Hong Kong Chief Executive election, 2017

[jaichind]

In theory I back John Tsang who is the Mitt Romney of the race but the Chinese nationalist in me always want to go with Regina Ip who is the Donald Trump of the race.  In the end wallet will trump heart and I will go with Tsang who is the front runner (in terms of polling anyway.)

[jaichind]

The main problem from the PRC point of view of this election is with so many (now 3 with John Tsang throwing his hat into the race) credible pro-establishment candidates in the race, the pro-Democracy bloc will now have a decisive say in the outcome which is what the PRC would like to avoid.

[jaichind]

Yeah, but the degree of enlargement is under debate. Of course I strongly oppose any secession movement in Tibet, Xinjiang (separatist language East Turkistan) or Manchuria, as well as formal declaration of independence of Taiwan. These are non-negotiable.

Same here.  I am bit more hard-line than that.  I would say non-unification between Taiwan Province and Mainland China beyond a certain date, I would say in 20 years, would be unacceptable.  I am willing to give my home province of Taiwan some time to get with the picture as I also share, to some extent but for different reasons, negativity toward the PRC regime.  But at some stage national unity has to trump that. 

[jaichind]

Uh, I can get countries not wanting parts of themselves to leave, but Beijing has a tendency of conflating autonomist movements with secessionist movements. And they're bizarrely terrified of it. The only region that could plausibly want to leave is Tibet, and Tibet has 6 million people. The rest of China has a billion people and nuclear weapons. And Tibet remains a PR nightmare for the government.

And if the government stopped pillaging their country for any wealth they can extract and then spend on American real estate, they'd have enough economic prowess to pretty much control Taiwan by proxy.

There are a lot of similarities between the Tibet independence/autonomous movements and the various Indian Northeastern insurgency movements (Naga Mizo Manipur etc etc).  The purpose was never independence or genuine autonomy.  The purpose is the extract the maximize the level of central government subsidies for the local elites.  In India the various insurgency movements are well connected to the local collaborationist elites of the Indian administration.  Whenever more subsidies are needed the latent insurgency are ratcheted up which in turn provokes anther series of economic aid from the Indian central government.  A similar dynamic is taking place in Tibet Province over the last 30 years.   The local CCP Tibetan elites are actually well connected, often by marriage of their children, to elites within the Dalai Lama regime in exile in India.  Borrowing from a 1984 quote: Independence/autonomy cannot be won, it is not meant to be won, the conflict is meant to be continuous to keep the gravy train of central government subsidies flowing.   

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- A survey commissioned by Hong Kong Economic Journal shows 48.7% of respondents support Tsang; 39.9% back Carrie Lam, in an assumption that only these two are in the race for the top job, the newspaper says.The survey conducted by the Chinese University of Hong Kong shows 33.5% support Tsang; 30.9% for Lam; 8.1% for Woo Kwok-hing; 7.2% for Jasper Tsang, who is former Legislative Council president and hasn’t announced plans to run; 6.4% for Regina Ip

[jaichind]

With the pro-PRC political machine behind Lam I guess there is not much to stop her from winning.  I still stick with my support for Regina Ip based on Chinese nationalist reasons.

[jaichind]

With the pro-PRC political machine behind Lam I guess there is not much to stop her from winning.  I still stick with my support for Regina Ip based on Chinese nationalist reasons.

The more exciting part of 2017 HK election cycle comes as the by-election of 2-5 LegCo seats. Many HKGolden netizens saw the Kowloon West seat, even in a FPTP system, as a solid pickup for pro-Beijing camp due to fragmentation of the non-establishment (the inclination of not rallying around a mainstream pro-Dem candidate).

In the past, non-establishment candidates trounced pro-Beijing camp easily, from 4-18 points, in LegCo FPTP by-elections. The condition of pro-Beijing camp pickup applies in the possible Hong Kong Island by-election, due to possible rejection of oath by Nathan Law Kwun-chung (D), possibly reinforced by the recruit of strong candidates within pro-Establishments.

If all 6 concerned lawmakers are stripped of their LegCo eligibility, those netizens could see 5 pickups for the pro-Beijing camp. Meanwhile, in the case of FPTP, localists could see New Territories East, a non-establishment stronghold, as a real tossup; non-establishments are on track to get bleached in Kowloon West.

This could be a Mondalesque loss for non-establishments. As a pro-Beijing hardcore, I cannot wait to see that.

Yep.  I am pretty excited about this prospect as well.  It will be interesting to see the level of tactical voting between the Democratic Bloc and Localism Bloc against an Establishment bloc candidate.  I think this round the energy will still be on the Localism Bloc side who will have no incentive to want to work with the Democratic Bloc.  This might not be the case a couple of years from now when the novelty factor  wears off from the Localism Bloc.  On the Establishment side they have to work out which party will nominate their candidate (FTU vs DAB vs NPP).  If they do not then they will not be able to take advantage of this situation. 

[jaichind]

Kowloon West: DAB
New Territories East: FTU
Hong Kong Island: DAB or FTU
The democratic bloc is going to be blanched in Kowloon West.

Ok.  They better get their act together.  Back in Feb 2016 the Establishment bloc blew a by-election victory in New Territories East in my view by having multiple Establishment bloc candidates.

Democratic bloc CP             37.2%
Establishment bloc DAB      34.8%
Localism bloc HKI               15.4%
Establishment bloc PP          7.7%
Establishment bloc TS          4.0%
Democratic bloc DP rebel      0.5%

 

Although one can argue TS can be considered a Democratic Bloc rebel party as well.  One way or another PP running at the same time as DAB ruined the Establishment Bloc chances of taking advantages of the Democratic Bloc-Localism Bloc split.

Also  New Territories East is one of the regions where Localism bloc is fairly weak by looking at the 2016 election results.

New Territories East
                                        2016                         2012
                               Vote          Seats           Vote          Seats
Establishment  Bloc  40.70%         3           42.36%         3          
  Pro-Beijing               5.23%         0             5.26%         0
  Center-Right          29.37%         3           31.81%         3
  Moderates               6.10%          0            5.29%          0

Democratic Bloc       48.35%         5           54.80%         6
   Centrists                 1.39%        0
   Moderates             32.91%        3            39.06%        4
   Radicals                14.05%        2            18.58%         2

Localism Bloc           10.95%        1

Even if the Establishment bloc in  New Territories East manages to stay united unless there is a Localism Bloc surge, which there might very well be, it still might be a uphill climb.  

Like you said, Kowloon West is looking pretty good for Establishment Bloc as long as they stay united.

It is still a bit weird for me as a Far Right KMT supporter to be on the same side as FTU given my memories of the 1980s of FTU as the enemy, in HK at least.  But politics is the part of the possible and there are no permanent friends of enemies.  The Democratic Blocs and Localism Blocs has to be beaten back.

[jaichind]

Why being politically correct and call them the "Establishment" bloc, instead of the Dictatorship bloc?

Well, it is more about calling someone or something what they want to be called.  Even the Democratic Bloc politicians refer to the Establishment Bloc parties as the "Establishment Bloc."  If not why stop at "Dictatorship Bloc"?  Why not "Anti-People Bloc" or just "Bloc of Evil" ?

[jaichind]

After John Tsang, Woo Kwok-hing (I) also secured the essential 156 nomination ballots to formally enter the race. He will submit his nominations in due course.

Seems it goes into a three-way race between Lam, Tsang and Woo...

Some analysts have warned that Tsang and Woo would partition the non-establishment votes and kill each other, while I don't think so...Lam will easily secure >600 votes...

Yeah.  I am for Ip which more reflects my extremist Chinese nationalist views.  But if I sense the Democratic Bloc are voting for Woo to block Lam most likely I will tactically support Lam.  Most likely, like you said, Lam's got this so it does not matter.

[jaichind]

Tsang got more vote then I thought he would.  Lam won as expected of course.