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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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Author Topic: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!  (Read 1854 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 01, 2016, 05:39:47 pm »
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https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view

Indiana: 50% Young (R), 46% Bayh (D)
Florida: 49% Rubio (R), 47% Murphy (D)
Arizona: 49% McCain (R), 46% Kirkpatrick (D)
Ohio: 55% Portman (R), 40% Strickland (D)
Iowa: 56% Grassley (R), 41% Judge (D)


Missouri: 51% Kander (D), 45% Blunt (R)
Illinois: 57% Duckworth (D), 38% Kirk (R)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 38% Ayotte (R)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 43% Burr (R)
Pennsylvania: 49% McGinty (D), 46% Toomey (R)
Colorado: 48% Bennet (D), 46% Glenn (R)


Wisconsin: 49% Johnson (R), 49% Feingold (D)
Nevada: 47% Heck (R), 47% Masto (D)
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 03:06:57 pm by TN Volunteer »Logged

Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

Jimmie
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 05:41:11 pm »
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Oh no! Kander is only 6 points ahead of blunt! Lets all freak out!

Oh No! Bayh is 4 points being Young in a mass poll! Let's panaic!

Yay! Murphy is only two points behind Rubio! We can win this seat.

lol joking a bit.

But seriously, these numbers do not look too far off.
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QE
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 05:42:20 pm »
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Colorado... Wat.
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 05:44:19 pm »
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Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 05:48:43 pm »
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Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 05:50:16 pm »
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Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.

True, there's no way Hassan is only leading by just 12.
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 06:27:34 pm »
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idontbelieveyou.gif
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 06:34:37 pm »
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Okaaaaay.

Not sure why NC is the least believable one here. I'd say NH, MO, CO, IL, and WI are far less believable.
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 06:35:32 pm »
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Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.

I think New Hampshire is most certainly correct since's it's quickly becoming the next Vermont on all levels.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2016, 06:39:23 pm »
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Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.

I think New Hampshire is most certainly correct since's it's quickly becoming the next Vermont on all levels.

I know that (and the race is certainly Safe D), but even Ayotte isn't going to lose by more than 6 points.
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2016, 09:08:00 pm »
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Junk poll!
- IN (Young could be up but not by that much), AZ (not so close), CO (not so close), NH (this race is almost tied, not +12 WTF) and WI (Feingold and Johnson are not tied) are definitely off.
- OH, IA, IL, PA and NV are about right.
- MO (Kander up by that much?), NC (Ross up by that much?) and FL (so close?)... could be true, but color me skeptical.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 09:13:02 pm by Comrade David »Logged
DavidB.
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2016, 09:40:20 pm »
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538 adjusted them all by R+1, which means Johnson actually leads in the WI poll. LMAO.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2016, 10:06:16 pm »
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Good numbers for the Democrats on average.
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2016, 10:06:54 pm »
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About half junk polls and half correct polls.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2016, 03:11:36 pm »
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Today's numbers (Oct 26-Nov 1):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view

Indiana: 51% Young (R), 46% Bayh (D) (R+1)
Florida: 49% Rubio (R), 47% Murphy (D) (no change)
Arizona: 50% McCain (R), 44% Kirkpatrick (D) (R+3)
Ohio: 57% Portman (R), 39% Strickland (D) (R+3)
Iowa: 56% Grassley (R), 41% Judge (D) (no change)
Wisconsin: 50% Johnson (R), 48% Feingold (D) (R+2)


Missouri: 50% Kander (D), 46% Blunt (R) (R+2)
Illinois: 55% Duckworth (D), 39% Kirk (R) (R+3)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 38% Ayotte (R) (no change)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 43% Burr (R) (no change)
Pennsylvania: 50% McGinty (D), 46% Toomey (R) (D+1)
Colorado: 49% Bennet (D), 47% Glenn (R) (no change)


Nevada: 47% Heck (R), 47% Masto (D) (no change)

Also, their Louisiana numbers: 23% Kennedy (R), 21% Fayard (D), 13% Boustany (R), 13% Campbell (D), 12% Fleming (R), 4% Maness (R), 2% Duke (R)
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 03:13:26 pm by TN Volunteer »Logged

Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 03:49:58 pm »
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I hope a Feingold loss is not a deciding factor. He is a strong candidate & did well throughout the race. But looks like all those M of $ of Negative ads with little to no support from Dems narrowed this race.

Dems have themselves to blame for a Feingold loss!
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 03:51:02 pm »
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Louisiana looks junk. No way Fayard finishes ahead of Campbell.
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I've been trying to tell you guys. Clinton's win is going to be massive. Imagine Obama's numbers with minorities, four more years of minority population growth, and Clinton out-performing him by >5% with white voters. No state will be safe.

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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 03:52:58 pm »
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Louisiana looks junk. No way Fayard finishes ahead of Campbell.

Campbell is not a friend of the oil industry. That matters in LA.
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2016, 04:14:33 pm »
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A tracker for Senate races? Shocked

God help us all.
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2016, 05:11:39 pm »
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Louisiana looks junk. No way Fayard finishes ahead of Campbell.

Campbell is not a friend of the oil industry. That matters in LA.
Just found this. Did not know that about Campbell. From what I know, and from what Miles tells me, I though Campbell would be the much stronger Democrat, as Fayard's base seems to be only White, New Orleans-area Democrats, whereas Campbell seems to have nearly all the Black vote locked down, plus many of the White Democrats. The results of next week's jungle primary will be very interesting, to say the least.
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I've been trying to tell you guys. Clinton's win is going to be massive. Imagine Obama's numbers with minorities, four more years of minority population growth, and Clinton out-performing him by >5% with white voters. No state will be safe.

Silent Cal
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2016, 06:53:13 pm »
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Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.
Based on the other polls that came out today, Wisconsin looks about right. Also, a CBS/Yougov found the same colorado result a few days ago. #TIGHTENING
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2016, 02:00:24 pm »
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Today's numbers (Oct 27-Nov 2):

Indiana: 51% Young (R), 44% Bayh (D) (R+2)
Florida: 49% Rubio (R), 48% Murphy (D) (D+1)
Arizona: 50% McCain (R), 44% Kirkpatrick (D) (no change)
Ohio: 57% Portman (R), 40% Strickland (D) (D+1)
Iowa: 57% Grassley (R), 40% Judge (D) (R+2)


Missouri: 51% Kander (D), 45% Blunt (R) (D+2)
Illinois: 55% Duckworth (D), 40% Kirk (R) (R+1)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 37% Ayotte (R) (D+1)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 44% Burr (R) (R+1)
Pennsylvania: 50% McGinty (D), 46% Toomey (R) (no change)
Colorado: 50% Bennet (D), 46% Glenn (R) (D+2)
Nevada: 48% Cortez-Masto (D), 47% Heck (R) (D+1)


Wisconsin: 48% Johnson (R), 48% Feingold (D) (D+2)

Louisiana numbers: 21% Kennedy (R), 21% Fayard (D), 13% Boustany (R), 13% Campbell (D), 12% Fleming (R), 5% Maness (R), 3% Duke (R)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 02:06:05 pm »
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Can't wait for Survey Monkey to become the new NH gold standard next Tuesday!
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2016, 02:09:53 pm »
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I know this is a junk poll, but we missed a golden opportunity to take out Little Marco.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2016, 02:10:20 pm »
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This is going nowhere. Junk polls!
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