Texas, CBS 11 Dallas and Dixie Strategies: Trump +12

[OneJ]

But our fellow Hillary backing dreamers told me TX is competttututtve ...

Keep telling yourself that fellow Trump supporter.

[Kalimantan]

But our fellow Hillary backing dreamers told me TX is competttututtve ...

You were kinda one of the reasons I stuck around this site a decade ago, because I'd finally found a site where people were seriously discussing elections and polling and partisan claptrap was minimal. What has happened man....?

[IceSpear]

But our fellow Hillary backing dreamers told me TX is competttututtve ...

You were kinda one of the reasons I stuck around this site a decade ago, because I'd finally found a site where people were seriously discussing elections and polling and partisan claptrap was minimal. What has happened man....?

He suffers from a major case of Hillary derangement syndrome which has poisoned his mind. I've heard it's terminal.

[NOVA Green]

Not buying what I'm seeing here from a C+ pollster in one of the most difficult states to poll.

Clinton's floor is likely 43/44 and ceiling likely 46/47 here, based upon the data we have seen in terms of EV turnout levels in the largest 15 counties, Texas Latino's swinging hard towards the Democratic Party, not to mention some softening in the traditionally Republican Anglo suburban base of the large Metro areas.

I still have Texas as a Lean Trump but see it as more of a mid single-digit margin, unless we get some more credible polling out of the great Lone Star state to indicate otherwise....

[QE]

Texas was never in true danger for Trump. Maybe we can take a shot at it in 2020 or 2024. I also wonder if the tightening of the national polls has to do with Trump shoring up his base in red states. His sizable leads here and in Indiana and Missouri may seem to indicate that. To be sure, I would certainly prefer that versus sizable movement(s) in the swing states. 

[ProudModerate2]

+12 is probably on the high-end as a trump lead.
But trump will win it in the mid to high single digits.

[EpicHistory]

i don't think trump is going to be higher than +6.

Texas? After the FBI revelations? Keep dreaming friend.

[NOVA Green]

i don't think trump is going to be higher than +6.

Texas? After the FBI revelations? Keep dreaming friend.

Epic... (long sigh)

The deal with Texas is that it has long been one of the worst states in our great nation in terms of voter turnout.

The 2016 Presidential Election has created an unprecedented level of new voter registration and turnout levels, especially among working-class Latinos, that in Texas typically vote about 80-20 Democrat in Presidential Elections.

Meanwhile Middle and Upper-Class Latinos, that typically vote more like 55-45 at the Presidential level, and frequently Republican in Statewide and local elections, are likely breaking heavily Democratic
(Just like we saw in California in the Mid 1990s after Prop 189).

Latinos in Texas are less focused on the Clinton "email scandals" than rejecting Trump as a Republican candidate who peddles in negative stereotypes of Latino-Americans, and Mexican-Americans in particular, who are the overwhelming majority of Texas Latinos.

Now, you could make a decent argument that these "revelations" might have a bit of an impact in the Anglo communities in the suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, but fundamentally Republicans have basically maxed out the Anglo vote in Texas to a point where there is nowhere to go but up for Democrats.

The question has never really been "Will Clinton win Texas" but rather "How close will it be" and yes it looks like some ancestral Republicans are coming home in Texas, but this state will likely be much closer than most observers expected on November 8th, as I predicted quite a few months back.

[Lachi]

C+ rating with only 3 polls recorded by 538.
I'll take this with a massive amount of salt.

[Speed of Sound]

C+ rating with only 3 polls recorded by 538.
I'll take this with a massive amount of salt.

We really haven't had many "good" polls out of TX at all, though. Most of the ones hinting at a close race have a similar rating. It didn't swing this fast, but it makes sense that it might have swung a few through R consolidation.

[Ebsy]

lol Atlas believing a Dixie Strategies poll.

[Badger]

Pretty heavy swing from their previous poll, mostly in R's coming home. It's probably split the difference between this and their last poll.

But our fellow Hillary backing dreamers told me TX is competttututtve ...

You've really become a pretty unfortunate mess. Sorry about whatever happened, man. :/

Nothing happened really.

True. He's always been creepy towards women of all stripes.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Trump-mentum everywhere it seems...

[Lachi]

Trump-mentum everywhere it seems...

It's Dixie Strategies. Take their polls with copious amounts of salt.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Dixie Strategies has been pretty in-step with other polls this year, anyone who thought TX would be in the too close to call column the whole night was kidding themselves, especially with Trump surging in other red states.