Lebanon finally has a president!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.thenational.scot/world/lebanon-election-of-new-president-ends-political-stalemate-but-a-rift-with-hezbollah-may-swiftly-follow.24223

After a long, long impasse between the Saudi backed people and the Iranian backed crew, the latter seem to have got their guy (following a surprise support by Hariri's son). New guy is Christian as is convention in Lebanon.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

http://www.thenational.scot/world/lebanon-election-of-new-president-ends-political-stalemate-but-a-rift-with-hezbollah-may-swiftly-follow.24223

After a long, long impasse between the Saudi backed people and the Iranian backed crew, the latter seem to have got their guy (following a surprise support by Hariri's son). New guy is Christian as is convention in Lebanon.

Maronite, to be exact.

Just as it's per the convention that Prime Minister is always Sunni, Speaker of the Parliament Shi'ite,  Deputy PM Greek Orthodox Christian, Chief of General Staff Maronite and Chief of Army Staff Druze.

It's interesting Parliament members are always in a ratio of 6:5 in favour of Christians to Muslims, even though Christians had long ceased to be a majority (the legal fiction is being sustained due to last census taking place in... 1930 or something.)

I'm always reminded of Cyprus before the Turkish invasion, where President had to be Greek, while Vice President had to be Turkish.

[Famous Mortimer]

Michel Aoun, formerly an anti-Syrian general (and head of an unrecognized pro-Iraqi government during the final days of the Civil War) and now leader of the PRO-Syrian forces since returning from exile after the Syrian withdraw. I used to think him an opportunist (and he might still be) but now I see there's the possibility that he's actually a political genius. Fighting the Syrians made since from a Christian perspective in the 1990s. Now though, it's even more obvious that being aligned with Syria is what's best for Christians. Aoun was always the leading candidate. Anti-Syrian forces had wanted anyone else but couldn't find any other Christian politician (except Sethrida Geagea, who is totally unacceptable to Muslims) so they just blocked him for 2 years. Don't know why they finally gave up and decided to let him have it.

[palandio]

It's interesting Parliament members are always in a ratio of 6:5 in favour of Christians to Muslims, even though Christians had long ceased to be a majority (the legal fiction is being sustained due to last census taking place in... 1930 or something.)

Since the 1989 Taef agreement the ratio is 1:1 (64 Christians, 64 Muslims).

Also the President's powers were restrained in favor of the PM in 1989.

Michel Aoun, formerly an anti-Syrian general (and head of an unrecognized pro-Iraqi government during the final days of the Civil War) and now leader of the PRO-Syrian forces since returning from exile after the Syrian withdraw. I used to think him an opportunist (and he might still be) but now I see there's the possibility that he's actually a political genius. Fighting the Syrians made since from a Christian perspective in the 1990s. Now though, it's even more obvious that being aligned with Syria is what's best for Christians. Aoun was always the leading candidate. Anti-Syrian forces had wanted anyone else but couldn't find any other Christian politician (except Sethrida Geagea, who is totally unacceptable to Muslims) so they just blocked him for 2 years. Don't know why they finally gave up and decided to let him have it.

The reasons of the reapproachment between Geagea and Aoun remain somehow oblique to an outsider like me. But Lebanese politics is a bit like Game of Thrones...

The relationship between Hariri and the Saudis is not as good as it used to be. Also keep in mind the before giving in to Aoun, Hariri had for some time supported the rather pro-Syrian Frangieh.

[palandio]

Michel Aoun, formerly an anti-Syrian general (and head of an unrecognized pro-Iraqi government during the final days of the Civil War) and now leader of the PRO-Syrian forces since returning from exile after the Syrian withdraw. I used to think him an opportunist (and he might still be) but now I see there's the possibility that he's actually a political genius. Fighting the Syrians made since from a Christian perspective in the 1990s. Now though, it's even more obvious that being aligned with Syria is what's best for Christians. [...]

Apparently about half of Lebanon's Maronites see things similarly to him, so he really represents a constituency.

In other news Saad Hariri has now been entrusted by Aoun with forming the new government and 110 MPs are supporting Hariri (everyone except Hezbollah, SSNP and Baath), so there seems to be a new political convergence.

[Famous Mortimer]

Amal is supporting Harriri?

[palandio]

Yes, quoting from this article: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37860414

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Even Hezbollah is now calling for a "national unity government".

[Simfan34]

Now, if they just bring back the diaspora... while Christians are a minority in the country, the overseas Lebanese population (which is several times larger), is in the area of 80% Christian, mostly Maronite. Long-term peace would encourage their return, which I have to imagine has entered at least a few people's political calculations at some point.