them and talk about their betrayal nonstop. Senate control is probably given up to the Democrats in this scenario.