Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Vermont

[Xing]

Pure Toss-Up. I'll say Minter ends up ahead 48-46, meaning she won't officially be declared the winner until the legislature votes her in.

Current Balance of Power:
Republicans: 29
Democrats: 17
Independents: 1

Ratings:

Safe D: Delaware (Jack Markell), Oregon (Kate Brown)
Likely D: Montana (Steve Bullock)
Lean D: Missouri (Jay Nixon), North Carolina (Pat McCrory)
Toss-Up: Indiana (Mike Pence), New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan)
Lean R: -
Likely R: -
Safe R: North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple), Utah (Gary Herbert)

Predictions:

Past winners:

John Carney (D-DE)
John Gregg (D-IN)
Chris Koster (D-MO)
Steve Bullock (D-MT)
Colin Van Ostern (D-NH)
Roy Cooper (D-NC)
Doug Burgum (R-ND)
Kate Brown (D-OR)
Gary Herbert (R-UT)

Previous Threads: (You can still vote in these!)
Delaware Indiana Missouri Montana New Hampshire North Carolina North Dakota Oregon
Utah

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Tossup, Sue Minter 50-47-3

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think Minter will win, but I wonder what happens if Scott ends up with a plurality.  There will probably be some pressure on the Assembly to give him the seat.

[smoltchanov]

My heart is absolutely for Scott. But my head says me that Minter will have just enough "wind in the back" for very narrow victory...

[Figueira]

I think Minter will win, but I wonder what happens if Scott ends up with a plurality.  There will probably be some pressure on the Assembly to give him the seat.

They gave it to Douglas in 2002. They'll give it to Scott this time if he wins a plurality.

Anyway, Tilt Scott, but Minter might pull it off.

[ElectionsGuy]

Toss-Up, 49-46 Minter, goes to legislature and they select Minter. The reason I think Minter will win is because overwhelmingly the undecideds in Vermont are would be Clinton voters/Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Toss-Up, 49-46 Minter, goes to legislature and they select Minter. The reason I think Minter will win is because overwhelmingly the undecideds in Vermont are would be Clinton voters/Democrats.

Not sure. If they are still undecided 10 days before election - they are NOT, most likely, being "solid Clinton voters". And Sanders is solidly in Clinton camp now...

[Figueira]

Toss-Up, 49-46 Minter, goes to legislature and they select Minter. The reason I think Minter will win is because overwhelmingly the undecideds in Vermont are would be Clinton voters/Democrats.

Not sure. If they are still undecided 10 days before election - they are NOT, most likely, being "solid Clinton voters". And Sanders is solidly in Clinton camp now...

I think ElectionsGuy means that they're undecided in the gubernatorial race.

[smoltchanov]

Toss-Up, 49-46 Minter, goes to legislature and they select Minter. The reason I think Minter will win is because overwhelmingly the undecideds in Vermont are would be Clinton voters/Democrats.

Not sure. If they are still undecided 10 days before election - they are NOT, most likely, being "solid Clinton voters". And Sanders is solidly in Clinton camp now...

I think ElectionsGuy means that they're undecided in the gubernatorial race.

May be. We will see soon

[Maxwell]

I think Minter is saved narrowly by the Presidential year, but could lose in a low turnout re-match against Scott in 2018.

[RINO Tom]

Tossup, Scott wins by one.

[AGA]

Tossup, Scott.

[Figueira]

I think Minter is saved narrowly by the Presidential year, but could lose in a low turnout re-match against Scott in 2018.

That will only happen if she does something controversial.

[On Fleek]

Wait? The Vermont governor is elected indirectly?

[RINO Tom]

Wait? The Vermont governor is elected indirectly?

I mean, I guess theoretically in a round about way, but the legislature votes for governor if no candidate reaches 50%.  They've always gone with the candidate who won the most votes.

[JMT]

I think Minter wins by about 2 points, but this race remains a tossup.

[On Fleek]

Wait? The Vermont governor is elected indirectly?

I mean, I guess theoretically in a round about way, but the legislature votes for governor if no candidate reaches 50%.  They've always gone with the candidate who won the most votes.

That's a strange of electing a candidate.
Does this method also apply for other offices, such as representative or senator?

[Figueira]

Wait? The Vermont governor is elected indirectly?

I mean, I guess theoretically in a round about way, but the legislature votes for governor if no candidate reaches 50%.  They've always gone with the candidate who won the most votes.

That's a strange of electing a candidate.
Does this method also apply for other offices, such as representative or senator?

If I'm reading the state's Constitution correctly (section 47) it applies to Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, and Treasurer.

[BuckeyeNut]

Wait? The Vermont governor is elected indirectly?

I mean, I guess theoretically in a round about way, but the legislature votes for governor if no candidate reaches 50%.  They've always gone with the candidate who won the most votes.

That's a strange of electing a candidate.
Does this method also apply for other offices, such as representative or senator?

If I'm reading the state's Constitution correctly (section 47) it applies to Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, and Treasurer.

State Constitution couldn't make a ruling on the election of federal officials anyway.

[Figueira]

Wait? The Vermont governor is elected indirectly?

I mean, I guess theoretically in a round about way, but the legislature votes for governor if no candidate reaches 50%.  They've always gone with the candidate who won the most votes.

That's a strange of electing a candidate.
Does this method also apply for other offices, such as representative or senator?

If I'm reading the state's Constitution correctly (section 47) it applies to Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, and Treasurer.

State Constitution couldn't make a ruling on the election of federal officials anyway.

Well jungle primaries do exist, but I think the VT rule would be blatantly unconstitutional if applied to federal races.

[BuckeyeNut]

Wait? The Vermont governor is elected indirectly?

I mean, I guess theoretically in a round about way, but the legislature votes for governor if no candidate reaches 50%.  They've always gone with the candidate who won the most votes.

That's a strange of electing a candidate.
Does this method also apply for other offices, such as representative or senator?

If I'm reading the state's Constitution correctly (section 47) it applies to Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, and Treasurer.

State Constitution couldn't make a ruling on the election of federal officials anyway.

Well jungle primaries do exist, but I think the VT rule would be blatantly unconstitutional if applied to federal races.

Ah, true. But throwing federal elections back into the State Legislature seems to be in pretty serious conflict with the 17th Amendment.

[mds32]

I think Scott has this now and I think he could pull Brock over the line with the Lt. Governor seat.

[Xing]

Really having a tough time with this one, but I'm going to say Scott gets a 48-47 plurality now.

[Figueira]

I don't get why it took so long for people to realize that Scott is favored, but he doesn't have it in the bag.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't get why it took so long for people to realize that Scott is favored, but he doesn't have it in the bag.

People think the presidential race impacts downballot races in a big way.