Why is the race tightening again?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Not bed wetting like others but just wondering why the polls are tightening in the past few days.

[Pandaguineapig]

Likely complacency by dems and moving money into states they are never going to win

[Fusionmunster]

Its not though. *sigh*

[Ebowed]

The opposite is happening - Trump's floor is falling out from underneath him as we type.  He will be lucky to lose by Akin's margin.

[Devout Centrist]

lol

[Maxwell]

My guess? statistical noise.

People are analyzing the race all wrong - there isn't a subset of 20% of the voting population going "wait, i'm for trump, wait, i'm for clinton". A huge, whopping majority have already made up their minds, and probably have made it up since at least the conventions if not earlier.

And it shows in the polls - In the two-way, Trump has never done better than 45% or so, and Clinton has never done worse than about 44%. In the four-way, Trump has never done much better than 41%, Clinton has never done much worse than 40%. Clinton is ahead, and has been ahead for a long time.

The only time "The Donald" has ever managed a full on lead in the polls was during The Republican Convention - the exact time when as a Republican you're SUPPOSED to lead.

[Ljube]

Pubs are coming home.

[Gass3268]

Its not though. *sigh*

Yeah, it really only has a little bit.

How national polls have shifted based on FiveThirtyEight polls-only national polling average:

PERIOD                   DATE           CLINTON   TRUMP   JOHNSON   UNDECIDED / OTHER
Before 1st debate   Sep. 26   42.4   41.0   7.5   9.1 (+1.4)
Before 2nd debate   Oct. 9   44.8   39.7   6.9   8.6 (+5.1)
Before 3rd debate   Oct. 19   45.4   38.8   6.5   9.3 (+6.6)
Today                   Oct. 26   46.0   39.6   5.7   8.7 (+6.4)

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Please don't read below if you don't like to hear a negative view of the democratic parties chances in this election...


Sad to say, but a lot of Americans have fallen for the nationalist/libertarian talk radio and the idea that Obama is this or that. We're kind of lucky that Clinton isn't running against ted cruz, rubio or even Jeb as they'd be up 3-5% right now. You can see this everytime Trump behaves is followed by a recovery as a whole lot of our voting population thinks this way and would rather have a republican.

This would be a very bad election for democrats if it wasn't for Trump.

Of course, I expect to be attacked for saying this but this is how I see things at this moment. I expect Hillary to win but maybe by slightly better than Bush 2004 electoral levels whether than Obama's two wins.

[Kalimantan]

I've just been over to the polls page and I see no evidence of this tightening of which you speak

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Michael Moore

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Please don't read below if you don't like to hear a negative view of the democratic parties chances in this election...


Sad to say, but a lot of Americans have fallen for the nationalist/libertarian talk radio and the idea that Obama is this or that. We're kind of lucky that Clinton isn't running against ted cruz, rubio or even Jeb as they'd be up 3-5% right now. You can see this everytime Trump behaves is followed by a recovery as a whole lot of our voting population thinks this way and would rather have a republican.

This would be a very bad election for democrats if it wasn't for Trump.

Of course, I expect to be attacked for saying this but this is how I see things at this moment. I expect Hillary to win but maybe by slightly better then Bush 2004 electoral levels whether then Obama's two wins.

You need to actually look at the data. Stop panicking, unless you're the type who thrives on it, ie the kind of Democrat who doesn't deserve nice things.

Clinton is winning by at least 6, this 3-5% nonsense is pretty baseless.

[ApatheticAustrian]

simple.

1) +12% is not realistic

2) USA is much more polarized today than even 20 years ago

3) some republicans are rebounding cause they have stopped freaking out.....

[bagelman]

Everyone here's already forgotten about the premium hike with Obamacare?

[Ebsy]

It isn't.

[Wisconsin+17]

In the 4 way, Trump's down 5 with about 6 percent undecideds. That's bad.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In the 4 way, Trump's down 5 with about 6 percent undecideds. That's bad.

Especially what we know about those undecideds, particularly in key states.

[DrScholl]

Some people are really going to go mentally insane on election night when Trump doesn't win. I can't wait to see the reactions and to make fun.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Everyone here's already forgotten about the premium hike with Obamacare?

i honestly believe this thing is overblown and won't change anything.

1) obama is popular like fresh bread.

2) hillary has nothing to do with O-care anyway

3) this stuff is complex and the republicans have run with "repeal and replace" since years.....old like bill's affairs and the people remember how it has been before.

4) trump has shown nothing which could help.....

[Hammy]

Everyone here's already forgotten about the premium hike with Obamacare?

I thought that too, but somebody pointed out in another thread that most of the polls ended on or before yesterday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Everyone here's already forgotten about the premium hike with Obamacare?

I thought that too, but somebody pointed out in another thread that most of the polls ended on or before yesterday.

Again - it's too complicated to have an impact, the media really hasn't paid that much attention to it after 24 hours and most people won't be paying ANYWHERE near the increases being suggested.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Everyone here's already forgotten about the premium hike with Obamacare?

I thought that too, but somebody pointed out in another thread that most of the polls ended on or before yesterday.

Again - it's too complicated to have an impact, the media really hasn't paid that much attention to it after 24 hours and most people won't be paying ANYWHERE near the increases being suggested.

Indeed, it is. But it might and probably will be simplified it to 25% HIGHER!!!!111111 F**K OBAMACARE !!!!111
So it will help Trump a bit, of course.

[Lothal1]

Arrogancy by Democrats? Bad polling?

[Inmate Trump]

You are literally an idiot if you vote for Trump.  A vote for him means you have no concept of how the world actually works.

Sadly, roughly half of the country is stupid and deranged.  That's the reason he got nominated in the first place.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if arrogance would make you lose voters, trump would poll 10 under zero.