Hong Kong Chief Executive election, 2017

[Derpist]

For Lord Halifax, I respect your opinion on the soverignty of Tibet, but I could not agree with it. A slightly enlarged autonomy in the region would soothe the resentment of ethnic Tibetans, for the record.

IIRC, that is the Dalai Lama's current stance. The problem is that Beijing is not willing to agree to slightly enlarged autonomy. Which is pretty silly since for all intents and purposes, China is already intensely decentralized.

[peterthlee]

For Lord Halifax, I respect your opinion on the soverignty of Tibet, but I could not agree with it. A slightly enlarged autonomy in the region would soothe the resentment of ethnic Tibetans, for the record.

IIRC, that is the Dalai Lama's current stance. The problem is that Beijing is not willing to agree to slightly enlarged autonomy. Which is pretty silly since for all intents and purposes, China is already intensely decentralized.

Yeah, but the degree of enlargement is under debate. Of course I strongly oppose any secession movement in Tibet, Xinjiang (separatist language East Turkistan) or Manchuria, as well as formal declaration of independence of Taiwan. These are non-negotiable.

Secessionist language in Hong Kong is now too toxic and becomes a political taboo. Even the State Department of US found no room to tolerate it.

https://www.facebook.com/standnewshk/posts/1128761200542832

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From this perspective, the kingmakers in Beijing could not allow John Tsang to be our next CE. His stance is too lenient on that.

[Derpist]

For Lord Halifax, I respect your opinion on the soverignty of Tibet, but I could not agree with it. A slightly enlarged autonomy in the region would soothe the resentment of ethnic Tibetans, for the record.

IIRC, that is the Dalai Lama's current stance. The problem is that Beijing is not willing to agree to slightly enlarged autonomy. Which is pretty silly since for all intents and purposes, China is already intensely decentralized.

Yeah, but the degree of enlargement is under debate. Of course I strongly oppose any secession movement in Tibet, Xinjiang (separatist language East Turkistan) or Manchuria, as well as formal declaration of independence of Taiwan. These are non-negotiable.

Uh, I can get countries not wanting parts of themselves to leave, but Beijing has a tendency of conflating autonomist movements with secessionist movements. And they're bizarrely terrified of it. The only region that could plausibly want to leave is Tibet, and Tibet has 6 million people. The rest of China has a billion people and nuclear weapons. And Tibet remains a PR nightmare for the government.

And if the government stopped pillaging their country for any wealth they can extract and then spend on American real estate, they'd have enough economic prowess to pretty much control Taiwan by proxy.

[Intell]

Any left wingers and/or socialists in the pro-Beijing camp?

At this stage, no.
TBH, I'm actually a hardcore pro-Beijing socialist advocate, and I would strongly oppose a John Tsang candidacy - he is a old financial guard who has a big mouth, more said than done. No tax rebates, bureaucracy ensues, prompting himself to be a popular contender...heck, no more electoral tactics please.
My wordings might be harsh, and John Tsang somewhat kindly receives public grievances - however, I need to spell out the truth. He is a good listener, but a horrible doer.

Have there even been leftists of the pro-Beijing. regard?

I completely agree with you. What about the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions.

I believe that all ares of china (hongkong, tibet), are better off under one china, hopefully under socialism.

Tibet isn't China. Its a nation in its own right.

No.

[jaichind]

Yeah, but the degree of enlargement is under debate. Of course I strongly oppose any secession movement in Tibet, Xinjiang (separatist language East Turkistan) or Manchuria, as well as formal declaration of independence of Taiwan. These are non-negotiable.

Same here.  I am bit more hard-line than that.  I would say non-unification between Taiwan Province and Mainland China beyond a certain date, I would say in 20 years, would be unacceptable.  I am willing to give my home province of Taiwan some time to get with the picture as I also share, to some extent but for different reasons, negativity toward the PRC regime.  But at some stage national unity has to trump that. 

[jaichind]

Uh, I can get countries not wanting parts of themselves to leave, but Beijing has a tendency of conflating autonomist movements with secessionist movements. And they're bizarrely terrified of it. The only region that could plausibly want to leave is Tibet, and Tibet has 6 million people. The rest of China has a billion people and nuclear weapons. And Tibet remains a PR nightmare for the government.

And if the government stopped pillaging their country for any wealth they can extract and then spend on American real estate, they'd have enough economic prowess to pretty much control Taiwan by proxy.

There are a lot of similarities between the Tibet independence/autonomous movements and the various Indian Northeastern insurgency movements (Naga Mizo Manipur etc etc).  The purpose was never independence or genuine autonomy.  The purpose is the extract the maximize the level of central government subsidies for the local elites.  In India the various insurgency movements are well connected to the local collaborationist elites of the Indian administration.  Whenever more subsidies are needed the latent insurgency are ratcheted up which in turn provokes anther series of economic aid from the Indian central government.  A similar dynamic is taking place in Tibet Province over the last 30 years.   The local CCP Tibetan elites are actually well connected, often by marriage of their children, to elites within the Dalai Lama regime in exile in India.  Borrowing from a 1984 quote: Independence/autonomy cannot be won, it is not meant to be won, the conflict is meant to be continuous to keep the gravy train of central government subsidies flowing.   

[Lord Halifax]

Any left wingers and/or socialists in the pro-Beijing camp?

At this stage, no.
TBH, I'm actually a hardcore pro-Beijing socialist advocate, and I would strongly oppose a John Tsang candidacy - he is a old financial guard who has a big mouth, more said than done. No tax rebates, bureaucracy ensues, prompting himself to be a popular contender...heck, no more electoral tactics please.
My wordings might be harsh, and John Tsang somewhat kindly receives public grievances - however, I need to spell out the truth. He is a good listener, but a horrible doer.

Have there even been leftists of the pro-Beijing. regard?

I completely agree with you. What about the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions.

I believe that all ares of china (hongkong, tibet), are better off under one china, hopefully under socialism.

Tibet isn't China. Its a nation in its own right.

No.

Its the homeland of the Tibetan people, a people with a distinct culture, history and language, so of course its a nation. Tibetans aren't Chinese, simple as that.

[Lord Halifax]

There is something immature about Chinese nationalism. The insistence that any area that once belonged to China has to belong to it again. That no minority population within the state has the right to independence, even if they are the majority (or historic majority) within their ancestral homeland. Hopefully China will gradually develop and mature on this area and start recognizing the right of small nations to self-determination (a central principle in international law for a century).

[Lord Halifax]

For Lord Halifax, I respect your opinion on the soverignty of Tibet, but I could not agree with it.

Why? Apart from the arbitrary "it was part of the empire, so it has to be Chinese", there isn't any legitimate reasons why an alien people with a clearly separate culture and language should be under Chinese rule. You might as well say Algeria should be French, or Finland become Russian.

[peterthlee]

Hey folks, we ought to be back on the right track - discussing the election itself.

Today, a columnist in Ming Pao claimed that the pro-Beijing electorates must congregate in solidarity with Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I), and the order is ‘so strong to be resisted’.

Synchronically, Henry Tang (I), failed 2012 CE candidate and sitting CPPCC standing committee member, praised Lam as a ‘strong leader’.

[peterthlee]

John Tsang Chun-wah (I), after days of wrangling, decided to enter the rate at 15:30, 18/1/2017 HKT. However, various sources indicated that he was way short of the 150 nomination ballots, and he needs to court the pan-democrats.

[peterthlee]

After the entrance of John Tsang Chun-wah (I), the candidates are courting the electorates from dawn till dusk to increase their odds of winning.

For Tsang, he visited the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) followed suit. The bet odds for Lam has skyrocketed over recent days, but she recently embarrassed herself:

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Woo Kwok-hing (I), the only nonpartisan candidate, criticized Lam's comments as 'unjust' to others. Neodemocrats, a local pan-democratic group, took to the Independent Committee Against Corruption of Hong Kong (Hong Kong's graftbuster) to lodge a complaint.

In spite of all these, Lam has at least 27 nomination ballots in her bag, after a meeting with Heung Yee Kuk (literally Rural Committee) President Kenneth Lau Yip-keung (I), heir to 'king of New Territories' Lau Wong-fat.

Meanwhile, Lam has encountered 'service difficulties' in her temporary residence - failing to find toilet paper in her apartment. This made headlines in BBC News and Daily Mail.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- A survey commissioned by Hong Kong Economic Journal shows 48.7% of respondents support Tsang; 39.9% back Carrie Lam, in an assumption that only these two are in the race for the top job, the newspaper says.The survey conducted by the Chinese University of Hong Kong shows 33.5% support Tsang; 30.9% for Lam; 8.1% for Woo Kwok-hing; 7.2% for Jasper Tsang, who is former Legislative Council president and hasn’t announced plans to run; 6.4% for Regina Ip

[Simfan34]

There's something rather ironic about a party called "Youngspiration" being led by someone named Sixtus.

I know very little about any of this, but Regina Ip seems like she'd be the sort of pro-Beijing hardliner that would inflame tensions.

[peterthlee]

There's something rather ironic about a party called "Youngspiration" being led by someone named Sixtus.

I know very little about any of this, but Regina Ip seems like she'd be the sort of pro-Beijing hardliner that would inflame tensions.

Yea, they are ultra-massive HP when they altered their oaths of office with swear words such as Shina, which could get a bunch of Battle of Hong Kong comrades frenzy. Ultimately, they have to be removed from office by an injunction preceded by NPCSC interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law.

From this, Regina Ip (NPP) is certainly not the best choice. John Tsang Chun-wah (I) could be a hardliner on Hong Kong Independence, but the same poll found by jaichind exemplified:

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This could be a nail in the coffin for Tsang. In light of this, the powerhouses of Tsang, those commerce chambers, voiced unanimous support for Lam. Even Tsang's former colleague and failed 2012 CE candidate, Henry Tang (I), has secretly been with Lam, deduced by his public appearances.

[peterthlee]

Yesterday, Agricultural and Fisheries electorate, which bears 60 ballots, had respective meetings with Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) and Regina Ip (NPP). They emphasized that they will nominate a single candidate as a group.

It is widely anticipated that they will unequivocally nominate Lam in due course.

Despite poor public relation strategies, a poll by Hong Kong Economic Journal (which was quoted by jaichind earlier), found the margin between Tsang and Lam be Tsang +2.4 percent. This was the closest margin so far, and Tsang's initial comfortable lead was narrowed by 6.1 percentage points. Moreover, 63.5% of interviewees though that Lam will win outright.

[peterthlee]

Newest betting data from a Taiwanese website:
http://app.xsmart4.com/eventsPage?id=99b9df31-5094-4ff3-aa98-c34d56bee3ef&c=t
Lam widened her lead, to nearly 8 percentage points, a little bit.

[peterthlee]

Today, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) made her first campaign rally at HKCEC, right next to her temporary 'campaign residence'.

Hordes of first-class calibre in Hong Kong politics and economics, including:
Joseph Yam, former Monetary Authority Chief, who had agreed to be the chief consultant of Lam's campaign;
Cheng Yiu-tong, non-official member of the Executive Council;
Rita Fan, sitting NPCSC standing committee member and former LegCo President;
Wong Wing-kwong, Sino Group standing management committee member;
Chan Wing-kee, CPPCC standing committee member;
Timothy Fok, eldest son of late oligarch and renowned entrepreneur Henry Fok, cum President of the Hong Kong Olympic committee.

Former FTU MP for Kowloon West Constituency, Lau Chin-shek (I), also voiced staunch support for them.

Moreover, the Chinese Chamber of Commerce, agricultural and fisheries sector, plus the Athletics sector, all expressed unanimous support for Lam. Lam has basically secured the essential 150-ballot threshold nominations to enter the race.

On the other side, disgraced Development Chief Mak Chai-kwong, gave his credentials to John Tsang Chun-wah (I). Simultaneously, Tsang initiated a public fund-raising campaign; but the server experienced technical errors for a while. Up till 21.00 HKT (3/2/2017), the campaign's garnered over 1 million funds.

[peterthlee]

FYI, John Tsang's support from finance sector, which used to be his power generator, slip from his fingers to Carrie Lam. After today's campaign rally, he bled so much support from his former comrades that he needs to raise public funds to sustain his campaign.

Without the non-establishments rallying around him (portraying him as lesser evil even he is adamant that Article 23 legislation is compulsory), he has crashed already.

A small bunch of non-establishments even abandoned their political principles just to save him. I'm quite confused by this. If they are on this wrong track, they will flop in the end, in a mess.

Sadly, I can't go to poll stations to choose my next CE. Both the government and the non-establishments share equal responsibility.

Finally, owing to my pan-Chinese nationalism, I'm going to endorse Carrie Lam.

[peterthlee]

HK01, a news outlet, recently suggested that officials from Beijing will convey the message of which candidate the Central Government currently favours in due course, under the pretext of luncheon with pro-Beijing electorate (it is likely to be Carrie Lam, though).

This game of 'leader guessing' is going to be more exciting than a genuine direct PV election.

[peterthlee]

LSD President cum New Territories East MP Leung Kwok-hung will unfold his bid tomorrow. He would be the first distinct non-establishment to join the race.

Lamentably, his bid is not welcomed by non-establishment electorates, who now favour 'lesser evils' Tsang or Woo to cross the essential 150-ballot nomination threshold.

Coincidentally, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) launched her official facebook page yesterday.
The site could be reached here:
https://www.facebook.com/carrielam2017/
However, angers surface and blossom after she launched her fb site. The tally for 'angers' is nearly 6 times than the tally for 'likes'.

[peterthlee]

New poll from a pro-Beijing group 'Hong Kong Research Association':
John Tsang Chun-wah (I) 36% (+1)
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) 35%
Woo Kwok-hing (I) 13%
Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP) 8%
Sample size: 1856 adults (18 years old or above), polling duration: January 24 to February 8

This poll might have a natural tilt to Lam, as pro-Beijing camp rallies around Lam, making her an easy and early favourite.

Meanwhile, all 20 delegate votes from Business and Professional Alliance of Hong Kong, the 3rd largest pro-Beijing party (which LegCo President Andrew Leung belongs to), will go to Lam.

[peterthlee]

Current delegate nomination count:
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) 74 EVs
Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP) 14 EVs
John Tsang Chun-wah (I) 11 EVs
Leung Kwok-hung (LSD) 5 EVs
Woo Kwok-hing (I) 1 EV
The count will be constantly updated in following replies as nomination period approaches.

[jaichind]

With the pro-PRC political machine behind Lam I guess there is not much to stop her from winning.  I still stick with my support for Regina Ip based on Chinese nationalist reasons.

[peterthlee]

With the pro-PRC political machine behind Lam I guess there is not much to stop her from winning.  I still stick with my support for Regina Ip based on Chinese nationalist reasons.

Yeah.

John Tsang has become a 'spokesperson' for moderate non-establishments. Earlier, the delegates from higher education sector, which has been dominated by a non-establishment supermajority, had their nominations all gone to him. In the meantime, Carrie Lam already had a large chunk of pro-establishment ballots (above 400) in her bag. Some sectors which are loyal to Beijing even bundled their nominations for Lam, like the NPCSC and CPPCC delegates.

Current delegate nomination count:
Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) 265 EVs
John Tsang Chun-wah (I) 110 EVs
Woo Kwok-hing (I) 74 EVs (benefited from support from the medical and surveying sectors)
Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP) 14 EVs
Leung Kwok-hung (LSD) 5-9 EVs