Emerson: FL HRC+1, OH Tie, NV HRC +2, NC HRC +3, WI HRC +6
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  Emerson: FL HRC+1, OH Tie, NV HRC +2, NC HRC +3, WI HRC +6
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Author Topic: Emerson: FL HRC+1, OH Tie, NV HRC +2, NC HRC +3, WI HRC +6  (Read 3723 times)
Fargobison
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« on: October 29, 2016, 03:11:59 PM »

Florida
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%

Ohio
Clinton 45%
Trump 45%
Johnson 6%

Nevada
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 3%

North Carolina
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%

Wisconsin
Clinton 48%
Trump 42%
Johnson 9%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 03:12:20 PM »

Lights out, Donny.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2016, 03:12:51 PM »

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2016, 03:12:57 PM »

Considering this is Emerson trash, good numbers for Clinton.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2016, 03:13:30 PM »

No.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2016, 03:13:46 PM »

By a landline only pollster?! These are fantastic numbers for HRC.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2016, 03:14:00 PM »

Solid numbers for Clinton!

Keep it up!
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2016, 03:14:26 PM »


It literally absolutely factually doesn't.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2016, 03:15:20 PM »

And just checking, the link confirms that they're still using IVR to landlines only.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2016, 03:16:42 PM »

Emerson LOL
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2016, 03:18:04 PM »

This is Emerson so these are very good polls for her. The Ohio tie is the best of the bunch
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2016, 03:18:41 PM »


or that a pollster with a historic right-lean and landline only polling shows Clinton ahead in many swing states.

you know, take your pick.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2016, 03:23:53 PM »

For comparison, their Senate results are: Rubio+2, Portman+14, Heck+4, Burr+4, Feingold+5

So Clinton running ahead of every Dem. Senate candidate in their poll.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2016, 03:24:25 PM »

For comparison, their Senate results are: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14

So Clinton running ahead of every Dem. Senate candidate in their poll.

Rubio seems to be in trouble these last few weeks.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2016, 03:25:18 PM »

These are actually great for Hillary coming from Emerson, but they were conducted pre-emails.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2016, 03:45:21 PM »

These are actually great for Hillary coming from Emerson, but they were conducted pre-emails.

What emails? None of the emails were from Clinton. Move on.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2016, 03:55:55 PM »

These are actually great for Hillary coming from Emerson, but they were conducted pre-emails.

What emails? None of the emails were from Clinton. Move on.

I don't know...maybe the ones the media has been spamming us about yesterday and today? You're preaching to the choir. The people who decide elections don't care about the nitty gritty. You'll see when the post email polls drop.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2016, 04:12:21 PM »

Well unfortunately for the haters a ton of the early vote is in which renders Comey's desperate Hail Mary useless. Plus, Trump is psychotic and that makes voters staying home or flipping a lot less likely.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2016, 04:20:41 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 04:22:31 PM by Ozymandias »

Here are the breakdowns for the early voters in each of these four pols (details starting here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249803.msg5350583#msg5350583)

FL: Clinton - 57, Trump - 42, Johnson - 0.4, Stein - 0.4 (based on 257 of 500 LV = 51%)

NC: Clinton - 59, Trump - 37, Johnson - 0.4 (based on 209 of 650 LV = 32%)

NV: Clinton - 49, Trump - 32, Johnson - 2.5 (based on 237 of 550 LV = 43%)

OH: Clinton - 59, Trump - 35, Johnson - 0, Stein - 0 (based on 223 of 800 LV = 28%)

(Note Stein not on ballot in NC or NV)
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2016, 04:26:07 PM »


or that a pollster with a historic right-lean and landline only polling shows Clinton ahead in many swing states.

you know, take your pick.

Yeah---- I'm curious about percentage of landline only versus cell phone only by state, demographics, and age, since I suspect certain states like OH might have a higher population of landline-only residents versus states with large numbers of Millennials and less frequent voters.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2016, 04:27:07 PM »

NC drifting left of NV? Fantastic!
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2016, 04:37:48 PM »


I was reading through the 2012 early vote thread on this forum and the percentage % is similar to 2012 for the early vote.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2016, 04:38:41 PM »

This is Emerson so these are very good polls for her. The Ohio tie is the best of the bunch
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2016, 04:52:10 PM »

Here are the breakdowns for the early voters in each of these four pols (details starting here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249803.msg5350583#msg5350583)

FL: Clinton - 57, Trump - 42, Johnson - 0.4, Stein - 0.4 (based on 257 of 500 LV = 51%)

NC: Clinton - 59, Trump - 37, Johnson - 0.4 (based on 209 of 650 LV = 32%)

NV: Clinton - 49, Trump - 32, Johnson - 2.5 (based on 237 of 550 LV = 43%)

OH: Clinton - 59, Trump - 35, Johnson - 0, Stein - 0 (based on 223 of 800 LV = 28%)

(Note Stein not on ballot in NC or NV)

Even more proof that at the end of the day the third party vote will be almost negligible.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2016, 04:55:43 PM »


or that a pollster with a historic right-lean and landline only polling shows Clinton ahead in many swing states.

you know, take your pick.

Yeah---- I'm curious about percentage of landline only versus cell phone only by state, demographics, and age, since I suspect certain states like OH might have a higher population of landline-only residents versus states with large numbers of Millennials and less frequent voters.

The CDC tracks this information.  There's a good demographic breakdown from 2015 at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/wireless201512.pdf.  The latest state-by-state data I can find is a bit dated (2011-2012) at http://www.cdc.gov/nchS/data/nhsr/nhsr070.pdf.  Enjoy. Smiley
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