What will be the November Surprise?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

There has to be video, its the only thing that can really stick. Even if you get them to read an article, they will just cry "biased media".

[HillOfANight]

Those tapes had a huge effect. In Marquette's Wisconsin polling earlier in October, Trump was leading, then down double digits after the news hit, same with Monmouth's Indiana poll.

[Virginiá]

According to @LizMair, 1 story will not be coming out (due to lack of $ to cover legal fees for violating NDAs).

That just can't be true. There are enough big donors to raise billions of dollars for legal fees if necessary.

And if it was big and or necessary enough, someone would find a way to do it regardless. It wasn't ever there.

You guys are probably right, but on the other hand, how big are the penalties? If we're talking about millions, then the money might actually not be there if prospective donors do not believe the story is worth it. I'm sure the money would absolutely be there if we were talking about another video/audio on the level of Access Hollywood, but that's probably not how damaging the story is, if it ever existed.

[Speed of Sound]

I did a google search, Trump oppo, past 24 hours, and finally found the goods I think?
https://twitter.com/TrueFactsStated/with_replies
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512578183

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 50m50 minutes ago South Carolina, USA
3. The first bombshell is that US and British Intel have a video of Trump with two prostitutes.

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 48m48 minutes ago South Carolina, USA
4. The second allegation is that Trump has paid for up to a dozen abortions for various women.

This may be the claim, but it's all blah blah blah right now. Articles on this stuff are gonna mean nothing and I'll give anyone 10-1 odds that nothing more than an article is coming tomorrow (or, a "bombshell" that isn't one at all).

[Crumpets]

I did a google search, Trump oppo, past 24 hours, and finally found the goods I think?
https://twitter.com/TrueFactsStated/with_replies
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512578183

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 50m50 minutes ago South Carolina, USA
3. The first bombshell is that US and British Intel have a video of Trump with two prostitutes.

Claude Taylor ‏@TrueFactsStated 48m48 minutes ago South Carolina, USA
4. The second allegation is that Trump has paid for up to a dozen abortions for various women.

Holy sh**t......

I've kind of been hoping the big story isn't something to do with abortion, since that would be terrible to put those women into the spot like that.

[Speed of Sound]

According to @LizMair, 1 story will not be coming out (due to lack of $ to cover legal fees for violating NDAs).

That just can't be true. There are enough big donors to raise billions of dollars for legal fees if necessary.

And if it was big and or necessary enough, someone would find a way to do it regardless. It wasn't ever there.

You guys are probably right, but on the other hand, how big are the penalties? If we're talking about millions, then the money might actually not be there if prospective donors do not believe the story is worth it. I'm sure the money would absolutely be there if we were talking about another video/audio on the level of Access Hollywood, but that's probably not at all the case.

Well, you're basically agreeing with me. "If it was big and or necessary enough, someone would find a way". If people arent willing to pay, it's either not big enough, not necessary, or both.

[Figueira]

No one will care about the prostitute video who wasn't moved by Pussy/Assault gate. Unless there is a tape of the abortion stuff it will have no effect.

Well, a lot of people who were moved by Assaultgate have since moved back. Bringing Trump's awfulness back into the headlines might swing some people over again.

[Virginiá]

Well, you're basically agreeing with me. "If it was big and or necessary enough, someone would find a way". If people arent willing to pay, it's either not big enough, not necessary, or both.

Oh yeah, lol. I was thinking about your last words ("it wasn't ever there"), unless you meant there was a story but it was never big (league).

[Speed of Sound]

Well, you're basically agreeing with me. "If it was big and or necessary enough, someone would find a way". If people arent willing to pay, it's either not big enough, not necessary, or both.

Oh yeah, lol. I was thinking about your last words ("it wasn't ever there"), unless you meant there was a story but it was never big (league).

Ah, yeah, I guess my biggest qualm is with her claim that it's big and just can't be paid off. That's just 100% impossible as far as I'm concerned. Whether it's small or non existent I can't tell, but it isn't big.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wait, you really believe in video with hookers?

Lol, ok!

[Virginiá]

Ah, yeah, I guess my biggest qualm is with her claim that it's big and just can't be paid off. That's just 100% impossible as far as I'm concerned. Whether it's small or non existent I can't tell, but it isn't big.

Indeedy. I'm sure there are a lot of rich people right now who would love to drive down Trump's margins for those sweet, sweet downballot just-desserts.

Maybe she got a heads-up, and it never came, and she found herself having to make up some reason as to why. I'd like to believe she was just impulsive than a straight up liar. I don't see much benefit in the latter.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

According to @LizMair, 1 story will not be coming out (due to lack of $ to cover legal fees for violating NDAs).

That just can't be true. There are enough big donors to raise billions of dollars for legal fees if necessary.

And if it was big and or necessary enough, someone would find a way to do it regardless. It wasn't ever there.

The biggest lesson I've learned in 2016 is that anyone who claims to have anything (Stone, Assange, Rick Wilson, Liz Mair, etc) is basically feeding you a big helping of chickenshit salad. I learned that first hand when I thought I was extremely close to getting some contacts in Jeb! world to look into the Rubio arrest, but when I found out that there was no way to figure out who the arresting officer was, none the less if he was still active in the police/pro-Rubio or not/alive at all basically made the whole effort moot.

I wish I didn't throw out my spider-chart thingy, I had a pretty coherent narrative that only needed one witness to confirm, and once I lost that, I basically said "eff it, maybe he really was just smoking weed in a seedy park." These people don't know how to do that, because they basically thrive on the attention they get from the Twitterverse.

(BTW, I'm still not totally discounting Wikileaks dumping something on Clinton, but if they had it, they'd have dropped it by now.)

[longtimelurker]

There is no story.  Period.  "Whitey Tape" redux, that's all.

[LimoLiberal]

If nothing drops tomorrow, we can safely assume that its not coming out before election day.

[Gabagool102]

If nothing drops tomorrow, we can safely assume that its not coming out before election day.

this

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If nothing drops tomorrow, we can safely assume that its not coming out before election day.

this

Even if it (or anything on Trump or anyone else period) drops tomorrow, at this point the election is in free-fall. I don't think there is anyway to effectively measure what is going on, much less introduce more elements in the conversation. If Wikileaks still has something, it is basically useless at this point. It has probably been useless since Monday.

[longtimelurker]

Here's Kurt Eichenwald's "big story" on Trump!  The cover story of the new issue!


http://www.newsweek.com/2016/11/11/issue.html

Big fat hairy deal.  Won't change a vote.

[rafta_rafta]

The biggest lesson I've learned in 2016 is that anyone who claims to have anything (Stone, Assange, Rick Wilson, Liz Mair, etc) is basically feeding you a big helping of chickenshit salad.

[Fusionmunster]

Here's Kurt Eichenwald's "big story" on Trump!  The cover story of the new issue!


http://www.newsweek.com/2016/11/11/issue.html

Big fat hairy deal.  Won't change a vote.

We knew that, so I doubt that's what the Oppo drop is. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Here's Kurt Eichenwald's "big story" on Trump!  The cover story of the new issue!


http://www.newsweek.com/2016/11/11/issue.html

Big fat hairy deal.  Won't change a vote.

That's a story from a few days ago.

[Fusionmunster]

Here's Kurt Eichenwald's "big story" on Trump!  The cover story of the new issue!


http://www.newsweek.com/2016/11/11/issue.html

Big fat hairy deal.  Won't change a vote.

That's a story from a few days ago.

Yeah, going to the article on the website, it says it was posted on the 31st.

[longtimelurker]

Oops.  My bad.  I thought that since the issue is dated November 11th, that it had to be a new article.

[Crumpets]

Rachel Maddow is breaking the Newsweek story for tomorrow. They don't have the entire article, but according to her, the story will be on Trump's relationship with Putin.

[ApatheticAustrian]

too wishy-washy, if they don't have got some new proof.

[Crumpets]

- Russians thought Trump would have to drop out after Khan controversy.
- As a result, they temporarily stopped their efforts to leak hacked documents to the US.
- Western European governments have been collecting intelligence on Trump.

None of it really seems like a bombshell.