What coalition will run Germany after 2017?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm assuming a) that the floor doesn't fall down completely on the Volkspartei and they are able to have a grand coalition without needing the Greens or FDP to join them and b) the AfD is not yet established enough to join a coalition.

[Dereich]

It'll be same in 2017 as it was in 2007. CDU/SDP.

You might want to correct that 2007 thing.

[Beezer]

Merkel will seek to complete the transformation of her party and enter a Jamaica coalition. Munich will revolt and Bavaria secede.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, according to current opinion polling only two coalitions would be able to win a majority right now: CDU/CSU+SPD or CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP.

The next most likely to win at least a numerical majority are CDU/CSU+Greens, followed by SPD+Greens+Left.

CDU/CSU+FDP, SPD+Greens+FDP, or even SPD+Greens are near impossible to achieve IMO.


As for CDU/CSU+Greens(+FDP)... there are many in the CDU and in the "Realo" wing of the Greens who are very sympathetic to the idea as an alternative to another Grand coalition and another four years in opposition respectively. On the other hand we have the CSU and the Leftist wing of the Greens who would scream bloody murder. Representatives from the CSU in particular are regularly reiterating their disdain for any cooperation with the Greens. It works in Baden-Württemberg and Hesse, because there's no CSU and the Greens in both states tend to be highly dominated by the "Realos". But I still can't really envision that this coalition would actually come to be on the federal level.

So, this leaves either CDU/CSU+SPD or the outside chance of SPD+Greens+Left. Considering the SPD only has sh**tty potential Chancellor candidate (and those who wouldn't be sh**tty decline to run), I'd put my money on another Grand coalition. *sigh* We're really on our way to become a second Austria, ain't we?

[aross]

Yeah, exactly the above really. There have been a few encouraging signs for Red-Red-Green recently but I still doubt it'll happen so Historic Compromise 2: The Proporzening it is. Though it'll be the current year so probably actually CDU minority with Petry support or something similarly insane.

[Kingpoleon]

SPD-FDP would be amazing. I doubt it happens unless Merkel retires, though.

[Famous Mortimer]

Germany will be ruled by a perpetual Grand Coalition for the next several decades. The next non-CDU Chancellor after that will be from the AKP West.

[ag]

SPD-FDP would be amazing. I doubt it happens unless Merkel retires, though.

Merkel is better than anybody those two parties have.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Grand Coalition again, sadly. The SPD are morons.

[palandio]

Voted Grand.

There is an outside chance of CDU/CSU+Greens, too. With CDU/CSU at ca. 33%, the Greens at ca. 12% and some smaller parties below the threshold, they are not too far away from a majority. But even in this event, there would be exactly the problems described by Old Europe.

Jamaica on the other hand is arithmetically possible, but won't happen because having CSU, Greens and FDP in one coalition provides for three highly conflict-prone pairings which everyone wants to avoid.

In my opinion, it is positive that SPD+Greens+Left is taken into consideration, because it would make a government without the CDU/CSU theoretically possible and maybe help to avoid the Austrianization of German politics. On the other hand I cannot see at the moment where the voters for a left-of-center majority should come from in the current political environment.

Of course it's still almost a year to go and shifts can happen. At the same time 4 years ago the CDU/CSU was polling ca. 4% points below its 2013 result (average of different polling firms), the SPD ca. 4% above, the Greens ca. 4% above, the Pirates ca. 3% above and the AfD didn't exist.

[SNJ1985]

Grand Coalition