PREDICT: NJ-05 Garrett (R) vs. Gottheimer (D)

[Progressive]

My prediction: Gottheimer (D) 52% - Garrett (R) 48%

[Mr.Phips]

For some reason I still feel that Garrett narrowly pulls this out as does Issa in California.

[progressive85]

Josh Gottheimer i hope

[The Arizonan]

I don't know much about Josh Gottheimer other than the fact that he worked for Bill Clinton.

Subconsciously, I'm rooting for him, but Scott Garrett is probably going to win in the end because he's the incumbent and he doesn't have enough baggage.

[Young Conservative]

For some reason I still feel that Garrett narrowly pulls this out as does Issa in California.

Me too, although I'm more confident about Issa.

[Kingpoleon]

Scott Garrett: 50%
Josh Gottheimer: 47%

[KingSweden]

I'm skeptical Garrett loses

[The Arizonan]

I'm skeptical Garrett loses

I know. Scott Garrett is going to float through the race thanks to his incumbency and being in an R+4 district, but it won't be as easy the last time around.

By the way, has anyone found any good polls on the Mike Coffman versus Morgan Carroll race?

[mds32]

I think the D's will take this seat for a 1-term rental. The NJGOP will then have a race to focus on in the 2018 elections.

[Torie]

If Garrett holds this seat, that suggests to me the the Dem gain in the House will be in the single digits, which now appears to be about where it's at.

[Nyvin]

It's an R+4 district and 89% non-hispanic white, there's more favorable targets for Dems than NJ-5.

[Torie]

It's an R+4 district and 89% non-hispanic white, there's more favorable targets for Dems than NJ-5.

Yeah, but Garrett is a sub par incumbent who is not a very good fit for the district, with its fairly big chunk of upscale zip codes.

[Kingpoleon]

It's an R+4 district and 89% non-hispanic white, there's more favorable targets for Dems than NJ-5.

Yeah, but Garrett is a sub par incumbent who is not a very good fit for the district, with its fairly big chunk of upscale zip codes.

At best he's connected to the Christopher Smith/RFayette moderate/populist economic types. If he can play that up and adopt the ideology of Smith and Walter Jones, he should be safe until 2022.

[freepcrusher]

It's an R+4 district and 89% non-hispanic white, there's more favorable targets for Dems than NJ-5.

Yeah, but Garrett is a sub par incumbent who is not a very good fit for the district, with its fairly big chunk of upscale zip codes.

At best he's connected to the Christopher Smith/RFayette moderate/populist economic types. If he can play that up and adopt the ideology of Smith and Walter Jones, he should be safe until 2022.

Garrett is a massive POS - a combo of Viguerie/Weyrich type views and pathological lying. I'd compare it to Crane vs Bean in 04.

[Fusionmunster]

Gotthimer has got to be outspending Garrett by the truckloads. Hopefully thats enough to unseat him.
I see multiple anti Garrett commercials daily, and theres about 5 or 6 billboards on route 17 for Gottheimer. They're stressing Garrets anti Sandy funding vote, support for the confederate flag, his no vote for helping first responders and his anti gay views. As for pro Garrett stuff, lets just say for a man whose been in office as long as he has, you'd think he'd be putting up more of a fight.

[SATW]

Rep. Garrett is one of America's greatest congress members. I believe NJ-05 will realize this and re-elect him.

[Torie]

Rep. Garrett is one of America's greatest congress members. I believe NJ-05 will realize this and re-elect him.

Really?  The poor guy has issues, and needs therapy methinks. Leaving office will give him time to do that. Where's your compassion?

[SATW]

Rep. Garrett is one of America's greatest congress members. I believe NJ-05 will realize this and re-elect him.

Really?  The poor guy has issues, and needs therapy methinks. Leaving office will give him time to do that. Where's your compassion?

Oh, I was partly trolling in my post. I should've made it more clear. lol.

I like Garrett a lot on foreign policy (see Israel), but his LGBT views are horrendous and I realize he put himself in a bad situation. I hope he wins, but if he doesn't...well, no one to blame but himself.