I think McMullin actually has the ground game advantage here because of the Church. Pretty confident he will pull it out. Nothing the Trump campaign is doing is what they need to right this ship.
Trump's ground game is pitiful if it even exists. Looking at his favorability numbers in Utah, voters there aren't exactly enthusiastic about voting for him. McMullin's voters seem rather excited. Clinton might outperform by a percent or two, but I'm still thinking that McMullin can narrowly pull it off.
As Vosem mentioned, Trump's "coffee shop" quote won't endear him to Mormons.
