Hong Kong Chief Executive election, 2017

[peterthlee]

Here it begins.
Though this election is not a universal suffrage (or a free election), it is still worth discussing as the handpicked 'winner' could signal a realignment of Beijing insiders' policies on my home region.
The election is constitutionally scheduled on 26 March 2017.

Background information page with opinion polls tracking (from Wikipedia)

Incumbent Leung Chun-ying (I) ruled out re-election on 9 December 2016, leaving the seat open.
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Candidate list (candidates with ✓ have explicitly mentioned their intention to run, with ✓✓ submitted application form, purple colour indicating winner)

Pro-Establishment Camp
1/ Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I), chief secretary for administration 2012-2017 (reversed her previous mind not to run); secretary for development 2007-2012 ✓ 12/1/2017 ✓✓ 28/2/2017
Votes: 777 ☑
2/ John Tsang Chun-wah (I), Financial Secretary 2007-2017 ✓ 18/1/2017 ✓✓ 25/2/2017
Votes: 365
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Pan-democratic Camp and Localist Camp
declined to support any exploring candidates from their own camp
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Other notable Individuals
1/ Woo Kwok-hing (I), retired High Court Judge and former Electoral Commission President ✓ 29/10/2016 ✓✓ 26/2/2017
Votes: 21

[peterthlee]

Bumping for vote maximization.
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Local news: the National People's Congress standing committee is considering a re-interpretation of the Basic Law to strip Youngspiration's Sixtus "Baggio" Leung Chung-hang (MP for New Territories East since 2016) and Yau Wai-ching (MP for Kowloon West since 2016) of their seats in LegCo. Both pronounced "China" as "Shina", once-neutral-turned-derogatory word referring to China by militarists in wartime Japan, with Yau replacing Republic by 're-f**king', during their oath-taking. This has been drawing stern criticisms from both PE Camp and the Non-Establisment Camp. Petition to remove them from their seats broke 1.2M a few days ago. Yau and Leung are deemed 'unqualified' to exercise their duty as MPs.

Chris Ip Ngo-tung (DAB, President of Yau Tsim Mong District Council), Wong Kwok-hing (FTU, MP for Labour Sector 2004-2008, New Territories West 2008-2012 and Hong Kong Island 2012-2016), Frederick Fung (ADPL, MP for Kowloon West 1991-1997, 1998-2012 and DC (Second) 2012-2016), Tam Kwok-kiu and Ho Kai-ming (ADPL, Sham Shui Po DC members) are eyeing for the potential seat currently held by Yau.

Gary Fan Kwok-wai (ND, MP for New Territories East 2012-2016) and Bill Tang Ka-piu (FTU, MP for Labour Sector 2012-2016) are cementing their dreams to re-enter the legislature given that Leung's seat will likely end up being vacant.

I'm going to be bold and say Chris Ip and Bill Tang will make their road to victory, resulting in PE Camp's majority in both FC seats and DE seats, due to public frustration on the duo.

[peterthlee]

Re Crabcake:
Yes, I'm living in Tsuen Wan District (please proceed to see my profile), and I'm currently a first-year medical student from the University of Hong Kong (HKU).
I'm a pan-Chinese nationalist. I'm inclined to support HRC, though pan-Chinese nationalist are usually swayed to Trump's column.

[peterthlee]

John Tsang Chun-wah (I), a serious contender for this race (as viewed by most pundits) and incumbent Financial Secretary, reportedly (allegedly) lobbied the Central Government to allow him to participate. However, his will was 'discouraged', according to Sing Tao Daily.

Meanwhile, Woo Kwok-hing (I), the only exploring/ declared candidate, reiterated that the Youngspiration duo's mischievous act during oath-taking was 'inappropriate' and stressed that the formulation and implementation of Article 23 of the Basic Law was 'imminent' and 'necessary'. However, he had reservations about the interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law, which was a de facto declaration on the illegitimacy of Youngspiration duo's seats by only allowing them to take oath ONCE in the first grand assembly ONLY.

Regarding the by-elections, the PE Camp will probably assign Chris Ip Ngo-tung (DAB, Yau Tsim Mong District Council President) to fill Yau's seat and Wong Kwok-hing (FTU, MP 2004-2016) to fill Leung's seat. Public frustration on the duo blossomed, and the both are expected to win, albeit narrowly. No PE Camp members have won a single-seat by-election since the handover.

Frederick Fung (ADPL, MP 1991-1997, 2000-2016) has been mourning his late mom's sudden death, and ADPL's resources have a risk of depletion. These greatly reduced his chance of a potential candidacy. In the wake of PE Camp's snowballing chance of a stunning win, non-establishment has considered sending wildcards to hope for an upset. Louisa Mak, Miss Hong Kong Pageant 2015, a top-scorer in HKCEE 2009 and the University of Cambridge LLB Graduate (Second Class Honour, Class of 2014) was petitioned to run for Yau's seat. Mak declined subsequently.
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Glad to see that we have a clear plurality winner of the Atlas mock poll: Incumbent chief-executive Leung Chun-ying (I).

[peterthlee]

BREAKING:
Ruling of the High Court conforms to the re-interpretation of the Basic Law Article 104 by the NPCSC, meaning that the duo's seats are declared vacant. The duo do not rule out the possibility of appealing to the Final Court of Appeal (it would be a long shot given the circumstances).
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Update 20:20, 15/11/2016 (HKT): Raymond Wong Yuk-man (I/PPI) played down and even declined his potential candidacy in the by-election of Yau's vacant seat.

[peterthlee]

Jasper Tsang Yok-sing (DAB), former president of the Legislative Council, mentioned that there are 'several' (to be specific, at least 3) possible contenders for the top post in HK among pro-establishmnet/ pro-Beijing hopefuls, and some of them will not seek the Central Government's consent for running.

In the meantime, Incumbent Leung Chun-ying (I) embarked on a string of district-wide consultations with an array of regional figures such as district councillors. The mass media in Hong Kong pointed out that it was a clear signal for Leung to seek re-election in 2017.

John Tsang Chun-wah (I), current Financial Secretary, was reported to run without Beijing's approval. His office played down this 'hoax' immediately.
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In the aftermath of the High Court's ruling, Demosisto secretary-general Joshua Wong visited the Capitol of the US, in a bid to 'spread pro-democracy and self-determination message' around the world. He called on President-elect Donald Trump (R-NY) to 'lodge his concern on human right development in Hong Kong'. Beijing slapped him swiftly through writing a letter to the Wall Street Journal, staunchly arguing that any US officials should not meddle with any internal affairs of China. The President-elect has yet to comment.

He was reported to have an internal meeting with Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) and his fellow Tom Cotton (R-AR). Rubio was reported to encourage 'localism and democracy development in Hong Kong' and will 'advocate it in the Senate', praising Wong 'time is on your side'. During their meeting, the former GOP presidential hopeful, together with Cotton, petitioned to sanction Chinese officials who 'have repressed Hong Kong's freedom'. The Senate has yet to debate on the bill.

Footnote: this comment uses Atlas Multipartisan Colour Code, meaning red for Democrats and Blue for Republicans, instead of the reverse, which is now commonly used worldwide.

[Last modified by peterthlee at 18:12, 17/11/2016 (HKT)]

[peterthlee]

Letter from the Chinese Government to the Editor of WSJ (key points):
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1018496.shtml

Press Release from Rubio's office regarding the bill (retrieved from his official website):
http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ContentRecord_id=3EB7C87F-143D-473D-89A2-32547264EC22

[peterthlee]

Long haven't I updated this post.
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1/ Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP) was speculated to quit the Executive Council and join the ferocious race. She played down this rumour earlier.

2/ HK01, a center-pro-establishment newspaper, once made a groundbreaking statement in their editorial that Leung Chun-ying (I-inc) would be 'discouraged' by the central government to run for re-election. However, this contradicted with many political pundits, which claimed 'the re-interpretation by the NPCSC was a shot in the arm for the incumbent'.

3/ Some 'internal news' mentioned that John Tsang Chun-wah (I), the Financial Secretary, has already formed his election cohort. Tsang did not admit nor dismiss it.

4/ Woo Kwok-hing (I), the only declared contender, launched his facebook page. This move is largely symbolical: his vision for the top office in Hong Kong is real.

5/ Former DAB member Wu Sai-tsuen (I), a perennial candidate, declared his candidacy on 24 Nov 2016. His candidacy has not received much attention than Woo's, as he could not even make it to the electoral college nomination. Notably, he made clear that should he be elected, every citizen would have 10000 HKD surplus (per capita).

As I am heading into examination period in the University of Hong Kong (HKU), the page would not be updated frequently. Folks, I cordially pledge all of you to bump this thread. Though it may not be as 'direct' as Western models, it could provide a periscope into China's domestic and foreign policy. Hong Kong is essentially a condensed model for Chinese politics.

[peterthlee]

Today, Sing Tao Daily again mentioned that John Tsang Chun-wah (I) was discouraged again by Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Minister Wang Guangya in Beijing.

The newspaper's claim was denounced by media guru and former radio anchor Lee Wai-ling (a tilt-non-establishment figure), who said that "such important news would be the headliner instead of appearing in 'political gossip' page".
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The Youngspiration duo's appeal was rejected unanimously by the co-judges in the High Court on 30 Nov. They failed to make their way to the Court of Final Appeal today, meaning that the LegCo could gazette their vacancies.

Propelled by the success, the government would like the court to declare the oath of fellow MP Lau Siu Lai (DG) of Kowloon West invalid. This prompted non-establishment MPs to rally around Lau on the same day, denouncing this move as 'political persecution' to increase the Establishments' chances in the 2017 by-election under a proportional representative system.

[peterthlee]

Re jaichind: John Tsang is just a Donald Tsang redux. Under his reign Hong Kong would flop and be dragged into hell. He would be an utmost failure.
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BREAKING: Leung Chun-ying (I-inc) ruled out re-election.

Beforehand, most have assumed that he would win re-election due to his perceived 'loyalty to Beijing' in registering judicial reviews against 3 more MPs: Leung Kwok-hung (LSD), Edward Yiu (I) and Nathan Law Kwun-chung (D). The trio, with Lau Siu-lai, condemned this as a 'political tactic' to 'increase Leung's chances of winning'.

Meanwhile, John Tsang Chun-wah (I) was warned 'not to make inroad through a red light' but some pundits who are associated with the Central Government Liaison Office. The cohorts stated that 'serious political consequences' would loom on his fate.

In the run-up of Leung's bow-out, Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP) planned to hold a party convention in the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. It was widely anticipated that she will declare her candidacy. However, only a few pro-establishment figures would turn out. Notably, colonial Chief Secretary for Administration David Aker-Jones pledge support to her.

After Leung ruled out re-election, Ip's chances would record a staggering increase.

[peterthlee]

Incumbent chief secretary for administration Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) reversed her previous mind not to run. She was widely seen as the 'ultimate destiny' after her orating, and she was perceived as the plan B ('Manuel Valls') of Leung Chun-ying ('Francois Hollande').

[peterthlee]

John Tsang Chun-wah (I) today tendered his resignation as Financial Secretary. However, in a surprise move, he did not mention anything about participating in the race when he held a press conference to confirm his will.

In the meantime, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) was speculated to make her turn on Dec 19 (HKT).

The non-establishments made much more inroads in the Electoral College yesterday. They captured a total of 326 seats, much higher than around 200 in 2011. Specifically, they wiped their opponents out in social welfare, law, medicine and even incumbent Leung Chun-ying's bastion of architecture and surveying sectors. Their larger voice could make them ascend to the position of being a kingmaker, which could force all candidates to conform to some of their grievances.

In the law sectors, the pan-democratic team was all elected. Ironically, former Civic Party MP for New Territories East 2004-2015 and Senior Counsel Ronny Tong Ka-wah failed to secure a seat.

[peterthlee]

The main problem from the PRC point of view of this election is with so many (now 3 with John Tsang throwing his hat into the race) credible pro-establishment candidates in the race, the pro-Democracy bloc will now have a decisive say in the outcome which is what the PRC would like to avoid.

The Central Government has not approved Tsang's request of resignation. It is worthwhile to note that Henry Tang's request of his resignation from the government was approved 2 days after the submission. Now it is 3 days away from the announcement. He might fail miserably.
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Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (NPP) announced her candidacy. Simultaneously, she tendered her resignation from the Executive Council, but remained as a MP.

Woo Kwok-hing (I) also unveiled his policy manifesto the same day. He pointed out that it might take 15 years to acheive universal suffrage, and he suggested a phased approach of increasing the nomination college to all 3 million registered voters. Still, he prioritized the installation of the Article 23 of the Basic Law, which is still a controversial subject in the metropolis.

[peterthlee]

BREAKING:
After a long period of silent breezes, coupled with recent waves of establishing a Forbidden City Palace Museum (where antiquity from the Forbidden City will be displayed) in the West Kowloon Cultral District, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) today (in accordance with GMT+8, Hong Kong Standard time) tendered her resignation as Chief Secretary of Administration.

She spelt out her mind in a closed seminar earlier today hosted in the Science Park. In her final oration as CS, the 36-year-long civil servant was so adamant that she 'would enter the CE race upon the approval of her resignation by Beijing'.
 
Singtao Daily, a prominent pro-establishment newspaper, claimed that Lam was the only candidate favoured by Beijing and would obtain nomination ballots 'way higher than threshold' after the nomination period starts.

Meanwhile, Sing Pao, an anti-CY Leung pro-Beijing newspaper, which has been under the spotlight for 'accurately projecting Leung's sidestepping', lambasted Lam for 'failing to acknowledge people's will for public consultation on the West Kowloon Cultural District Project', but still noted that 'Beijing was still open to candidates among the pro-establishment camp and would not bar Lam from running'.

[peterthlee]

As most of the potential candidates surfaced, I would lock the first round of voting permanently till further notice.
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Update 08:30, 13/1/2017 HKT: a second round run-off voting will be run, if possible, between the two candidates who have highest odds to win according to consensus pundits in Hong Kong (at this moment it will be between Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) and John Tsang Chun-wah (I)).

[peterthlee]

Beijing approved Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) and John Tsang Chun-wah (I)'s resignation at 14:00 HKT, 16/1/2017.
In light of this, Lam announced her bid at 17:00 HKT at Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

[peterthlee]

Any left wingers and/or socialists in the pro-Beijing camp?

At this stage, no.
TBH, I'm actually a hardcore pro-Beijing socialist advocate, and I would strongly oppose a John Tsang candidacy - he is a old financial guard who has a big mouth, more said than done. No tax rebates, bureaucracy ensues, prompting himself to be a popular contender...heck, no more electoral tactics please.
My wordings might be harsh, and John Tsang somewhat kindly receives public grievances - however, I need to spell out the truth. He is a good listener, but a horrible doer.

[peterthlee]

Pro-Beijing progressives, like FTU, don't have enough bench to take the challenge.

Their spiritual leader, Wong Kwok-hing, was upset in the recent LegCo election (though he has a very decent shot in the by-election in New Territories East, due to partitioning of the non-establishments) by only fractional percentages...and...he's now 67.

Others, like Wong Kwok-kin (MP for Kowloon East since 2008) or Alice Mak (MP for New Territories West since 2012) either lack administrative experience or too old to contend the election.
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For Lord Halifax, I respect your opinion on the soverignty of Tibet, but I could not agree with it. A slightly enlarged autonomy in the region would soothe the resentment of ethnic Tibetans, for the record.

[peterthlee]

For Lord Halifax, I respect your opinion on the soverignty of Tibet, but I could not agree with it. A slightly enlarged autonomy in the region would soothe the resentment of ethnic Tibetans, for the record.

IIRC, that is the Dalai Lama's current stance. The problem is that Beijing is not willing to agree to slightly enlarged autonomy. Which is pretty silly since for all intents and purposes, China is already intensely decentralized.

Yeah, but the degree of enlargement is under debate. Of course I strongly oppose any secession movement in Tibet, Xinjiang (separatist language East Turkistan) or Manchuria, as well as formal declaration of independence of Taiwan. These are non-negotiable.

Secessionist language in Hong Kong is now too toxic and becomes a political taboo. Even the State Department of US found no room to tolerate it.

https://www.facebook.com/standnewshk/posts/1128761200542832

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From this perspective, the kingmakers in Beijing could not allow John Tsang to be our next CE. His stance is too lenient on that.

[peterthlee]

Hey folks, we ought to be back on the right track - discussing the election itself.

Today, a columnist in Ming Pao claimed that the pro-Beijing electorates must congregate in solidarity with Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I), and the order is ‘so strong to be resisted’.

Synchronically, Henry Tang (I), failed 2012 CE candidate and sitting CPPCC standing committee member, praised Lam as a ‘strong leader’.

[peterthlee]

John Tsang Chun-wah (I), after days of wrangling, decided to enter the rate at 15:30, 18/1/2017 HKT. However, various sources indicated that he was way short of the 150 nomination ballots, and he needs to court the pan-democrats.

[peterthlee]

After the entrance of John Tsang Chun-wah (I), the candidates are courting the electorates from dawn till dusk to increase their odds of winning.

For Tsang, he visited the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong. Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) followed suit. The bet odds for Lam has skyrocketed over recent days, but she recently embarrassed herself:

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Woo Kwok-hing (I), the only nonpartisan candidate, criticized Lam's comments as 'unjust' to others. Neodemocrats, a local pan-democratic group, took to the Independent Committee Against Corruption of Hong Kong (Hong Kong's graftbuster) to lodge a complaint.

In spite of all these, Lam has at least 27 nomination ballots in her bag, after a meeting with Heung Yee Kuk (literally Rural Committee) President Kenneth Lau Yip-keung (I), heir to 'king of New Territories' Lau Wong-fat.

Meanwhile, Lam has encountered 'service difficulties' in her temporary residence - failing to find toilet paper in her apartment. This made headlines in BBC News and Daily Mail.

[peterthlee]

There's something rather ironic about a party called "Youngspiration" being led by someone named Sixtus.

I know very little about any of this, but Regina Ip seems like she'd be the sort of pro-Beijing hardliner that would inflame tensions.

Yea, they are ultra-massive HP when they altered their oaths of office with swear words such as Shina, which could get a bunch of Battle of Hong Kong comrades frenzy. Ultimately, they have to be removed from office by an injunction preceded by NPCSC interpretation of Article 104 of the Basic Law.

From this, Regina Ip (NPP) is certainly not the best choice. John Tsang Chun-wah (I) could be a hardliner on Hong Kong Independence, but the same poll found by jaichind exemplified:

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This could be a nail in the coffin for Tsang. In light of this, the powerhouses of Tsang, those commerce chambers, voiced unanimous support for Lam. Even Tsang's former colleague and failed 2012 CE candidate, Henry Tang (I), has secretly been with Lam, deduced by his public appearances.

[peterthlee]

Yesterday, Agricultural and Fisheries electorate, which bears 60 ballots, had respective meetings with Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (I) and Regina Ip (NPP). They emphasized that they will nominate a single candidate as a group.

It is widely anticipated that they will unequivocally nominate Lam in due course.

Despite poor public relation strategies, a poll by Hong Kong Economic Journal (which was quoted by jaichind earlier), found the margin between Tsang and Lam be Tsang +2.4 percent. This was the closest margin so far, and Tsang's initial comfortable lead was narrowed by 6.1 percentage points. Moreover, 63.5% of interviewees though that Lam will win outright.

[peterthlee]

Newest betting data from a Taiwanese website:
http://app.xsmart4.com/eventsPage?id=99b9df31-5094-4ff3-aa98-c34d56bee3ef&c=t
Lam widened her lead, to nearly 8 percentage points, a little bit.